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Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town Result & Analysis

Date: 13/12/2025
Time: 17:25
Final 2-4
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Vs
34%
23%
43%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Welsh Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Squad value14 Games History15 Overall Statistics16 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Cardiff MET a 34% win probability against Caernarfon Town in the Wales: Welsh Cup on 2025-12-13, with 23% for the draw and 43% for Caernarfon Town. The model estimates around 3.7 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (21%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (9.1%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 7.5 (96%), Under 6.5 (92%), Home under 3.5 goals (90%), Over 1.5 (90%).

Results analysis

Cardiff MET finished 2-4 against Caernarfon Town (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 34% home win, 23% draw and 43% away win. Picks that landed: Under 7.5 (96%), Under 6.5 (92%), Home under 3.5 goals (90%), Over 1.5 (90%), Away over 0.5 goals (86%), Home over 0.5 goals (83%). Missed: Away under 3.5 goals (86%), Under 5.5 (82%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town win✓ Hit
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W31W00D51W41W03L32W21W22D21WH·BAL04/10A·LLA07/10A·COL11/10H·TAF18/10H·FLI25/10H·GAP01/11A·THE07/11H·THE21/11A·BAL29/11H·LLA05/12
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.571.751.941.291.14
vs Stronger (6)1.172.671.003.501.501.00
vs Similar (24)1.621.292.001.421.251.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L22D30W20W41W22D11D40W02L11DH·THE07/10A·BAR11/10A·NEW18/10A·PEN25/10H·BRI01/11H·HAV08/11A·LLA15/11H·PEN22/11A·THE28/11H·FLI05/12
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.472.571.211.751.69
vs Stronger (3)0.332.331.003.000.002.00
vs Similar (27)2.331.372.691.082.001.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%07%118%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.5%
Under 1.5
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.0%
Under 2.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.3%
Under 3.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.1%
No
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.1%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
7.2%
1-3
5.4%
2-3
4.7%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.3%
Cardiff MET goals ↓
Caernarfon Town goals →
01234
03.2%3.9%4.7%3.1%1.5%
13.4%9.1%8.2%5.4%2.7%
23.7%7.3%7.2%4.7%2.3%
32.2%4.3%4.2%2.8%1.4%
41.0%1.9%1.9%1.2%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff MET goals (down), columns = Caernarfon Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
3.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
llanelli AFC
2.40
Trearddur Bay
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.25
Airbus UK
2.25
Caersws
2.25
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Trefelin
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Llantwit Major
2.00
Flint Town United
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Swansea University
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.75
Morriston Town
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Cardiff MET
1.50
Briton Ferry
1.50
Holyhead Hotspur
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Kinmel Bay
1.50
Llanefydd
1.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
1.50
Gresford Athletic
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Carmarthen Town
1.25
Ynyshir Albions
1.00
Caerphilly Athletic
1.00
Barry Town
1.00
Caernarfon Town
1.00
Treowen Stars
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Newtown AFC
1.00
Afan Lido
1.00
Evans & Williams
1.00
Cefn Cribwr
1.00
Saltney Town
1.00
Goytre United
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
CPD Sychdyn United
1.00
Berriew
1.00
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.00
Llanfair United
1.00
Glynneath Town
1.00
Dinas Powys
1.00
Llanrug United
1.00
Blaenavon Blues
1.00
Port Talbot Town
1.00
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.00
Pwllheli
1.00
Abercarn United
1.00
Rhostyllen
1.00
Forden United
1.00
Broughton United FC
1.00
Dolgellau Athletic
1.00
Hawarden Rangers
1.00
Penygraig United FC
1.00
Bow Street
1.00
Welshpool Town
1.00
Pontyclun
1.00
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.00
Garden Village
1.00
Canton Liberal
1.00
Rhayader Town
1.00
Nefyn United
1.00
Tredegar Town
1.00
Lliswerry
1.00
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.00
Afan United
1.00
Tata Steel
1.00
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.67
Rhyl
0.50
Ruthin Town
0.50
Guilsfield
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Brickfield Rangers
0.00
Baglan Dragons
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Queens Park
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Cwmbran Town
0.00
NFA
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Caldicot Town
0.00
Cwmbran Celtic
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Cardiff MET is 0.50 points better than Caernarfon Town in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
5.83
Gresford Athletic
5.00
Buckley Town
4.50
Flint Town United
3.50
Denbigh Town
3.50
Caersws
3.50
Trefelin
3.33
Llandudno
3.33
Caerau (Ely)
3.00
Barry Town
3.00
Porthmadog
3.00
Kinmel Bay
3.00
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
3.00
Cwmbran Celtic
3.00
Airbus UK
2.75
Rhyl
2.50
Swansea University
2.33
Penydarren BGC
2.33
llanelli AFC
2.20
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.17
Briton Ferry
2.00
Carmarthen Town
1.75
Mold Alexandra
1.67
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Bala Town
1.67
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Ynyshir Albions
1.46
Caerphilly Athletic
1.46
Treowen Stars
1.46
Evans & Williams
1.46
Cefn Cribwr
1.46
Saltney Town
1.46
CPD Sychdyn United
1.46
Berriew
1.46
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.46
Llanfair United
1.46
Glynneath Town
1.46
Dinas Powys
1.46
Llanrug United
1.46
Blaenavon Blues
1.46
Port Talbot Town
1.46
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.46
Pwllheli
1.46
Abercarn United
1.46
Rhostyllen
1.46
Forden United
1.46
Broughton United FC
1.46
Dolgellau Athletic
1.46
Hawarden Rangers
1.46
Penygraig United FC
1.46
Bow Street
1.46
Welshpool Town
1.46
Pontyclun
1.46
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.46
Garden Village
1.46
Canton Liberal
1.46
Rhayader Town
1.46
Nefyn United
1.46
Tredegar Town
1.46
Lliswerry
1.46
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.46
Afan United
1.46
Tata Steel
1.46
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.46
Afan Lido
1.33
Pill AFC
1.33
Trearddur Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.20
Cardiff MET
1.00
Ammanford AFC
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
1.00
Brickfield Rangers
1.00
Baglan Dragons
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Queens Park
1.00
Morriston Town
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Cwmbran Town
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
NFA
1.00
Caldicot Town
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Guilsfield
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Caernarfon Town
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Cardiff MET is 1.00 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 0.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.00
Caernarfon Town
0.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
llanelli AFC
0.40
Ammanford AFC
0.50
The New Saints
0.50
Cardiff Draconians
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Morriston Town
0.67
Trearddur Bay
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.00
Briton Ferry
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Llantwit Major
1.00
Denbigh Town
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Taffs Well
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
Llwydcoed
1.00
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Swansea University
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.50
Caerau (Ely)
1.50
Flint Town United
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Airbus UK
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Ruthin Town
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Trefelin
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Caersws
1.75
Newport City
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Carmarthen Town
2.00
Penrhyncoch
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Pontypridd Town
2.00
St Asaph City
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
NFA
2.00
Caldicot Town
2.00
Ynyshir Albions
2.17
Caerphilly Athletic
2.17
Treowen Stars
2.17
Evans & Williams
2.17
Cefn Cribwr
2.17
Saltney Town
2.17
CPD Sychdyn United
2.17
Berriew
2.17
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
2.17
Llanfair United
2.17
Glynneath Town
2.17
Dinas Powys
2.17
Llanrug United
2.17
Blaenavon Blues
2.17
Port Talbot Town
2.17
Pentwynmawr Athletic
2.17
Pwllheli
2.17
Abercarn United
2.17
Rhostyllen
2.17
Forden United
2.17
Broughton United FC
2.17
Dolgellau Athletic
2.17
Hawarden Rangers
2.17
Penygraig United FC
2.17
Bow Street
2.17
Welshpool Town
2.17
Pontyclun
2.17
Cwm Welfare AFC
2.17
Garden Village
2.17
Canton Liberal
2.17
Rhayader Town
2.17
Nefyn United
2.17
Tredegar Town
2.17
Lliswerry
2.17
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
2.17
Afan United
2.17
Tata Steel
2.17
Cwmbach Royal Stars
2.17
Colwyn Bay
2.33
Kinmel Bay
2.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
2.50
Gresford Athletic
2.50
Barry Town
3.00
Brickfield Rangers
3.00
Cwmbran Town
3.00
Rhyl
4.00
Llanberis
4.00
Cwmbran Celtic
4.00
Guilsfield
5.00
Baglan Dragons
5.00
Cefn Albion
5.00
Queens Park
6.00
Cardiff MET is 1.50 goals worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cardiff MET or Draw✗ Miss
57.3%
Avg Implied -
34%
23%
43%
covers Cardiff MET + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET or Caernarfon Town✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied -
34%
23%
43%
covers Cardiff MET + Caernarfon Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Caernarfon Town✓ Hit
65.7%
Avg Implied -
34%
23%
43%
covers Draw + Caernarfon Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.1%
Under
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
58.7%
Under
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Cardiff MET, so a minus line means Cardiff MET give that many goals of a start and Caernarfon Town receive them. At -1, Cardiff MET must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cardiff MET win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cardiff MET)Actual: Caernarfon Town
Cardiff MET -2
7.5%
Draw -2
10.4%
Caernarfon Town +2
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cardiff MET)Actual: Caernarfon Town
Cardiff MET -1
17.9%
Draw -1
16.4%
Caernarfon Town +1
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cardiff MET)Actual: Caernarfon Town
Cardiff MET +1
57.3%
Draw +1
18.5%
Caernarfon Town -1
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cardiff MET)Actual: Draw
Cardiff MET +2
75.8%
Draw +2
13.0%
Caernarfon Town -2
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D20W11D02L20W01L21W01LH·BAL04/10A·LLA07/10A·COL11/10H·TAF18/10H·FLI25/10H·GAP01/11A·THE07/11H·THE21/11A·BAL29/11H·LLA05/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.690.880.500.57
vs Stronger (6)0.501.170.251.751.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.620.620.830.580.420.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D20W00D21W00D01L20W00D10WH·THE07/10A·BAR11/10A·NEW18/10A·PEN25/10H·BRI01/11H·HAV08/11A·LLA15/11H·PEN22/11A·THE28/11H·FLI05/12
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.860.500.560.94
vs Stronger (3)0.001.000.002.000.000.50
vs Similar (27)0.780.700.920.380.641.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D30W00D31W30W01L12L20W01L20WH·BAL04/10A·LLA07/10A·COL11/10H·TAF18/10H·FLI25/10H·GAP01/11A·THE07/11H·THE21/11A·BAL29/11H·LLA05/12
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.831.061.060.790.57
vs Stronger (6)0.671.500.751.750.501.00
vs Similar (24)1.000.671.170.830.830.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D10W20W20W22D10W20W02L01LH·THE07/10A·BAR11/10A·NEW18/10A·PEN25/10H·BRI01/11H·HAV08/11A·LLA15/11H·PEN22/11A·THE28/11H·FLI05/12
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.731.710.711.190.75
vs Stronger (3)0.331.331.001.000.001.50
vs Similar (27)1.560.671.770.691.360.64
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.596.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.591.5%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals89.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.589.5%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals86.2%-------✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals86.1%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals82.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.582.5%-------✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap82.1%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away77.0%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap75.8%-------✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals74.1%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes72.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.572.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
QP (28)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QP (14)
€2m
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
QP (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QP (12)
€1m
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
CM wins
2
Draws
3
CT wins

Head-to-head

Cardiff MET vs Caernarfon Town · H/A from CM
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25ACaernarfon Town Vs CM0-3
09/08/25HCM Vs Caernarfon Town2-2
11/05/25ACaernarfon Town Vs CM0-0
19/04/25ACaernarfon Town Vs CM2-1
08/03/25HCM Vs Caernarfon Town4-2
05/10/24HCM Vs Caernarfon Town1-2
31/08/24ACaernarfon Town Vs CM1-2
10/05/24ACaernarfon Town Vs CM2-0

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/12/25HCM Vs llanelli AFC2-1
29/11/25ABala Town Vs CM2-2
21/11/25HCM Vs The New Saints2-1
07/11/25AThe New Saints Vs CM2-3
01/11/25HCM Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-3
25/10/25HCM Vs Flint Town United4-1
18/10/25HCM Vs Taffs Well5-1
11/10/25AColwyn Bay Vs CM0-0
07/10/25Allanelli AFC Vs CM1-3
04/10/25HCM Vs Bala Town2-0

Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/12/25HCT Vs Flint Town United1-1
28/11/25AThe New Saints Vs CT2-0
22/11/25HCT Vs Penrhyncoch4-0
15/11/25Allanelli AFC Vs CT1-1
08/11/25HCT Vs Haverfordwest County AFC2-2
01/11/25HCT Vs Briton Ferry4-1
25/10/25APenybont Vs CT0-2
18/10/25ANewtown AFC Vs CT0-3
11/10/25ABarry Town Vs CT2-2
07/10/25HCT Vs The New Saints1-3

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.36
HomeWWLWW1.63
AwayWWDWD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%22%
AVG goals3.023.482.48
Over 1.5 %82%96%65%
Over 2.5 %66%74%57%
Over 3.5 %36%41%30%
Scored1.441.701.13
Conceded1.581.781.35
BTTS64%70%57%
Clean Sheet20%15%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWLD1.62
HomeLWDWD1.67
AwayDWWDL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals3.423.922.96
Over 1.5 %88%92%85%
Over 2.5 %66%79%54%
Over 3.5 %46%58%35%
Scored1.922.251.62
Conceded1.501.671.35
BTTS68%71%65%
Clean Sheet22%21%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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