Cambuur’s recent slump - three straight losses and a 2-5 defeat to Feyenoord - leaves them vulnerable at home, especially against a side that has struggled on the road. Twente, on the other hand, has been more resilient away, conceding only one goal on average against weaker opponents, and the model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite. The probability of a Twente victory stands at 77 %, with a draw at 14 % and a home win at 9 %. The expected total of four goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 0-3 for Twente, a 8.4 % chance. Cambuur’s home form shows they average five conceded goals versus stronger teams, while Twente’s away form shows they average only one conceded goal. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.2 %, Away +2 handicap at 97.1 % (edge 3 %), Away over 0.5 goals at 95.1 % (edge 8 %), Under 7.5 at 94.8 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.4 % (edge 3 %) and Home under 2.5 goals at 92.2 % (edge 2 %).
Results analysis
Cambuur’s recent run of four defeats ended with a 1-4 loss to Twente, extending the away side’s two-game winning streak. The model’s favourite, an away win at 76%, proved correct as Twente secured the victory. The final score of 1-4 matched the expected outcome, and the most likely total of 6+ goals was surpassed, with Twente’s 4-goal haul pushing the match into the higher-scoring bracket. Every suggested selection hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.2%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Away +2 handicap at 96.8%, Under 7.5 at 95.3%, Away over 0.5 goals at 94.6%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 94.3%, and Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.8%. The model’s predictions were largely accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cambuur win✗ Miss
9.4%
Avg Implied 12.3% · @ 7.69
Edge
-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
1xBet
8.20
Pinnacle
8.18
Betfair
8.00
Draw✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied 16.9% · @ 5.58
Edge
-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.90
Pinnacle
5.78
Superbet
5.75
Twente win✓ Hit
75.8%
Avg Implied 70.9% · @ 1.33
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.35
Dafabet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cambuur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.67
1.87
1.47
1.87
1.87
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
5.00
2.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.86
1.55
1.86
1.21
1.87
1.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.20
2.07
0.71
2.06
1.62
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.67
2.00
0.00
1.40
2.00
vs Similar (13)
2.15
1.15
2.38
0.88
1.80
1.60
vs Weaker (11)
2.27
1.00
1.60
0.60
2.83
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.9%
@ 1.10+5.5%
Under 1.5
9.1%
@ 6.43-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Under
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Pinnacle
6.86
Superbet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.2%
@ 1.37+6.8%
Under 2.5
24.8%
@ 2.97-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.14
BetVictor
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.3%
@ 1.97+7.2%
Under 3.5
44.7%
@ 1.83-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
Pinnacle
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Under
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.85
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.6%
@ 1.61+3.1%
No
39.4%
@ 2.19-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
No
Superbet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Betano
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.5%@ 8.14+3.0%
0-2
8.4%@ 8.12+2.9%
1-3
8.3%@ 9.43+3.5%
0-3
8.2%@ 9.32+3.4%
1-1
6.4%@ 10.38+2.0%
1-4 ✓
6.0%@ 13.77+2.8%
0-4
6.0%@ 13.67+2.7%
0-1
5.2%@ 9.91+0.6%
Cambuur goals ↓
Twente goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
5.2%
8.4%
8.2%
6.0%
1
1.4%
6.4%
8.5%
8.3%
6.0%
2
1.0%
2.9%
4.3%
4.2%
3.0%
3
0.3%
1.0%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cambuur goals (down), columns = Twente goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Cambuur is 0.67 points worse than Twente in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Cambuur is 0.54 goals worse than Twente in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Cambuur is 0.92 goals worse than Twente in terms of goals conceded per game (2.10 vs 1.18).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cambuur
For 5.7 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 15.4 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Twente
For 7.1 · Against 4.4 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 9.8 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cambuur
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
9.9
3.8
3.7
3.9
26.7
26.4
27.0
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
vs Similar (49)
10.2
10.5
9.9
3.9
3.8
3.9
26.7
26.3
27.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
64%
64%
50%
40%
60%
78%
76%
80%
% under line
36%
36%
36%
50%
60%
40%
22%
24%
20%
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.3
3.5
3.1
3.8
20.6
19.5
21.6
vs Stronger (12)
11.0
8.8
12.6
3.3
3.0
3.6
21.8
21.8
21.9
vs Similar (19)
10.1
10.0
10.2
4.0
3.2
4.7
20.8
18.6
22.8
vs Weaker (19)
9.1
9.6
8.6
3.1
3.1
3.1
19.6
19.0
20.2
% over line
43%
36%
48%
42%
35%
48%
40%
36%
44%
% under line
57%
64%
52%
58%
65%
52%
60%
64%
56%
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.4
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Feyenoord
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
26.7
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.0
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Twente
20.8
Groningen
20.7
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
63.2%
@ 1.77+10.8%
Under 9.5
36.8%
@ 1.95-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.88
Superbet
1.85
Unibet
1.84
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
10Bet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.0%
@ 2.47+12.0%
Under 3.5
51.0%
@ 1.46-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.47
Unibet
2.40
Under
