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Caernarfon Town vs Penybont Result & Analysis

Date: 20/09/2025
Time: 16:15
Final 1-2
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Vs
42%
25%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Caernarfon Town win✗ Miss
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Penybont win✓ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-652W00D13L22D61W52W20W11D31W52WH·BAR26/04H·CAR11/05A·HAV18/05A·CAR09/08H·LLA16/08A·FLI22/08H·BAL25/08A·HAV30/08H·BAR07/09A·BRI13/09
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.532.571.501.621.56
vs Stronger (3)0.672.671.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (26)2.271.352.831.251.791.43
vs Weaker (1)1.003.00--1.003.00
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L03L11D10W02L32W20W01L00D50WA·BAL19/04A·KAU10/07H·KAU17/07A·HAV08/08H·THE16/08A·BAR22/08H·LLA25/08H·GAP30/08A·BAL06/09H·FLI13/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.231.440.751.641.79
vs Stronger (6)0.672.170.671.000.673.33
vs Similar (24)1.751.001.620.691.911.36
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%010%120%222%319%412%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.5%
Under 2.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.6%
Under 3.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-1
8.7%
1-2 ✓
7.7%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
5.2%
1-0
5.2%
0-1
4.4%
Caernarfon Town goals ↓
Penybont goals →
01234
04.4%4.4%4.3%2.3%0.9%
15.2%11%7.7%4.0%1.6%
25.5%8.7%6.9%3.6%1.4%
33.3%5.2%4.1%2.2%0.9%
41.5%2.3%1.8%1.0%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caernarfon Town goals (down), columns = Penybont goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
Caernarfon Town is 0.08 points better than Penybont in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.32).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
Caernarfon Town is 0.54 goals better than Penybont in terms of goals scored per game (1.75 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
Caernarfon Town is 0.03 goals worse than Penybont in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D02L02L20W22D00D01L21W12LH·BAR26/04H·CAR11/05A·HAV18/05A·CAR09/08H·LLA16/08A·FLI22/08H·BAL25/08A·HAV30/08H·BAR07/09A·BRI13/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.830.930.790.560.88
vs Stronger (3)0.671.671.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.770.730.920.580.640.86
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L11D00D01L11D20W00D00D20WA·BAL19/04A·KAU10/07H·KAU17/07A·HAV08/08H·THE16/08A·BAR22/08H·LLA25/08H·GAP30/08A·BAL06/09H·FLI13/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.400.750.250.570.57
vs Stronger (6)0.500.830.330.670.671.00
vs Similar (24)0.710.290.850.150.550.45
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W00D11D20W41W30W20W10W10W40WH·BAR26/04H·CAR11/05A·HAV18/05A·CAR09/08H·LLA16/08A·FLI22/08H·BAL25/08A·HAV30/08H·BAR07/09A·BRI13/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.701.640.711.060.69
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (26)1.500.621.920.671.140.57
vs Weaker (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D01L00D10W01L21W00D01L00D30WA·BAL19/04A·KAU10/07H·KAU17/07A·HAV08/08H·THE16/08A·BAR22/08H·LLA25/08H·GAP30/08A·BAL06/09H·FLI13/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.690.501.071.21
vs Stronger (6)0.171.330.330.330.002.33
vs Similar (24)1.040.710.770.541.360.91
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.586.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and Penybont have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
2
CT wins
0
Draws
6
PEN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Caernarfon Town vs Penybont · H/A from CT
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/25APenybont Vs CT3-1
22/02/25HCT Vs Penybont3-2
02/11/24HCT Vs Penybont1-5
07/09/24APenybont Vs CT2-0
18/05/24HCT Vs Penybont3-1
04/11/23HCT Vs Penybont2-4
16/09/23APenybont Vs CT3-2
07/01/23APenybont Vs CT5-1

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25ABriton Ferry Vs CT2-5
07/09/25HCT Vs Barry Town3-1
30/08/25AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs CT1-1
25/08/25HCT Vs Bala Town2-0
22/08/25AFlint Town United Vs CT2-5
16/08/25HCT Vs llanelli AFC6-1
09/08/25ACardiff MET Vs CT2-2
18/05/25AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs CT3-1
11/05/25HCT Vs Cardiff MET0-0
26/04/25HCT Vs Barry Town5-2

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25HPEN Vs Flint Town United5-0
06/09/25ABala Town Vs PEN0-0
30/08/25HPEN Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-1
25/08/25HPEN Vs llanelli AFC2-0
22/08/25ABarry Town Vs PEN2-3
16/08/25HPEN Vs The New Saints0-2
08/08/25AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs PEN0-1
17/07/25HPEN Vs Kauno Žalgiris1-1
10/07/25AKauno Žalgiris Vs PEN3-0
19/04/25ABala Town Vs PEN3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.60
HomeWDWWW1.77
AwayLDWDW1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals3.503.733.25
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %66%73%58%
Over 3.5 %50%54%46%
Scored1.862.121.58
Conceded1.641.621.67
BTTS66%65%67%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners10.0010.00-
Cards7.007.00-
Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLDW1.94
HomeDLWLW2.00
AwayLLWWD1.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%58%58%
AVG goals2.642.422.85
Over 1.5 %66%58%73%
Over 2.5 %52%38%65%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.741.751.73
Conceded0.900.671.12
BTTS42%38%46%
Clean Sheet46%46%46%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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