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Cailungo vs Pennarossa Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2025
Time: 19:15
Final 7-0
Cailungo
Cailungo
Vs
39%
26%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Cailungo and Pennarossa face a tightly contested clash, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 39% for Cailungo, 26% for a draw and 35% for Pennarossa, making the home side the slight favourite. The expected total of goals sits at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 12% probability. Cailungo, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Pennarossa, away against a similar side, averages 1.17 scored and 2.17 conceded. The model’s selection list includes Over 1.5 with an 82.4% probability, marked as a hit. No other outcomes are listed. This encounter remains balanced, with the slight edge resting on Cailungo’s home form and the high likelihood of a modest 1-1 finish.

Results analysis

The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on as Cailungo secured a 7-0 triumph over Pennarossa, extending their recent winless streak into a decisive victory. The model had favoured a Home win with a 39% probability, and that call was correct. Its single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 82.4% probability. The final score of 7-0 matched the actual result of a Home win, confirming the model’s accuracy. All selections were settled, and the outcome aligned with the model’s expectations, underscoring its reliability in this fixture.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cailungo win✓ Hit
39.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CailungoCailungo

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L12L10W03L01L20W02L12L11D12LH·FOL02/02A·TRE08/02H·MUR16/02H·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03H·FIO08/03A·VIR15/03H·JUV30/03A·SAN05/04H·TRE13/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.972.530.932.531.002.53
vs Stronger (23)0.743.090.753.000.733.18
vs Similar (7)1.710.711.670.671.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L03L12L10W22D11D03L42W01L13LH·COS01/02A·LA 08/02A·FAE15/02H·FIO23/02A·SAN02/03H·LIB08/03A·TRE15/03A·DOM30/03A·JUV05/04H·SAN12/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.802.270.672.270.932.27
vs Stronger (17)0.762.240.752.120.782.33
vs Similar (13)0.852.310.572.431.172.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
2-0
5.8%
0-1
5.8%
0-0
5.7%
Cailungo goals ↓
Pennarossa goals →
01234
05.7%5.8%5.1%2.5%0.9%
16.2%12%8.1%4.0%1.5%
25.8%8.7%6.5%3.2%1.2%
33.1%4.6%3.4%1.7%0.6%
41.2%1.8%1.4%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cailungo goals (down), columns = Pennarossa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Virtus
2.57
La Fiorita
2.40
Tre Fiori
1.89
Folgore
1.69
Cosmos
1.69
Tre Penne
1.56
San Giovanni
1.54
Fiorentino
1.39
Murata
1.26
Faetano
1.03
Juvenes / Dogana
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.87
Cailungo
0.77
Pennarossa
0.57
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo is 0.20 points better than Pennarossa in terms of average points per game (0.77 vs 0.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
La Fiorita
2.26
Virtus
2.20
Tre Fiori
1.97
Cosmos
1.91
San Giovanni
1.83
Tre Penne
1.53
Folgore
1.31
Cailungo
1.17
Murata
1.06
Fiorentino
1.06
Faetano
1.03
San Marino Academy
1.00
Domagnano
0.97
Libertas
0.97
Pennarossa
0.87
Juvenes / Dogana
0.81
Cailungo is 0.30 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 0.87).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.57
Virtus
0.60
Tre Fiori
0.91
Folgore
1.03
Tre Penne
1.09
Murata
1.10
Cosmos
1.11
Juvenes / Dogana
1.16
Fiorentino
1.21
San Giovanni
1.29
Domagnano
1.47
Faetano
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cailungo
2.20
San Marino Academy
2.27
Pennarossa
2.53
Cailungo is 0.33 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 2.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