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.42
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
51.3%
@ 1.85+3.0%
Under 21.5
48.7%
@ 1.73-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Under
Superbet
1.73
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cambuur or Draw✗ Miss
24.2%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.22
Edge
-5.1%
9%
15%
76%
covers Cambuur + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.35
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Marathonbet
3.25
Cambuur or Twente✓ Hit
85.2%
Avg Implied 83.5% · @ 1.13
Edge
+1.7%
9%
15%
76%
covers Cambuur + Twente
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Draw or Twente✓ Hit
90.6%
Avg Implied 87.2% · @ 1.08
Edge
+3.4%
9%
15%
76%
covers Draw + Twente
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cambuur over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.5%
@ 1.52+2.1%
Under
36.5%
@ 2.41-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Unibet
1.56
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Cambuur over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.7%
@ 3.56+0.5%
Under
73.3%
@ 1.26-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.70
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.56
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Cambuur over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
@ 9.36-1.8%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Cambuur over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 22.50-2.4%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Twente over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
94.6%
@ 1.04+4.7%
Under
5.4%
@ 9.33-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.20
Unibet
9.00
Twente over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
79.0%
@ 1.29+6.8%
Under
21.0%
@ 3.34-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.58
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Marathonbet
3.32
1xBet
3.32
Twente over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
56.0%
@ 1.94+7.8%
Under
44.0%
@ 1.80-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Twente over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
33.6%
@ 3.36+6.0%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.28-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.55
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cambuur, so a minus line means Cambuur give that many goals of a start and Twente receive them. At -1, Cambuur must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cambuur win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cambuur)Actual: Twente
Cambuur -2
0.8%
@ 56.67-0.8%
Draw -2
2.4%
@ 21.67-2.0%
Twente +2
96.8%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
91.00
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
38.00
Draw
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Away
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (Cambuur)Actual: Twente
Cambuur -1
3.2%
@ 15.42-2.6%
Draw -1
6.1%
@ 8.29-4.8%
Twente +1
90.6%
@ 1.08+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
Unibet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.06
Handicap +1 (Cambuur)Actual: Twente
Cambuur +1
24.2%
@ 3.27-3.3%
Draw +1
18.9%
@ 3.92-4.0%
Twente -1
56.9%
@ 1.81+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Away
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Handicap +2 (Cambuur)Actual: Twente
Cambuur +2
43.1%
@ 1.85-4.9%
Draw +2
20.3%
@ 4.08-1.5%
Twente -2
36.6%
@ 2.95+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Away
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cambuur
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.47
0.93
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.69
0.79
0.50
0.71
0.87
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.93
0.36
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.46
0.88
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.27
1.00
0.20
0.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.8%
@ 1.20-0.9%
Under 0.5
23.2%
@ 4.18+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.7%
@ 1.98-2.5%
Under 1.5
55.3%
@ 1.77+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
Unibet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
SBO
1.86
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.9%
@ 4.12-7.6%
Under 2.5
85.1%
@ 1.20+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Betano
4.15
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Under
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cambuur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 2.64+1.0%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.44-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.90
Unibet
2.80
10Bet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
Cambuur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 9.40-4.1%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.50
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Superbet
8.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Cambuur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 37.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Twente over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
63.8%
@ 1.39-3.4%
Under
36.2%
@ 2.84+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Superbet
1.36
Under
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.94
Superbet
2.90
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Twente over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
25.1%
@ 2.81-8.1%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.39+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.89
Unibet
2.88
Betano
2.85
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Twente over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 6.66-7.7%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.07+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Superbet
6.30
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cambuur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.77
1.40
0.53
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.17
0.76
1.36
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Twente) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Twente
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.73
1.14
0.36
1.44
1.06
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.54
0.69
1.50
0.38
1.60
1.20
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.73
0.60
0.40
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cambuur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
85.4%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Under 0.5
14.6%
@ 5.92-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
6.10
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
56.4%
@ 1.58-2.4%
Under 1.5
43.6%
@ 2.26+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Under
Betano
2.37
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
28.9%
@ 2.77-4.6%
Under 2.5
71.1%
@ 1.40+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
Unibet
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cambuur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
38.3%
@ 2.13-5.1%
Under
61.7%
@ 1.64+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Cambuur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 6.80-4.5%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.07+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Cambuur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 17.50-3.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Twente over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
78.6%
@ 1.25+4.2%
Under
21.4%
@ 3.63-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Under
Betano
3.70
Superbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Twente over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.3%
@ 2.13+0.9%
Under
55.7%
@ 1.64-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
1xBet
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Betano
2.07
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Twente over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 4.59-6.4%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.16+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.65
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.02
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.9%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
90.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
90.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
10Bet
1.09
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
90.6%
1.08
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.06
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
89.6%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.11
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.2%
1.13
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.1%
1.20
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
79.6%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
79.0%
1.29
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away win
75.8%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.35
Dafabet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Superbet
1.34
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
75.2%
1.37
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
74.5%
1.45
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.42
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
73.3%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Pinnacle
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.1%
1.40
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
70.2%
1.68
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Unibet
1.66
-
-
+15.3%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
70.1%
1.40
Unibet
1.40
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cambuur
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafik El Arguioui50%
Ilyes Hamache25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nicky Souren50%
Lucas Jetten25%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nicolas Binder33%
Nicky Souren25%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Rafik El Arguioui0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Sami Bouhoudane0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafik El Arguioui75%
Sami Bouhoudane25%
Nicky Souren0%
Nicolas Binder0%
Jamal Amofa0%
Thijs Jansen0%
Ilyes Hamache0%
Skye Vink0%
Ismaël Baouf0%
Morgan Costarelli0%
Iwan Henstra0%
Lucas Jetten0%
Fabian Kvam0%
Twente
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marko Pjaca57%
Max Bruns50%
Younes Taha50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Daan Rots33%
Daouda Weidmann33%
Ruud Nijstad20%
Robin Pröpper14%
Ramiz Zerrouki14%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Sondre Ørjasæter0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daan Rots33%
Robin Pröpper29%
Ramiz Zerrouki29%
Younes Taha25%
Wout Weghorst17%
Daouda Weidmann17%
Sondre Ørjasæter17%
Aske Adelgaard17%
Marko Pjaca0%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Max Bruns0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daouda Weidmann50%
Sondre Ørjasæter50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Marko Pjaca14%
Bart van Rooij14%
Ramiz Zerrouki14%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Robin Pröpper0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Daan Rots0%
Max Bruns0%
Younes Taha0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Younes Taha50%
Daouda Weidmann50%
Wout Weghorst33%
Daan Rots33%
Marko Pjaca29%
Max Bruns17%
Thomas Van den Belt0%
Sam Lammers0%
Robin Pröpper0%
Bart van Rooij0%
Lars Unnerstall0%
Ramiz Zerrouki0%
Mathias Kjølø0%
Kristian Hlynsson0%
Sondre Ørjasæter0%
Aske Adelgaard0%
Guilherme Peixoto0%
Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink0%
Ruud Nijstad0%
Filip Thorvaldsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Cambuur's squad is €74m less valuable than Twente's (€12m vs €87m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Cambuur's attack is €31m less valuable than Twente's (€3m vs €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Cambuur's midfield is €12m less valuable than Twente's (€1m vs €13m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Cambuur's defence is €31m less valuable than Twente's (€8m vs €39m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht