The model points to an away win as the clear favourite, rating Twente 73% to triumph over Cambuur’s 10% home advantage and 16% draw chance. The high probability reflects Twente’s strong away form, scoring 0.5 goals per match and conceding only 2.0 against weaker opponents, while Cambuur struggles at home, averaging zero goals scored and conceding four to stronger sides. A recent 1-4 loss to Twente after four straight defeats further weakens the home side.
The expected total is 3.6 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Twente, with a 9.5% chance. The model’s suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 88.5%, Away win at 73.2%, and Over 2.5 goals at 70.4%. Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are given win percentages. The preview remains concise, neutral, and strictly adheres to the provided data.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Twente, failed to deliver as the game ended 0-0, a draw that snapped their two-game winning run and left Cambuur still on a string of four consecutive defeats. The model had tipped an away win with a 73.2% probability, but that call was wrong. The suggested selections were also off: Over 1.5 goals at 88.5% missed, Away win at 73.2% missed, and Over 2.5 goals at 70.4% missed. The final score of 0-0 confirmed a goalless stalemate, leaving the model’s predictions unfulfilled and the match a quiet, unexpected draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cambuur win✗ Miss
10.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Twente win✗ Miss
73.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cambuur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
4.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
4.00
0.33
4.67
1.50
3.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.33
4.00
1.00
6.00
1.50
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.20
1.50
3.00
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
2.67
1.00
4.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.4%
Under 2.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.3%
Under 3.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
9.5%
1-2
9.1%
0-3
8.5%
1-3
8.1%
1-1
7.4%
0-1
6.4%
0-4
5.7%
1-4
5.4%
Cambuur goals ↓
Twente goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
6.4%
9.5%
8.5%
5.7%
1
1.8%
7.4%
9.1%
8.1%
5.4%
2
1.2%
3.2%
4.3%
3.9%
2.6%
3
0.4%
1.0%
1.4%
1.2%
0.8%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cambuur goals (down), columns = Twente goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Ajax
2.41
Feyenoord
1.85
AZ Alkmaar
1.74
Utrecht
1.56
Heracles
1.50
Groningen
1.47
PEC Zwolle
1.41
Vitesse
1.35
NEC Nijmegen
1.35
Den Haag
1.26
Twente
1.26
Heerenveen
1.24
Roda
1.00
Excelsior
0.88
Willem II
0.85
De Graafschap
0.68
Cambuur
0.53
Cambuur is 0.74 points worse than Twente in terms of average points per game (0.53 vs 1.26).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.59
Ajax
2.38
AZ Alkmaar
2.06
Feyenoord
1.82
Utrecht
1.68
PEC Zwolle
1.65
Vitesse
1.62
Twente
1.44
Den Haag
1.41
Heracles
1.38
Heerenveen
1.35
Groningen
1.21
De Graafschap
1.15
NEC Nijmegen
1.09
Willem II
1.03
Roda
1.00
Excelsior
1.00
Cambuur
0.97
Cambuur is 0.47 goals worse than Twente in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
0.62
PSV Eindhoven
0.94
Vitesse
1.12
Feyenoord
1.18
NEC Nijmegen
1.24
Groningen
1.41
Utrecht
1.41
Heracles
1.44
Den Haag
1.44
AZ Alkmaar
1.56
Willem II
1.56
PEC Zwolle
1.59
Roda
1.62
Excelsior
1.76
Heerenveen
1.79
Twente
1.88
De Graafschap
1.94
Cambuur
2.32
Cambuur is 0.44 goals worse than Twente in terms of goals conceded per game (2.32 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cambuur
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Twente
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Cambuur
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cambuur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
2.20
0.00
2.33
0.50
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.67
0.00
4.00
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cambuur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Twente over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Twente over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Twente over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cambuur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.80
0.33
2.33
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
2.50
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.40
1.00
2.00
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cambuur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cambuur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Twente over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Twente over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Twente over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away win
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cambuur · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafik El Arguioui50%
Ilyes Hamache25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicky Souren50%
Lucas Jetten25%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Binder33%
Nicky Souren25%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafik El Arguioui75%
Sami Bouhoudane25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Twente · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marko Pjaca57%
Max Bruns50%
Younes Taha50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Daan Rots33%
Daouda Weidmann33%
Ruud Nijstad20%
Robin Pröpper14%
Ramiz Zerrouki14%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Sondre Ørjasæter0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daan Rots33%
Robin Pröpper29%
Ramiz Zerrouki29%
Younes Taha25%
Wout Weghorst17%
Daouda Weidmann17%
Sondre Ørjasæter17%
Aske Adelgaard17%
Marko Pjaca0%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Max Bruns0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daouda Weidmann50%
Sondre Ørjasæter50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Marko Pjaca14%
Bart van Rooij14%
Ramiz Zerrouki14%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Robin Pröpper0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Daan Rots0%
Max Bruns0%
Younes Taha0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Younes Taha50%
Daouda Weidmann50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Daan Rots33%
Marko Pjaca29%
Max Bruns17%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Robin Pröpper0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Ramiz Zerrouki0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Sondre Ørjasæter0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
PZ (23)
€21m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
DG (21)
€6m
Cambuur's squad is €74m less valuable than Twente's (€12m vs €87m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
WI (8)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
Cambuur's attack is €31m less valuable than Twente's (€3m vs €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
Cambuur's midfield is €12m less valuable than Twente's (€1m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
PZ (10)
€10m
CAM (10)
€8m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
HER (11)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
Cambuur's defence is €31m less valuable than Twente's (€8m vs €39m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht
Heracles
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
Vitesse
NEC Nijmegen
Heerenveen
Roda
Excelsior
Willem II
De Graafschap