CailungoCailungo

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

PennarossaPennarossa

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

CailungoCailungo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (39)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (11)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CailungoCailungo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L10W00D01L01L10W01L00D01L01LH·FOL02/02A·TRE08/02H·MUR16/02H·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03H·FIO08/03A·VIR15/03H·JUV30/03A·SAN05/04H·TRE13/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.100.401.270.400.93
vs Stronger (23)0.301.260.251.420.361.09
vs Similar (7)0.710.571.000.670.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L01L00D00D00D02L11D01L11DH·COS01/02A·LA 08/02A·FAE15/02H·FIO23/02A·SAN02/03H·LIB08/03A·TRE15/03A·DOM30/03A·JUV05/04H·SAN12/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.130.970.200.800.071.13
vs Stronger (17)0.121.060.120.620.111.44
vs Similar (13)0.150.850.291.000.000.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CailungoCailungo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L02L10W02L00D10W01L12L10W11DH·FOL02/02A·TRE08/02H·MUR16/02H·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03H·FIO08/03A·VIR15/03H·JUV30/03A·SAN05/04H·TRE13/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.430.531.270.601.60
vs Stronger (23)0.431.830.501.580.362.09
vs Similar (7)1.000.140.670.001.250.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D01L11D10W22D11D01L31W00D02LH·COS01/02A·LA 08/02A·FAE15/02H·FIO23/02A·SAN02/03H·LIB08/03A·TRE15/03A·DOM30/03A·JUV05/04H·SAN12/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.300.471.470.871.13
vs Stronger (17)0.651.180.621.500.670.89
vs Similar (13)0.691.460.291.431.171.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Cailungo and Pennarossa have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Cailungo and Pennarossa have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Cailungo and Pennarossa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Cailungo and Pennarossa have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
CAI wins
1
Draws
1
PEN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cailungo vs Pennarossa · H/A from CAI
DateH/AGameScore
22/12/24APennarossa Vs CAI0-4
09/03/24APennarossa Vs CAI0-2
26/11/23HCAI Vs Pennarossa0-0
05/03/23APennarossa Vs CAI3-0
22/10/22HCAI Vs Pennarossa2-1

CailungoCailungo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/25HCAI Vs Tre Fiori1-2
05/04/25ASan Marino Academy Vs CAI1-1
30/03/25HCAI Vs Juvenes / Dogana1-2
15/03/25AVirtus Vs CAI2-0
08/03/25HCAI Vs Fiorentino2-0
01/03/25HCAI Vs Domagnano0-1
22/02/25HCAI Vs San Giovanni0-3
16/02/25HCAI Vs Murata1-0
08/02/25ATre Penne Vs CAI2-1
02/02/25HCAI Vs Folgore1-3

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/04/25HPEN Vs San Marino Academy1-3
05/04/25AJuvenes / Dogana Vs PEN1-0
30/03/25ADomagnano Vs PEN2-4
15/03/25ATre Fiori Vs PEN3-0
08/03/25HPEN Vs Libertas1-1
02/03/25ASan Giovanni Vs PEN2-2
23/02/25HPEN Vs Fiorentino1-0
15/02/25AFaetano Vs PEN2-1
08/02/25ALa Fiorita Vs PEN3-0
01/02/25HPEN Vs Cosmos2-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cailungo
Cailungo
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL0.44
HomeLLWLL0.46
AwayWDLLD0.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%12%12%
AVG goals3.443.213.65
Over 1.5 %84%79%88%
Over 2.5 %70%71%69%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored0.700.710.69
Conceded2.742.502.96
BTTS36%38%35%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL0.48
HomeDLWDL0.52
AwayLDLWL0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%12%8%
AVG goals3.563.483.64
Over 1.5 %86%84%88%
Over 2.5 %72%64%80%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored0.760.760.76
Conceded2.802.722.88
BTTS42%44%40%
Clean Sheet14%16%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1La FioritaLa Fiorita3584
71%
2.4
7920+59
2.8
86%
60%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.30.6
-
2VirtusVirtus3077
80%
2.6
6618+48
2.8
87%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.6
-
3Tre FioriTre Fiori3566
57%
1.9
6932+37
2.9
83%
57%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.00.9
-
4CosmosCosmos3559
46%
1.7
6739+28
3.0
83%
60%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5San GiovanniSan Giovanni3554
40%
1.5
6445+19
3.1
91%
57%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
6FolgoreFolgore3254
47%
1.7
4233+9
2.3
72%
38%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
7Tre PenneTre Penne3250
38%
1.6
4935+14
2.6
81%
41%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.1
-
8FiorentinoFiorentino3346
39%
1.4
3540-5
2.3
70%
45%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
9MurataMurata3139
35%
1.3
3334-1
2.2
52%
35%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.1
-
10FaetanoFaetano3334
30%
1.0
3466-32
3.0
79%
52%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
11Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3131
26%
1.0
2536-11
2.0
52%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.81.2
-
12DomagnanoDomagnano3029
20%
1.0
2944-15
2.4
70%
50%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.5
-
13LibertasLibertas3026
20%
0.9
2960-31
3.0
77%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
14CailungoCailungo3023
20%
0.8
3566-31
3.4
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
15PennarossaPennarossa3017
10%
0.6
2676-50
3.4
87%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.5
-
16San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3016
13%
0.5
3068-38
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.3
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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