Caernarfon Town hosts Penybont in the Wales Premier League, with the home side coming off a defeat against the away team last time out, losing 1-2. Penybont, on the other hand, won their last encounter 2-1. The model predicts a home win, which is the most likely outcome with a 46% probability. The away win probability stands at 30%, while the draw has a 24% chance.
The expected total number of goals is 3.5, with the most likely total goals being 3. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10% probability. Caernarfon Town has scored an average of 1.38 goals at home, while conceding the same amount, against opponents of similar strength. Penybont has scored 1.42 goals away, but conceded 1.75 goals, against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a 87.4% probability, providing a 13% edge. Other model selections include the home win (46%), the away win (30%), and the draw (24%). The home side has a 46% chance of winning, the draw a 24% chance, and the away side a 30% chance of winning. The model also suggests the home win (46%), the draw (24%), and the away win (30%) as selections.
Caernarfon Town's 1-2 loss to Penybont extends their winless run at home, following a defeat in their previous match against the same opponent. In a stunning upset, the away side secured a win, defying the pre-match favourite, Caernarfon Town, which had a 46% probability of winning. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with a probability of 87.4%, as the final score was 1-2, resulting in two goals.
Caernarfon Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.33 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.47 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 2.75 | 0.50 | 3.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.88 | 1.12 | 2.15 | 1.38 | 1.58 | 0.83 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Penybont| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.47 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 3.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.20 | 1.16 | 0.77 | 0.69 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Penybont goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 10% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Caernarfon Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.76 | 0.52 | 1.08 | 0.54 | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Penybont| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.44 | 0.60 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.67 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
Caernarfon Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.12 | 0.60 | 1.08 | 0.85 | 1.17 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Penybont| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 3.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.76 | 0.56 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87.4% | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +13.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 24/01/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 20/09/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 13/04/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 22/02/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 02/11/24 | H | 1-5 | |
| 07/09/24 | A | 2-0 |
Caernarfon Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 27/02/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 2-1 |
Penybont| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Barry Town | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 2 | The New Saints | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 2.8 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.6 | 0.2 | - |
| 3 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | - |
| 4 | Llandudno | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 3.6 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Penybont | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 2.2 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Cambrian & Clydach | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Briton Ferry | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Airbus UK | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 12 | Ammanford AFC | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2.6 | 100% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Trefelin | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 15 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 16 | Holywell | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 5.4 | 100% | 100% | 100% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 4.0 | - |