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Cailungo vs Pennarossa Prediction & Stats

Date: 28/10/2026
Time: 19:45
Cailungo
Cailungo
Vs
36%
31%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Coppa Titano
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity will dominate this Coppa Titano clash, as Cailungo’s home record shows 0.67 goals for and 1.33 against, while Pennarossa’s away numbers are 1.5 for and 1.5 against against similar opposition. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance, a draw 31%, and an away win 33%. The expected total of 2.2 goals points to a tight affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% probability.

Cailungo enters after a defeat, while Pennarossa comes off two straight losses, both teams having struggled recently. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 5.5 (97.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Under 4.5 (92.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (90.3%), and Home under 2.5 goals (88.9%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cailungo win
36.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa win
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CailungoCailungo

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-612L12L23L13L12L12L16L16L11D12LA·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03A·TRE08/03H·FIO15/03A·COS21/03H·PEN07/04A·TRE11/04H·VIR19/04A·SAN25/04H·DOM28/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.802.370.752.310.862.43
vs Stronger (23)0.742.650.772.540.702.80
vs Similar (7)1.001.430.671.331.251.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-36pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D01L05L20W21W10W00D11D03L25LA·SAN01/03H·LIB07/03A·LA 14/03H·MUR21/03A·CAI07/04A·COS12/04H·JUV18/04A·TRE26/04A·COS29/04A·TRE30/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.831.151.380.942.18
vs Stronger (18)0.722.390.862.140.642.55
vs Similar (12)1.501.001.500.501.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.7%
Under 1.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.8%
Under 2.5
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.6%
Under 3.5
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.6%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
10.0%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.1%
0-2
6.2%
Cailungo goals ↓
Pennarossa goals →
01234
012%10.0%6.2%2.3%0.6%
111%15%7.3%2.7%0.7%
27.1%7.8%4.3%1.6%0.4%
32.8%3.1%1.7%0.6%0.2%
40.8%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cailungo goals (down), columns = Pennarossa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Cailungo is 0.50 points better than Pennarossa in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Cailungo is 0.50 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Cailungo is 1.00 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cailungo or Draw
67.5%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Cailungo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cailungo or Pennarossa
68.8%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Cailungo + Pennarossa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pennarossa
63.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
31%
33%
covers Draw + Pennarossa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cailungo over/under 0.5
Over
69.2%
Under
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5
Over
66.7%
Under
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5
Over
30.1%
Under
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Cailungo, so a minus line means Cailungo give that many goals of a start and Pennarossa receive them. At -1, Cailungo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cailungo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cailungo)
Cailungo -2
5.2%
Draw -2
10.7%
Pennarossa +2
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cailungo)
Cailungo -1
15.9%
Draw -1
20.4%
Pennarossa +1
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cailungo)
Cailungo +1
67.5%
Draw +1
19.0%
Pennarossa -1
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cailungo)
Cailungo +2
86.5%
Draw +2
9.4%
Pennarossa -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CailungoCailungo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D02L01L00D03L12L00D11DA·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03A·TRE08/03H·FIO15/03A·COS21/03H·PEN07/04A·TRE11/04H·VIR19/04A·SAN25/04H·DOM28/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.930.381.000.290.86
vs Stronger (23)0.301.170.381.150.201.20
vs Similar (7)0.430.140.330.330.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L02L10W00D00D00D00D01L11DA·SAN01/03H·LIB07/03A·LA 14/03H·MUR21/03A·CAI07/04A·COS12/04H·JUV18/04A·TRE26/04A·COS29/04A·TRE30/08
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.540.620.290.88
vs Stronger (18)0.220.940.430.860.091.00
vs Similar (12)0.670.500.670.330.670.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CailungoCailungo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L12L12L11D11D12L13L04L11D01LA·SAN22/02H·DOM01/03A·TRE08/03H·FIO15/03A·COS21/03H·PEN07/04A·TRE11/04H·VIR19/04A·SAN25/04H·DOM28/08
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.430.381.310.571.57
vs Stronger (23)0.431.480.381.380.501.60
vs Similar (7)0.571.290.331.000.751.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D03L10W21W10W00D11D02L14LA·SAN01/03H·LIB07/03A·LA 14/03H·MUR21/03A·CAI07/04A·COS12/04H·JUV18/04A·TRE26/04A·COS29/04A·TRE30/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.070.620.770.651.29
vs Stronger (18)0.501.440.431.290.551.55
vs Similar (12)0.830.500.830.170.830.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.8%-------
Under 6.599.1%-------
Away under 3.5 goals97.4%-------
Under 5.597.1%-------
Home under 3.5 goals96.8%-------
Under 4.591.9%-------
Away under 2.5 goals90.0%-------
Home under 2.5 goals88.5%-------
Home +2 handicap86.5%-------
Away +2 handicap84.1%-------
Under 3.580.4%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Cailungo and Pennarossa have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Cailungo and Pennarossa have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Cailungo and Pennarossa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Cailungo and Pennarossa have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
CAI wins
1
Draws
3
PEN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cailungo vs Pennarossa · H/A from CAI
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/26HCAI Vs Pennarossa1-2
07/12/25APennarossa Vs CAI2-0
18/04/25HCAI Vs Pennarossa7-0
22/12/24APennarossa Vs CAI0-4
09/03/24APennarossa Vs CAI0-2
26/11/23HCAI Vs Pennarossa0-0
05/03/23APennarossa Vs CAI3-0
22/10/22HCAI Vs Pennarossa2-1

CailungoCailungo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/08/26HCAI Vs Domagnano1-2
25/04/26ASan Marino Academy Vs CAI1-1
19/04/26HCAI Vs Virtus1-6
11/04/26ATre Penne Vs CAI6-1
07/04/26HCAI Vs Pennarossa1-2
21/03/26ACosmos Vs CAI2-1
15/03/26HCAI Vs Fiorentino1-3
08/03/26ATre Fiori Vs CAI3-2
01/03/26HCAI Vs Domagnano1-2
22/02/26ASan Giovanni Vs CAI2-1

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ATre Fiori Vs PEN5-2
29/04/26ACosmos Vs PEN3-0
26/04/26ATre Fiori Vs PEN1-1
18/04/26HPEN Vs Juvenes / Dogana0-0
12/04/26ACosmos Vs PEN0-1
07/04/26ACailungo Vs PEN1-2
21/03/26HPEN Vs Murata2-0
14/03/26ALa Fiorita Vs PEN5-0
07/03/26HPEN Vs Libertas0-1
01/03/26ASan Marino Academy Vs PEN1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cailungo
Cailungo
San-Marino: Coppa Titano
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDL0.64
HomeLLLLL0.52
AwayLLLLD0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%11%17%
AVG goals2.963.042.87
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %58%63%52%
Over 3.5 %28%30%26%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded1.962.001.91
BTTS54%59%48%
Clean Sheet16%11%22%
Corners5.00-5.00
Cards---
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Coppa Titano
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDLL0.88
HomeDLLWD1.00
AwayWWDLL0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%22%19%
AVG goals3.062.783.30
Over 1.5 %84%74%93%
Over 2.5 %64%52%74%
Over 3.5 %34%39%30%
Scored1.001.040.96
Conceded2.061.742.33
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet16%30%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FolgoreFolgore13
100%
3.0
50+5
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0005.00.0
-
2Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana13
100%
3.0
40+4
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0004.00.0
47%
3Tre FioriTre Fiori13
100%
3.0
52+3
7.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1015.02.0
64%
4FiorentinoFiorentino13
100%
3.0
20+2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.00.0
40%
5Tre PenneTre Penne13
100%
3.0
32+1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.02.0
60%
6DomagnanoDomagnano13
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.0
-
7LibertasLibertas11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
49%
8CosmosCosmos11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
36%
9La FioritaLa Fiorita11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
10VirtusVirtus11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.00.0
-
11San GiovanniSan Giovanni10
0%
0.0
23-1
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.03.0
53%
12CailungoCailungo10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
13San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
51%
14PennarossaPennarossa10
0%
0.0
25-3
7.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.05.0
-
15FaetanoFaetano10
0%
0.0
04-4
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.04.0
-
16MurataMurata10
0%
0.0
05-5
5.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.05.0
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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