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Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 06/05/2023
Time: 16:15
Final 0-0
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Vs
39%
28%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Cardiff MET and Haverfordwest County AFC face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win at 39%. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly active game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.4% chance. Cardiff’s home form shows an average of 1.09 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly matched opponents, while Haverfordwest’s away record yields 0.92 scored and 1.58 conceded. The probabilities for each result are 39% for a Cardiff win, 28% for a draw, and 33% for a Haverfordwest victory. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 with a 76.4% chance and Under 3.5 at 71.4%. The model’s selection of a home win remains the single most likely outcome, while the 1-1 scoreline stands out as the most probable final tally.

Results analysis

The pre-match favourite, Cardiff MET, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that extended their two-game winning run. The model had picked a home win with a 39% probability, but this call proved wrong. The expected total of 2.7 goals was not reached, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 (26%) also missed the mark. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, at 76.4%, was a miss, while its Under 3.5 choice, at 71.4%, hit the target. Haverfordwest County AFC, coming off a win, could not break the stalemate, leaving the prediction model’s favourite disappointed.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cardiff MET win✗ Miss
38.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC win✗ Miss
33.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-732W12L12L00D00D17L23L02L21W21WH·THE11/02A·PEN17/02A·GAP25/02H·NEW10/03A·BAL18/03A·THE25/03H·PEN31/03H·GAP08/04A·NEW15/04H·BAL22/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.631.401.400.931.87
vs Stronger (6)1.333.332.003.000.673.67
vs Similar (22)1.001.271.091.000.911.55
vs Weaker (2)2.500.503.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L31W12L10W40W22D20W20W11D41WA·CAE11/02H·FLI18/02A·PON25/02A·ABE11/03H·AIR18/03H·CAE25/03A·FLI01/04H·PON07/04H·ABE15/04A·AIR22/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.431.931.271.201.60
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (24)1.331.461.751.330.921.58
vs Weaker (4)3.250.503.500.003.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.7%
Under 2.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-0
8.3%
0-0 ✓
7.9%
1-2
7.9%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
5.6%
Cardiff MET goals ↓
Haverfordwest County AFC goals →
01234
07.9%7.4%5.6%2.4%0.8%
18.3%13%7.9%3.4%1.1%
26.7%8.6%5.6%2.4%0.8%
33.1%4.1%2.6%1.1%0.4%
41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff MET goals (down), columns = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.59
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Penybont
1.81
Cardiff MET
1.61
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Bala Town
1.33
Newtown AFC
1.32
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Caernarfon Town
1.22
Aberystwyth Town
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Airbus UK
0.06
Cardiff MET is 0.16 points better than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.50
Bala Town
1.61
Penybont
1.59
Caernarfon Town
1.59
Newtown AFC
1.59
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.47
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.41
Flint Town United
1.28
Aberystwyth Town
1.28
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Cardiff MET
1.24
Airbus UK
0.56
Cardiff MET is 0.23 goals worse than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.72
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.24
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.62
Flint Town United
1.66
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Newtown AFC
1.74
Aberystwyth Town
2.28
Airbus UK
3.12
Cardiff MET is 0.16 goals worse than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.32).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L01L00D00D14L10W02L00D20WH·THE11/02A·PEN17/02A·GAP25/02H·NEW10/03A·BAL18/03A·THE25/03H·PEN31/03H·GAP08/04A·NEW15/04H·BAL22/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.670.530.330.80
vs Stronger (6)0.501.830.671.670.332.00
vs Similar (22)0.500.410.640.270.360.55
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D21W11D00D10W11D20W10W01L11DA·CAE11/02H·FLI18/02A·PON25/02A·ABE11/03H·AIR18/03H·CAE25/03A·FLI01/04H·PON07/04H·ABE15/04A·AIR22/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.701.070.600.400.80
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.002.000.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.790.621.170.580.420.67
vs Weaker (4)0.750.501.000.000.501.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W11D11D00D00D03L13L00D21W01LH·THE11/02A·PEN17/02A·GAP25/02H·NEW10/03A·BAL18/03A·THE25/03H·PEN31/03H·GAP08/04A·NEW15/04H·BAL22/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.970.730.870.601.07
vs Stronger (6)0.831.501.331.330.331.67
vs Similar (22)0.500.860.450.730.551.00
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.001.002.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W01L10W30W11D00D10W10W30WA·CAE11/02H·FLI18/02A·PON25/02A·ABE11/03H·AIR18/03H·CAE25/03A·FLI01/04H·PON07/04H·ABE15/04A·AIR22/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.730.870.670.800.80
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.540.830.580.750.500.92
vs Weaker (4)2.500.002.500.002.500.00
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.571.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Cardiff MET and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
CM wins
0
Draws
1
HCA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC · H/A from CM
DateH/AGameScore
16/12/22HCM Vs Haverfordwest County AFC2-0
27/09/22AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs CM1-0

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/23HCM Vs Bala Town2-1
15/04/23ANewtown AFC Vs CM1-2
08/04/23HCM Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-2
31/03/23HCM Vs Penybont2-3
25/03/23AThe New Saints Vs CM7-1
18/03/23ABala Town Vs CM0-0
10/03/23HCM Vs Newtown AFC0-0
25/02/23AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs CM2-1
17/02/23APenybont Vs CM2-1
11/02/23HCM Vs The New Saints3-2

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/04/23AAirbus UK Vs HCA1-4
15/04/23HHCA Vs Aberystwyth Town1-1
07/04/23HHCA Vs Pontypridd Town2-0
01/04/23AFlint Town United Vs HCA0-2
25/03/23HHCA Vs Caernarfon Town2-2
18/03/23HHCA Vs Airbus UK4-0
11/03/23AAberystwyth Town Vs HCA0-1
25/02/23APontypridd Town Vs HCA2-1
18/02/23HHCA Vs Flint Town United3-1
11/02/23ACaernarfon Town Vs HCA2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.62
HomeWDLLW2.00
AwayLLDLW1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%62%38%
AVG goals2.812.752.88
Over 1.5 %75%75%75%
Over 2.5 %53%56%50%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.281.441.12
Conceded1.531.311.75
BTTS41%38%44%
Clean Sheet38%44%31%
Corners---
Cards---
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.47
HomeWWDWD1.94
AwayLLWWW1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%56%31%
AVG goals2.913.062.75
Over 1.5 %84%88%81%
Over 2.5 %56%62%50%
Over 3.5 %34%44%25%
Scored1.531.881.19
Conceded1.381.191.56
BTTS62%69%56%
Clean Sheet25%31%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3283
81%
2.6
11217+95
4.0
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.50.5
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3261
53%
1.9
4523+22
2.1
69%
34%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.7
-
3PenybontPenybont3258
50%
1.8
5132+19
2.6
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
4Cardiff METCardiff MET3353
48%
1.6
4149-8
2.7
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
5Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
5045+5
2.8
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3445
38%
1.3
5459-5
3.3
82%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
7Bala TownBala Town3344
36%
1.3
5341+12
2.8
82%
58%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.2
-
8Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3241
38%
1.3
4152-11
2.9
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3239
38%
1.2
5154-3
3.3
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.7
-
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3238
34%
1.2
4173-32
3.6
91%
75%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
11Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
28%
1.1
4153-12
2.9
75%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.7
-
12Airbus UKAirbus UK322
0%
0.1
18100-82
3.7
91%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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