Cardiff MET’s recent form shows a fragile defense after a 0-5 loss to The New Saints, while Caernarfon Town have been on a two-game winning streak, scoring twice in their last outing. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and the most likely total of three, a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.1% probability. The favoured outcome is an away win, with Caernarfon Town’s 1.73 average goals scored and only 0.82 conceded at home, versus Cardiff MET’s 2.0 goals for and 1.5 against. Home win probability sits at 25%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 51%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 6.5 (95.6%), Under 5.5 (89.5%), Away +2 handicap (89.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (86.1%) and Away over 0.5 goals (85.2%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cardiff MET win
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town win
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.40
1.94
1.69
1.50
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.67
1.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.36
2.07
1.50
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
-
-
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.30
2.12
1.50
1.71
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.75
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.12
1.12
2.29
1.21
1.90
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
66.9%
No
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
0-1
5.5%
0-3
4.7%
Cardiff MET goals ↓
Caernarfon Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.9%
5.5%
6.7%
4.7%
2.4%
1
3.4%
9.8%
9.3%
6.5%
3.4%
2
3.0%
6.2%
6.5%
4.5%
2.4%
3
1.4%
2.9%
3.0%
2.1%
1.1%
4
0.5%
1.0%
1.1%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff MET goals (down), columns = Caernarfon Town goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town are level in average points per game (both 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Cardiff MET is 0.17 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Cardiff MET is 0.33 goals better than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cardiff MET or Draw
47.3%
Avg Implied -
25%
23%
53%
covers Cardiff MET + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET or Caernarfon Town
77.2%
Avg Implied -
25%
23%
53%
covers Cardiff MET + Caernarfon Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Caernarfon Town
75.5%
Avg Implied -
25%
23%
53%
covers Draw + Caernarfon Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5
Over
87.7%
Under
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5
Over
61.9%
Under
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 3.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cardiff MET, so a minus line means Cardiff MET give that many goals of a start and Caernarfon Town receive them. At -1, Cardiff MET must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cardiff MET win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cardiff MET)
Cardiff MET -2
3.9%
Draw -2
7.2%
Caernarfon Town +2
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cardiff MET)
Cardiff MET -1
11.0%
Draw -1
13.5%
Caernarfon Town +1
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cardiff MET)
Cardiff MET +1
47.3%
Draw +1
20.7%
Caernarfon Town -1
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cardiff MET)
Cardiff MET +2
68.0%
Draw +2
16.1%
Caernarfon Town -2
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.56
0.62
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.60
0.64
0.57
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.06
0.75
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.54
1.14
0.57
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.38
1.06
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.76
1.43
0.93
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.06
0.75
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.58
1.14
0.64
1.40
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Caernarfon Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →