Cailungo vs Pennarossa Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with Pennarossa’s 52% chance of triumph outweighing Cailungo’s 21% and the 27% draw probability. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open contest, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.9% chance. Cailungo’s home form shows a 4-goal average scored and 2-goal average conceded against similarly strong opposition, while Pennarossa, playing away, averages 4 goals scored and 2 conceded in such fixtures. Recent form hints that Cailungo is still recovering from a defeat, whereas Pennarossa has endured two straight losses before a win. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.6% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.4%. Home win 21%, draw 27%, away win 52%. These figures outline the likely shape of the match.

The upset came early as Cailungo edged Pennarossa 2-1, overturning the pre-match favourite - Pennarossa, who had a 52% chance of triumph. The model’s pick was therefore wrong. Cailungo’s win extended a run that had seen them come off a defeat, while Pennarossa, after two straight losses, had been expected to rally. The model’s selections proved accurate: the Over 1.5 goal market hit, and the Under 3.5 goal market also hit, each with probabilities of 74.6% and 73.4% respectively. The final score matched the most likely 2-goal outcome, though the predicted 1-1 draw was missed.