Cambuur’s recent five games ended in four losses and a win, a run that left them struggling to score and conceding an average of 4.5 goals per match. NEC Nijmegen, however, has returned from a win and averages 3.0 goals scored while conceding only 1.25 away. The model therefore rates an away win as the clear favourite, giving it a 69% probability, with a home win at 13% and a draw at 17%. The expected total is 3.9 goals, centring on a 3-goal total at 20% probability, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-2 for NEC, with an 8.9% chance. The home side’s form shows 1.5 goals scored and 4.5 conceded against stronger opposition, whereas the away side’s 3.0 scored and 1.25 conceded against weaker teams underline the advantage. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.2% (edge 3%), Away +2 handicap at 98.1% (edge 7%), Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.6% (edge 6%), Away over 0.5 goals at 97.2% (edge 8%), Home under 1.5 HT goals at 95.4% (edge 8%), Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.7% (edge 7%), and Draw or Away at 94.1% (edge 11%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cambuur win
13.4%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.42
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.81
Betano
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Draw
17.4%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.92
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.14
Betano
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.90
NEC Nijmegen win
69.2%
Avg Implied 63.9% · @ 1.45
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
William Hil
1.44
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cambuur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.67
1.81
1.62
1.86
1.71
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
4.50
1.50
4.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.86
1.46
1.86
1.21
1.86
1.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.53
1.80
1.53
1.93
1.53
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
1.91
1.60
1.80
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (10)
2.00
1.40
2.20
1.60
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (9)
2.22
1.22
1.60
1.20
3.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
90.6%
@ 1.10+5.0%
Under 1.5
9.4%
@ 6.54-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Under
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.25
Betano
6.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
74.4%
@ 1.35+5.1%
Under 2.5
25.6%
@ 3.05-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.20
Bet365
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Betano
3.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
54.4%
@ 1.94+5.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
@ 1.86-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Unibet
1.96
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Under
10Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
65.1%
@ 1.49+2.9%
No
34.9%
@ 2.46-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
William Hil
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
No
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.50
1xBet
2.47
William Hil
2.45
Betano
2.42
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.9%@ 8.18+3.4%
1-3
8.0%@ 9.64+3.4%
0-2
7.6%@ 9.43+2.8%
1-1
7.2%@ 9.82+2.6%
0-3
6.8%@ 10.93+2.7%
1-4
5.4%@ 14.64+2.4%
2-2
5.2%@ 12.86+1.7%
0-1
4.9%@ 10.96+0.8%
Cambuur goals ↓
NEC Nijmegen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
4.9%
7.6%
6.8%
4.6%
1
1.8%
7.2%
8.9%
8.0%
5.4%
2
1.4%
3.8%
5.2%
4.7%
3.2%
3
0.6%
1.5%
2.0%
1.8%
1.2%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cambuur goals (down), columns = NEC Nijmegen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Cambuur is 0.70 points worse than NEC Nijmegen in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Cambuur is 1.07 goals worse than NEC Nijmegen in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Cambuur is 0.54 goals worse than NEC Nijmegen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.10 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cambuur
For 4.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 14.4 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NEC Nijmegen
For 6.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cambuur
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.8
3.7
3.7
3.8
26.5
26.2
26.8
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
8.5
-
1.5
1.5
-
23.0
23.0
-
vs Similar (48)
10.2
10.6
9.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
26.6
26.4
26.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
68%
62%
48%
40%
56%
76%
72%
79%
% under line
35%
32%
38%
52%
60%
44%
24%
28%
21%
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.1
9.6
3.7
3.8
3.5
24.2
24.0
24.4
vs Stronger (15)
9.2
8.6
9.9
4.4
5.4
3.3
24.8
26.1
23.4
vs Similar (20)
10.6
10.8
10.4
3.8
3.2
4.2
24.8
22.9
26.1
vs Weaker (15)
9.5
11.0
8.0
2.8
2.9
2.7
22.9
23.3
22.4
% over line
52%
45%
58%
46%
50%
42%
67%
59%
73%
% under line
48%
55%
42%
54%
50%
58%
33%
41%
27%
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.3%
@ 1.67+0.2%
Under 9.5
44.7%
@ 2.05-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.67
Under
Unibet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
44.2%
Under 3.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
59.3%
Under 21.5
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cambuur or Draw
16.2%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.65
Edge
-19.6%
13%
17%
69%
covers Cambuur + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.69
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.60
Cambuur or NEC Nijmegen
89.6%
Avg Implied 81.5% · @ 1.16
Edge
+8.1%
13%
17%
69%
covers Cambuur + NEC Nijmegen
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Draw or NEC Nijmegen
94.1%
Avg Implied 82.7% · @ 1.15
Edge
+11.5%
13%
17%
69%
covers Draw + NEC Nijmegen
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.14
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cambuur over/under 0.5
Over
62.7%
@ 1.37-4.9%
Under
37.3%
@ 2.85+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Under
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.80
Betano
2.80
Cambuur over/under 1.5
Over
25.9%
@ 2.76-7.6%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.39+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.82
Betano
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Cambuur over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
@ 6.84-5.8%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.08+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.20
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Cambuur over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
@ 18.33-3.4%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5
Over
97.2%
@ 1.05+8.0%
Under
2.8%
@ 8.64-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.50
1xBet
9.00
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.20
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5
Over
87.1%
@ 1.34+17.7%
Under
12.9%
@ 3.02-17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.20
1xBet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5
Over
69.1%
@ 2.09+24.5%
Under
30.9%
@ 1.68-24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
NEC Nijmegen over/under 3.5
Over
47.7%
@ 3.76+23.0%
Under
52.3%
@ 1.23-23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.85
1xBet
3.84
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cambuur, so a minus line means Cambuur give that many goals of a start and NEC Nijmegen receive them. At -1, Cambuur must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cambuur win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cambuur)
Cambuur -2
0.5%
@ 32.50-2.4%
Draw -2
1.5%
@ 16.00-4.4%
NEC Nijmegen +2
98.1%
@ 1.03+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Cambuur)
Cambuur -1
1.9%
@ 11.50-6.0%
Draw -1
3.9%
@ 7.50-8.1%
NEC Nijmegen +1
94.1%
@ 1.13+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
10.50
10Bet
9.50
Draw
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Away
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
Handicap +1 (Cambuur)
Cambuur +1
16.2%
@ 2.60-18.2%
Draw +1
15.3%
@ 4.00-7.2%
NEC Nijmegen -1
68.5%
@ 2.08+25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
Away
Unibet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.00
Handicap +2 (Cambuur)
Cambuur +2
31.5%
@ 1.65-22.8%
Draw +2
19.0%
@ 4.38-1.5%
NEC Nijmegen -2
49.5%
@ 3.56+24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.20
Away
Unibet
3.65
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cambuur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.44
1.00
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.71
0.75
0.50
0.71
0.93
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
0.73
1.13
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.18
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.20
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
0.40
0.80
1.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.18-1.9%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 4.35+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
10Bet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.6%
@ 1.93+4.3%
Under 1.5
47.4%
@ 1.80-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.85
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 3.95-8.7%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.21+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
1xBet
3.92
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cambuur over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.4%
@ 2.25-8.0%
Under
66.6%
@ 1.59+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.28
1xBet
2.23
10Bet
2.15
Under
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Cambuur over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.6%
@ 7.33-8.0%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.06+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Cambuur over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 HT
Over
64.4%
@ 1.43-0.5%
Under
35.6%
@ 2.65+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.44
1xBet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Under
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.65
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.57
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 HT
Over
26.4%
@ 2.98-4.7%
Under
73.6%
@ 1.34+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.10
Betano
3.05
1xBet
2.90
10Bet
2.85
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.3%
@ 7.42-7.2%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.06+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
8.00
1xBet
7.70
10Bet
7.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cambuur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.38
0.62
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.14
0.71
1.36
0.50
0.93
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
1.07
0.40
1.07
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (9)
1.44
0.67
1.20
0.40
1.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
88.8%
@ 1.10+4.2%
Under 0.5
11.2%
@ 6.06-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
10Bet
6.00
Betano
5.90
William Hil
5.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
58.1%
@ 1.57-1.0%
Under 1.5
41.9%
@ 2.27+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
1xBet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.37
Unibet
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
32.4%
@ 2.74-1.5%
Under 2.5
67.6%
@ 1.41+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
1xBet
2.81
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Betano
2.65
Under
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.38
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cambuur over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.9%
@ 1.92-4.8%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.81+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Cambuur over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.9%
@ 5.32-8.5%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.12+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Cambuur over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
@ 11.00-6.0%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.02+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 2H
Over
77.1%
@ 1.27+4.2%
Under
22.9%
@ 3.42-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Under
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.40
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 2H
Over
39.8%
@ 2.26-1.4%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.58+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.55
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 2H
Over
17.8%
@ 4.98-0.7%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.14+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
Away +2 handicap
98.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+6.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Away over 0.5 goals
97.2%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+8.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
+8.0%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+7.2%
Draw or Away
94.1%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+11.5%
Away +1 handicap
94.1%
1.13
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
-
+14.1%
Home under 2.5 goals
92.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.06
+5.8%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
-
-
+8.5%
Under 7.5
91.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-3.8%
Over 1.5
90.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
+5.0%
Home or Away
89.6%
1.16
William Hil
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+8.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.10
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+4.2%
Away over 1.5 goals
87.1%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+17.7%
Under 5.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.3%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+8.7%
Under 6.5
82.5%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.03
-
-8.3%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.14
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-
-
+0.7%
Away over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.27
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
+4.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.7%
1.18
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.17
-1.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
74.4%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.32
+5.1%
Under 4.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
74.1%
1.39
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
+7.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.34
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
-
+4.7%
Under 25.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cambuur
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafik El Arguioui50%
Ilyes Hamache25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicky Souren50%
Lucas Jetten25%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Binder33%
Nicky Souren25%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafik El Arguioui75%
Sami Bouhoudane25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
NEC Nijmegen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kaj Sierhuis40%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Tjaronn Chery29%
Emre Mor17%
Clement Bischoff14%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brayann Pereira43%
Isak Hansen Aarøen33%
Tobias Storm33%
Willum Thor Willumsson25%
Almugera Kabar25%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Jamiro Monteiro17%
Dušan Tadić14%
Noé Lebreton14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Tjaronn Chery0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dušan Tadić57%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Tjaronn Chery14%
Clement Bischoff14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tjaronn Chery57%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Emre Mor17%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Kaj Sierhuis0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Cambuur's squad is €41m less valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€12m vs €54m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Cambuur's attack is €19m less valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€3m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Cambuur's midfield is €4m less valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€1m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Cambuur's defence is €18m less valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€8m vs €26m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht