Caernarfon Town’s recent 3-game winning streak ends at home, yet the Pythia model still sees The New Saints as the clear favourite, assigning a 68% chance to an away win. The model’s confidence stems from Caernarfon’s stark home form: an average of zero goals scored and four conceded against stronger opposition, versus The New Saints’ away record of 2.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded against weaker opponents. The predicted outcome is an away victory, with the most likely scoreline 0-2 at 10.5%. The model expects a total of 3.2 goals, with a 22% probability that the match will end 3-goal total. Home win probability is 13%, draw 20%, away win 68%. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5% with a 5% edge), Under 7.5 (98.2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.8% with a 6% edge), Away +2 handicap (95.7% with a 3% edge), Under 6.5 (95.3% with a 4% edge), Home under 1.5 HT goals (93.6% with a 3% edge), and Home under 2.5 goals (93.3% with a 3% edge).
Results analysis
The New Saints continued their five-game winning streak, extending the run with a 3-2 victory over Caernarfon Town. The model’s favourite, an away win with a 68% probability, proved correct as the final score was 2-3, confirming the actual result. The model’s selections largely hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%) was a hit, Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%) hit, Under 7.5 (98.2%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%) hit, Away +2 handicap (95.7%) hit, Under 6.5 (95.3%) hit, Home under 1.5 HT goals (93.6%) hit, and Home under 2.5 goals (93.3%) hit. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every pick was accounted for without repetition.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Caernarfon Town win✗ Miss
12.6%
Avg Implied 17.1% · @ 5.29
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.94
Dafabet
5.60
1xBet
5.59
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Draw✗ Miss
19.6%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.04
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.46
Dafabet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
Betano
4.15
Superbet
4.15
The New Saints win✓ Hit
67.8%
Avg Implied 60.5% · @ 1.49
Edge
+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Dafabet
1.52
Superbet
1.51
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Caernarfon Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.20
2.13
1.40
1.80
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.67
0.00
4.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
2.16
1.08
2.29
1.21
2.00
0.91
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.43
0.73
2.57
0.79
2.31
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
2.45
0.72
2.57
0.79
2.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.3%
@ 1.17+6.4%
Under 1.5
15.7%
@ 4.12-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Under
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.0%
@ 1.59+5.2%
Under 2.5
37.0%
@ 2.17-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Under
Unibet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.24
Bet365
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Betano
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.8%
@ 2.46+3.7%
Under 3.5
59.2%
@ 1.45-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
Unibet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
@ 1.67+0.6%
No
44.8%
@ 2.02-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
No
Unibet
2.15
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.5%@ 7.20+4.3%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.22+3.6%
1-1
9.2%@ 7.55+3.3%
0-1
8.2%@ 7.30+2.1%
0-3
8.1%@ 10.15+3.8%
1-3
7.5%@ 10.37+3.2%
0-0
4.7%@ 12.61+1.2%
0-4
4.7%@ 18.41+2.3%
Caernarfon Town goals ↓
The New Saints goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
8.2%
10%
8.1%
4.7%
1
2.8%
9.2%
9.7%
7.5%
4.4%
2
1.7%
3.9%
4.5%
3.5%
2.0%
3
0.5%
1.2%
1.4%
1.1%
0.6%
4
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Caernarfon Town goals (down), columns = The New Saints goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Caernarfon Town is 0.67 points worse than The New Saints in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Caernarfon Town is 0.17 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Caernarfon Town is 1.00 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Caernarfon Town or Draw✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.36
Edge
-6.5%
13%
20%
68%
covers Caernarfon Town + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.60
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.40
SBO
2.39
10Bet
2.38
Caernarfon Town or The New Saints✓ Hit
80.4%
Avg Implied 78.7% · @ 1.16
Edge
+1.7%
13%
20%
68%
covers Caernarfon Town + The New Saints
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw or The New Saints✓ Hit
87.4%
Avg Implied 82.6% · @ 1.11
Edge
+4.8%
13%
20%
68%
covers Draw + The New Saints
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
60.3%
@ 1.51-0.6%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.36+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Under
Betano
2.47
Unibet
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
23.7%
@ 3.42-3.3%
Under
76.3%
@ 1.26+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.56
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 8.76-3.9%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.04+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.70
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.80
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Caernarfon Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 14.75-4.9%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
The New Saints over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.2%
@ 1.09+5.6%
Under
9.8%
@ 5.97-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.30
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Betano
5.60
The New Saints over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.4%
@ 1.52+6.6%
Under
32.6%
@ 2.36-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Under
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.46
Unibet
2.45
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.30
The New Saints over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
41.0%
@ 2.59+5.1%
Under
59.0%
@ 1.45-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.52
Pinnacle
2.51
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.43
The New Saints over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.5%
@ 5.07+2.1%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.14-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Betano
5.00
Bet365
4.50
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.11
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Caernarfon Town, so a minus line means Caernarfon Town give that many goals of a start and The New Saints receive them. At -1, Caernarfon Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Caernarfon Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Caernarfon Town)Actual: The New Saints
Caernarfon Town -2
1.1%
@ 34.00-1.7%
Draw -2
3.2%
@ 19.00-1.8%
The New Saints +2
95.7%
@ 1.03+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
34.00
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (Caernarfon Town)Actual: The New Saints
Caernarfon Town -1
4.3%
@ 10.10-4.1%
Draw -1
8.3%
@ 6.05-5.8%
The New Saints +1
87.4%
@ 1.10+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Handicap +1 (Caernarfon Town)Actual: Draw
Caernarfon Town +1
32.2%
@ 2.41-4.0%
Draw +1
22.1%
@ 3.49-2.9%
The New Saints -1
45.7%
@ 2.25+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.60
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.29
Unibet
2.28
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.65
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.00
Away
10Bet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Handicap +2 (Caernarfon Town)Actual: Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town +2
54.3%
@ 1.52-2.8%
Draw +2
20.3%
@ 4.19-0.3%
The New Saints -2
25.4%
@ 3.88+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
4.45
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.45
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.07
0.67
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.92
0.52
1.14
0.57
0.64
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.27
0.93
0.36
1.00
0.19
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.00
0.28
0.93
0.36
1.07
0.20
Clean sheet %
83% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.8%
@ 1.28+2.4%
Under 0.5
26.2%
@ 3.19-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Under
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.0%
@ 2.31+3.4%
Under 1.5
57.0%
@ 1.52-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.50
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.38
William Hil
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Under
Unibet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.54
William Hil
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 5.06-0.9%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.11+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
1xBet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
31.6%
@ 2.61-3.8%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.43+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.57
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 9.03-3.8%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.03+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
9.50
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
62.3%
@ 1.55+2.6%
Under
37.7%
@ 2.29-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.46
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.19
Betano
2.18
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
33.6%
@ 3.73+8.9%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.22-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.90
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.19
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 9.25-1.6%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Caernarfon Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.67
1.07
0.73
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.24
0.56
1.14
0.64
1.36
0.45
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.47
1.64
0.43
1.31
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.45
0.45
1.64
0.43
1.27
0.47
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.3%
@ 1.16+3.2%
Under 0.5
17.7%
@ 4.38-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Under
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.35
Superbet
4.25
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.9%
@ 1.83+1.5%
Under 1.5
48.1%
@ 1.87-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Under
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
27.0%
@ 3.56+1.3%
Under 2.5
73.0%
@ 1.24-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Superbet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
35.8%
@ 2.13-7.3%
Under
64.2%
@ 1.62+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 7.03-3.9%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.06+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.40
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 10.75-6.5%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.02
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
72.2%
@ 1.38+5.4%
Under
27.8%
@ 2.77-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.70
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.4%
@ 2.73+1.7%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.39-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.35
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 6.40-0.7%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.08+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
95.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.8%
1.06
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
90.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
87.4%
1.11
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
87.4%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
86.3%
1.08
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.3%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.15
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.11
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.16
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.4%
1.16
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
79.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.2%
1.16
Unibet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
76.3%
1.26
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.8%
1.28
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.0%
1.24
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
72.2%
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.37
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Caernarfon Town's squad is €1m less valuable than The New Saints's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and The New Saints have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and The New Saints have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Caernarfon Town and The New Saints have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell