Cambrian & Clydach are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 78% chance of a home win, 14% for a draw and 8% for a Holywell victory. The prediction that the match will finish 2-0 for the hosts, with a 9.4% probability, reflects their solid home form - scoring an average of one goal and conceding only 0.75 against similar opposition - while Holywell, who have averaged 1.75 goals scored and 2.38 conceded on the road, are struggling after five straight defeats. The expected total goals is 3.8, with the most likely total of three goals carrying a 21% probability. The model’s selections include an Away under 3.5 goals at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Home +2 handicap at 97.4%, Under 7.5 at 96.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.6%, Home over 0.5 goals at 94.5% and Away under 2.5 goals at 93.7%. The home side’s recent draw against Penybont and Holywell’s heavy loss to Airbus UK underline the advantage the hosts hold.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cambrian & Clydach win
77.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Holywell win
8.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cambrian & Clydach
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.93
2.00
0.93
2.44
0.94
vs Stronger (20)
2.45
1.15
2.44
1.11
2.45
1.18
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.56
1.00
0.75
2.40
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
2.00
2.79
1.57
1.62
2.38
vs Stronger (11)
2.55
1.36
3.17
0.83
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.27
2.20
2.86
2.00
1.75
2.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.9%
Under 1.5
10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
73.2%
Under 2.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
52.7%
Under 3.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.7%
No
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.4%
3-0
9.1%
2-1
8.5%
3-1
8.2%
4-0
6.6%
1-1
6.4%
4-1
6.0%
1-0
5.9%
Cambrian & Clydach goals ↓
Holywell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
1.4%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
1
5.9%
6.4%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
2
9.4%
8.5%
3.8%
1.1%
0.3%
3
9.1%
8.2%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
4
6.6%
6.0%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cambrian & Clydach goals (down), columns = Holywell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Cambrian & Clydach is 1.33 points better than Holywell in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Cambrian & Clydach is 0.17 goals worse than Holywell in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Cambrian & Clydach is 3.00 goals better than Holywell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 4.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cambrian & Clydach or Draw
91.9%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
8%
covers Cambrian & Clydach + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach or Holywell
85.7%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
8%
covers Cambrian & Clydach + Holywell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Holywell
22.4%
Avg Implied -
78%
14%
8%
covers Draw + Holywell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5
Over
94.5%
Under
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 3.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5
Over
59.4%
Under
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cambrian & Clydach, so a minus line means Cambrian & Clydach give that many goals of a start and Holywell receive them. At -1, Cambrian & Clydach must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cambrian & Clydach win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cambrian & Clydach)
Cambrian & Clydach -2
37.8%
Draw -2
20.8%
Holywell +2
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cambrian & Clydach)
Cambrian & Clydach -1
58.6%
Draw -1
19.0%
Holywell +1
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cambrian & Clydach)
Cambrian & Clydach +1
91.9%
Draw +1
5.5%
Holywell -1
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cambrian & Clydach)
Cambrian & Clydach +2
97.4%
Draw +2
2.0%
Holywell -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cambrian & Clydach
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.93
0.50
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (20)
1.20
0.70
1.33
0.78
1.09
0.64
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.22
0.25
0.00
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.50
0.71
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.36
1.83
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.20
1.43
1.29
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
Under 0.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.0%
Under 1.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
Under 2.5
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5 HT
Over
37.5%
Under
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cambrian & Clydach
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.40
1.07
0.43
1.44
0.38
vs Stronger (20)
1.25
0.45
1.11
0.33
1.36
0.55
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.33
0.75
0.75
1.60
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.29
0.86
0.94
1.38
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.00
1.33
0.83
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.00
1.43
0.71
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambrian & Clydach) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
85.4%
Under 0.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.3%
Under 1.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.2%
Under 2.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 0.5 2H
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 1.5 2H
Over
38.1%
Under
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambrian & Clydach over/under 2.5 2H
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.7%
Under
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Cambrian & Clydach and Holywell have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Cambrian & Clydach and Holywell have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Cambrian & Clydach and Holywell have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Cambrian & Clydach and Holywell have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin