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Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town Result & Analysis

Date: 29/10/2022
Time: 13:30
Final 0-3
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Vs
53%
25%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
53.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town win✓ Hit
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-740W15L30W10W07L02L01L21W02L10WA·ABE20/08A·CAE27/08H·PON30/08H·FLI03/09H·THE17/09A·BAL24/09A·HAV27/09H·ABE01/10A·GAP15/10A·NEW22/10
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.641.601.601.001.67
vs Stronger (2)1.503.501.503.50--
vs Similar (9)1.221.221.670.331.001.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %45% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W51W12L31W21W02L13L20W21W03LH·PON20/08H·CAR27/08A·NEW30/08H·AIR02/09H·HAV17/09H·GAP27/09A·PON01/10H·FLI14/10H·ABE21/10A·THE25/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.641.362.290.860.502.25
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (8)1.621.252.200.800.672.00
vs Weaker (2)2.501.002.501.00--
Clean sheet %18% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
8.3%
0-0
6.1%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
5.6%
Cardiff MET goals ↓
Caernarfon Town goals →
01234
06.1%4.7%3.2%1.2%0.3%
18.3%12%6.0%2.3%0.6%
28.7%9.8%5.6%2.1%0.6%
35.4%6.1%3.4%1.3%0.4%
42.5%2.8%1.6%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff MET goals (down), columns = Caernarfon Town goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.59
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Penybont
1.81
Cardiff MET
1.61
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Bala Town
1.33
Newtown AFC
1.32
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Caernarfon Town
1.22
Aberystwyth Town
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Airbus UK
0.06
Cardiff MET is 0.39 points better than Caernarfon Town in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.50
Bala Town
1.61
Penybont
1.59
Caernarfon Town
1.59
Newtown AFC
1.59
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.47
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.41
Flint Town United
1.28
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Aberystwyth Town
1.28
Cardiff MET
1.24
Airbus UK
0.56
Cardiff MET is 0.35 goals worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.59).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.72
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.24
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.62
Flint Town United
1.66
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Newtown AFC
1.74
Aberystwyth Town
2.28
Airbus UK
3.12
Cardiff MET is 0.20 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.69).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W13L10W00D03L00D00D20W01L10WA·ABE20/08A·CAE27/08H·PON30/08H·FLI03/09H·THE17/09A·BAL24/09A·HAV27/09H·ABE01/10A·GAP15/10A·NEW22/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.820.640.800.600.830.67
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.501.50--
vs Similar (9)0.890.441.000.000.830.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D31W02L01L10W00D01L00D10W02LH·PON20/08H·CAR27/08A·NEW30/08H·AIR02/09H·HAV17/09H·GAP27/09A·PON01/10H·FLI14/10H·ABE21/10A·THE25/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.450.640.710.290.001.25
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (8)0.500.500.800.200.001.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.500.50--
Clean sheet %55% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L20W10W04L02L01L01L01L00DA·ABE20/08A·CAE27/08H·PON30/08H·FLI03/09H·THE17/09A·BAL24/09A·HAV27/09H·ABE01/10A·GAP15/10A·NEW22/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.451.000.801.000.171.00
vs Stronger (2)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Similar (9)0.330.780.670.330.171.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %45% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W20W10W30W11D02L12L20W11D01LH·PON20/08H·CAR27/08A·NEW30/08H·AIR02/09H·HAV17/09H·GAP27/09A·PON01/10H·FLI14/10H·ABE21/10A·THE25/10
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.180.731.570.570.501.00
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (8)1.120.751.400.600.671.00
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.000.50--
Clean sheet %45% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
CM wins
0
Draws
1
CT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town · H/A from CM
DateH/AGameScore
27/08/22ACaernarfon Town Vs CM5-1

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/22ANewtown AFC Vs CM0-1
15/10/22AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs CM2-0
01/10/22HCM Vs Aberystwyth Town2-1
27/09/22AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs CM1-0
24/09/22ABala Town Vs CM2-0
17/09/22HCM Vs The New Saints0-7
03/09/22HCM Vs Flint Town United1-0
30/08/22HCM Vs Pontypridd Town3-0
27/08/22ACaernarfon Town Vs CM5-1
20/08/22AAberystwyth Town Vs CM0-4

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/22AThe New Saints Vs CT3-0
21/10/22HCT Vs Aberystwyth Town2-1
14/10/22HCT Vs Flint Town United2-0
01/10/22APontypridd Town Vs CT3-1
27/09/22HCT Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-2
17/09/22HCT Vs Haverfordwest County AFC2-1
02/09/22HCT Vs Airbus UK3-1
30/08/22ANewtown AFC Vs CT2-1
27/08/22HCT Vs Cardiff MET5-1
20/08/22HCT Vs Pontypridd Town2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLW1.64
HomeWWWLW2.40
AwayLLLLW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %55%80%33%
AVG goals2.913.202.67
Over 1.5 %73%80%67%
Over 2.5 %45%60%33%
Over 3.5 %27%20%33%
Scored1.271.601.00
Conceded1.641.601.67
BTTS18%20%17%
Clean Sheet45%60%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWL1.64
HomeWWLWW2.57
AwayLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %55%86%0%
AVG goals3.003.142.75
Over 1.5 %91%100%75%
Over 2.5 %64%57%75%
Over 3.5 %27%29%25%
Scored1.642.290.50
Conceded1.360.862.25
BTTS55%57%50%
Clean Sheet18%29%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3283
81%
2.6
11217+95
4.0
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.50.5
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3261
53%
1.9
4523+22
2.1
69%
34%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.7
-
3PenybontPenybont3258
50%
1.8
5132+19
2.6
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
4Cardiff METCardiff MET3353
48%
1.6
4149-8
2.7
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
5Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
5045+5
2.8
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3445
38%
1.3
5459-5
3.3
82%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
7Bala TownBala Town3344
36%
1.3
5341+12
2.8
82%
58%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.2
-
8Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3241
38%
1.3
4152-11
2.9
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3239
38%
1.2
5154-3
3.3
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.7
-
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3238
34%
1.2
4173-32
3.6
91%
75%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
11Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
28%
1.1
4153-12
2.9
75%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.7
-
12Airbus UKAirbus UK322
0%
0.1
18100-82
3.7
91%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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