Cardiff MET face a convincing away challenge from GAP Connah S Quay FC, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.6% chance. Cardiff’s home form shows 1.42 goals scored and 1.67 conceded against similar opposition, while GAP Connah S Quay FC’s away record boasts 1.9 scored and only 0.9 conceded. The probability of a home win sits at 20%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 56%. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.1% probability and a hit result. Despite the prediction, the match finished 2-1 in favour of Cardiff MET, ending a 2-game winning run after a 5-0 victory over Ammanford AFC, while GAP Connah S Quay FC had been on a 5-game winning streak, having beaten Flint Town United 2-1.
Results analysis
Cardiff MET extended a two-game winning streak to lift the match 2-1, turning the pre-match favourite - GAP Connah S Quay FC, tipped to win with a 56% chance - into a surprise loser. The model’s pick of an away win was therefore wrong. The final score of 2-1 gave Cardiff the home victory, while the model had predicted a 2-goal total, a figure that came close to the most likely 2-goal outcome. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals with an 80.1% probability, hit as the match produced three goals. The result shows the model’s prediction was largely off, yet its over-goals call proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cardiff MET win✓ Hit
19.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.90
1.31
1.92
1.24
1.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
4.50
0.00
5.00
1.00
4.33
vs Similar (26)
1.35
1.50
1.42
1.67
1.29
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
1.53
1.40
1.73
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.67
0.50
4.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.86
0.95
1.83
1.00
1.90
0.90
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
Under 1.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.1%
Under 2.5
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.7%
Under 3.5
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.5%
0-1
9.0%
0-0
6.4%
1-3
6.2%
0-3
6.0%
2-1 ✓
5.5%
Cardiff MET goals ↓
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
9.0%
9.5%
6.0%
2.8%
1
4.5%
12%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
2.9%
5.5%
5.2%
3.3%
1.5%
3
1.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff MET goals (down), columns = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
The New Saints
2.44
Penybont
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.64
Barry Town
1.58
Caernarfon Town
1.49
Cardiff MET
1.41
Flint Town United
1.31
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.31
Bala Town
1.12
Briton Ferry
1.00
Newtown AFC
0.81
Aberystwyth Town
0.66
Cardiff MET is 0.10 points better than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of average points per game (1.41 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.78
Penybont
1.75
Barry Town
1.73
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Flint Town United
1.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.47
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.29
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.27
Bala Town
1.15
Newtown AFC
1.12
Aberystwyth Town
0.88
Cardiff MET is 0.17 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.82
The New Saints
0.97
Penybont
1.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.09
Bala Town
1.33
Cardiff MET
1.35
Caernarfon Town
1.60
Barry Town
1.70
Flint Town United
1.94
Briton Ferry
2.03
Newtown AFC
2.03
Aberystwyth Town
2.22
Cardiff MET is 0.26 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.38
0.69
0.71
0.88
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.25
0.00
1.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.58
0.42
0.67
0.79
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.87
0.73
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
3.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.91
0.36
1.08
0.33
0.70
0.40
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.00
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.10
0.92
1.23
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.25
0.00
4.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.07
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.59
0.75
0.67
1.20
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
Cardiff MET and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Cardiff MET and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
Cardiff MET and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
The New Saints
Penybont
Haverfordwest County AFC
Caernarfon Town
Barry Town
Flint Town United
Bala Town
Briton Ferry
Newtown AFC
Aberystwyth Town