Cailungo’s recent dip, a 1-1 draw against San Marino Academy, contrasts sharply with Tre Penne’s 3-1 win over Domagnano, setting the stage for an away favourite. The model rates an away win at 78 %, a home win only 7 % and a draw 15 %, making the most likely result an away victory. The average goal tally is 3.4, with the expected total of three goals carrying a 22 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2, giving Tre Penne a 11.8 % chance of that exact outcome.
Cailungo, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.75 goals scored and 2.58 conceded. Tre Penne, on the road to a weaker opponent, averages 2.8 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Over 19.5 fouls (99.1 %), Away +2 handicap (98.0 %), Under 7.5 (97.6 %), Over 21.5 fouls (97.4 %), Home under 2.5 goals (96.2 %), Under 6.5 (94.1 %), and Over 23.5 fouls (93.9 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cailungo win
7.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne win
78.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cailungo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
2.37
0.75
2.31
0.86
2.43
vs Stronger (23)
0.74
2.65
0.77
2.54
0.70
2.80
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.43
0.67
1.33
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Penne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.67
2.13
0.53
2.27
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.09
0.73
0.83
0.67
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (19)
2.84
0.63
3.00
0.44
2.70
0.80
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.5%
Under 1.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
68.7%
Under 2.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
47.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.2%
0-3
10.3%
1-2
8.6%
1-3
7.9%
0-1
7.4%
0-4
7.1%
1-1
6.8%
1-4
5.5%
Cailungo goals ↓
Tre Penne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
7.4%
11%
10%
7.1%
1
1.6%
6.8%
8.6%
7.9%
5.5%
2
0.9%
2.4%
3.3%
3.1%
2.1%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cailungo goals (down), columns = Tre Penne goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Cailungo is 1.80 points worse than Tre Penne in terms of average points per game (0.37 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Cailungo is 1.38 goals worse than Tre Penne in terms of goals scored per game (0.77 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Cailungo is 1.77 goals worse than Tre Penne in terms of goals conceded per game (2.37 vs 0.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cailungo
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Tre Penne
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cailungo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (37)
5.0
-
5.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Penne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.0
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
34.0
34.0
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (31)
10.0
10.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
34.0
34.0
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
2%
4%
0%
100%
100%
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
98%
96%
100%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
21.2%
Under 9.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.4%
Under 3.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cailungo or Draw
21.6%
Avg Implied -
7%
15%
78%
covers Cailungo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cailungo or Tre Penne
85.5%
Avg Implied -
7%
15%
78%
covers Cailungo + Tre Penne
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Tre Penne
92.9%
Avg Implied -
7%
15%
78%
covers Draw + Tre Penne
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cailungo over/under 0.5
Over
53.7%
Under
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5
Over
93.7%
Under
6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5
Over
52.4%
Under
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 3.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cailungo, so a minus line means Cailungo give that many goals of a start and Tre Penne receive them. At -1, Cailungo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cailungo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cailungo)
Cailungo -2
0.4%
Draw -2
1.7%
Tre Penne +2
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cailungo)
Cailungo -1
2.1%
Draw -1
5.0%
Tre Penne +1
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cailungo)
Cailungo +1
21.6%
Draw +1
19.6%
Tre Penne -1
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cailungo)
Cailungo +2
41.3%
Draw +2
21.5%
Tre Penne -2
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cailungo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.93
0.38
1.00
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.30
1.17
0.38
1.15
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.14
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Penne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.37
1.40
0.13
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.27
0.50
0.17
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
0.42
2.00
0.11
1.10
0.70
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.8%
Under 0.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.6%
Under 1.5
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.5%
Under 2.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 HT
Over
26.1%
Under
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 HT
Over
75.0%
Under
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 HT
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 HT
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cailungo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.43
0.38
1.31
0.57
1.57
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
1.48
0.38
1.38
0.50
1.60
vs Similar (7)
0.57
1.29
0.33
1.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Tre Penne) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tre Penne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.30
0.73
0.40
1.40
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
0.33
0.50
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.21
1.00
0.33
1.60
0.10
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Cailungo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
86.0%
Under 0.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
55.6%
Under 1.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.2%
Under 2.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cailungo over/under 0.5 2H
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cailungo over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 0.5 2H
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 1.5 2H
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tre Penne over/under 2.5 2H
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
78.8%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 HT goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 HT goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 0.5 2H goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Cailungo and Tre Penne have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Cailungo and Tre Penne have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Cailungo and Tre Penne have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Cailungo and Tre Penne have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Domagnano
Libertas
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata