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Cardiff MET vs The New Saints Result & Analysis

Date: 21/11/2025
Time: 19:45
Final 2-1
Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Vs
27%
21%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Welsh Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Cardiff MET win✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
The New Saints win✗ Miss
52.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-513L04L30W20W31W00D51W41W03L32WH·THE19/09H·PEN23/09A·CAE28/09H·BAL04/10A·LLA07/10A·COL11/10H·TAF18/10H·FLI25/10H·GAP01/11A·THE07/11← Premier LeagueWelsh Cup →
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.631.622.001.211.21
vs Stronger (5)1.003.200.333.672.002.50
vs Similar (25)1.521.321.921.621.081.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-642W20W40W31W62W21W40W32W23L30WH·FLI23/09A·BAL26/09H·BAR04/10A·CAE07/10H·PEN11/10A·MOL18/10A·LLA24/10A·HAV01/11H·CAR07/11A·FLI14/11← Premier LeagueWelsh Cup →
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.630.802.931.002.380.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.671.000.001.001.001.00
vs Weaker (27)2.850.783.151.002.570.57
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%2%06%115%219%320%416%523%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.0%
Under 1.5
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.2%
Under 2.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.0%
Under 3.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.8%
No
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.2%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
6.9%
1-3
6.4%
2-1 ✓
5.9%
2-3
5.5%
0-2
4.8%
3-2
3.9%
Cardiff MET goals ↓
The New Saints goals →
01234
02.4%3.4%4.8%3.8%2.2%
12.2%7.6%8.2%6.4%3.8%
22.5%5.9%6.9%5.5%3.2%
31.4%3.3%3.9%3.1%1.8%
40.6%1.4%1.7%1.3%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cardiff MET goals (down), columns = The New Saints goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
3.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
llanelli AFC
2.40
Trearddur Bay
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.25
Caersws
2.25
Airbus UK
2.25
Llandudno
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Trefelin
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Flint Town United
2.00
Llantwit Major
2.00
Swansea University
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.75
Morriston Town
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Kinmel Bay
1.50
Llanefydd
1.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Briton Ferry
1.50
Cardiff MET
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Holyhead Hotspur
1.50
Gresford Athletic
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Carmarthen Town
1.25
Barry Town
1.00
Caernarfon Town
1.00
Evans & Williams
1.00
Cefn Cribwr
1.00
Saltney Town
1.00
Afan United
1.00
Nefyn United
1.00
Tredegar Town
1.00
Lliswerry
1.00
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.00
Goytre United
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
CPD Sychdyn United
1.00
Berriew
1.00
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.00
Llanfair United
1.00
Glynneath Town
1.00
Dinas Powys
1.00
Llanrug United
1.00
Blaenavon Blues
1.00
Port Talbot Town
1.00
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.00
Pwllheli
1.00
Abercarn United
1.00
Rhostyllen
1.00
Forden United
1.00
Broughton United FC
1.00
Dolgellau Athletic
1.00
Hawarden Rangers
1.00
Penygraig United FC
1.00
Bow Street
1.00
Welshpool Town
1.00
Tata Steel
1.00
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.00
Ynyshir Albions
1.00
Treowen Stars
1.00
Caerphilly Athletic
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Newtown AFC
1.00
Afan Lido
1.00
Pontyclun
1.00
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.00
Garden Village
1.00
Canton Liberal
1.00
Rhayader Town
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.67
Ruthin Town
0.50
Rhyl
0.50
Baglan Dragons
0.00
Queens Park
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Cwmbran Town
0.00
NFA
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Caldicot Town
0.00
Cwmbran Celtic
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Brickfield Rangers
0.00
Guilsfield
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Cardiff MET is 1.50 points worse than The New Saints in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 3.00).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
5.83
Gresford Athletic
5.00
Buckley Town
4.50
Denbigh Town
3.50
Caersws
3.50
Flint Town United
3.50
Llandudno
3.33
Trefelin
3.33
Barry Town
3.00
Kinmel Bay
3.00
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
3.00
Cwmbran Celtic
3.00
Caerau (Ely)
3.00
Porthmadog
3.00
Airbus UK
2.75
Rhyl
2.50
Penydarren BGC
2.33
Swansea University
2.33
llanelli AFC
2.20
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.17
Briton Ferry
2.00
Carmarthen Town
1.75
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Bala Town
1.67
Mold Alexandra
1.67
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Evans & Williams
1.46
Cefn Cribwr
1.46
Saltney Town
1.46
Afan United
1.46
Nefyn United
1.46
Tredegar Town
1.46
Lliswerry
1.46
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.46
CPD Sychdyn United
1.46
Berriew
1.46
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.46
Llanfair United
1.46
Glynneath Town
1.46
Dinas Powys
1.46
Llanrug United
1.46
Blaenavon Blues
1.46
Port Talbot Town
1.46
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.46
Pwllheli
1.46
Abercarn United
1.46
Rhostyllen
1.46
Forden United
1.46
Broughton United FC
1.46
Dolgellau Athletic
1.46
Hawarden Rangers
1.46
Penygraig United FC
1.46
Bow Street
1.46
Welshpool Town
1.46
Tata Steel
1.46
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.46
Ynyshir Albions
1.46
Treowen Stars
1.46
Caerphilly Athletic
1.46
Pontyclun
1.46
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.46
Garden Village
1.46
Canton Liberal
1.46
Rhayader Town
1.46
Pill AFC
1.33
Trearddur Bay
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.20
Ammanford AFC
1.00
Baglan Dragons
1.00
Queens Park
1.00
Morriston Town
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Cwmbran Town
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
NFA
1.00
Caldicot Town
1.00
Brickfield Rangers
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Cardiff MET
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Caernarfon Town
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Guilsfield
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Cardiff MET is 4.83 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 5.83).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Caernarfon Town
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.00
llanelli AFC
0.40
Ammanford AFC
0.50
Cardiff Draconians
0.50
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Morriston Town
0.67
Trearddur Bay
0.67
Taffs Well
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
Llwydcoed
1.00
Penybont
1.00
Denbigh Town
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.00
Briton Ferry
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Llantwit Major
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Swansea University
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Caerau (Ely)
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Ruthin Town
1.50
Flint Town United
1.50
Airbus UK
1.50
Cardiff MET
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Trefelin
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Caersws
1.75
Llandudno
2.00
St Asaph City
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
NFA
2.00
Caldicot Town
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Newport City
2.00
Penrhyncoch
2.00
Carmarthen Town
2.00
Evans & Williams
2.17
Cefn Cribwr
2.17
Saltney Town
2.17
Afan United
2.17
Nefyn United
2.17
Tredegar Town
2.17
Lliswerry
2.17
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
2.17
CPD Sychdyn United
2.17
Berriew
2.17
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
2.17
Llanfair United
2.17
Glynneath Town
2.17
Dinas Powys
2.17
Llanrug United
2.17
Blaenavon Blues
2.17
Port Talbot Town
2.17
Pentwynmawr Athletic
2.17
Pwllheli
2.17
Abercarn United
2.17
Rhostyllen
2.17
Forden United
2.17
Broughton United FC
2.17
Dolgellau Athletic
2.17
Hawarden Rangers
2.17
Penygraig United FC
2.17
Bow Street
2.17
Welshpool Town
2.17
Tata Steel
2.17
Cwmbach Royal Stars
2.17
Ynyshir Albions
2.17
Treowen Stars
2.17
Caerphilly Athletic
2.17
Pontyclun
2.17
Cwm Welfare AFC
2.17
Garden Village
2.17
Canton Liberal
2.17
Rhayader Town
2.17
Colwyn Bay
2.33
Kinmel Bay
2.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
2.50
Gresford Athletic
2.50
Barry Town
3.00
Cwmbran Town
3.00
Brickfield Rangers
3.00
Llanberis
4.00
Cwmbran Celtic
4.00
Rhyl
4.00
Baglan Dragons
5.00
Cefn Albion
5.00
Guilsfield
5.00
Queens Park
6.00
Cardiff MET is 1.00 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.50).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cardiff MET or Draw✓ Hit
47.9%
Avg Implied -
27%
21%
52%
covers Cardiff MET + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET or The New Saints✓ Hit
79.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
21%
52%
covers Cardiff MET + The New Saints
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or The New Saints✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
21%
52%
covers Draw + The New Saints
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.8%
Under
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.4%
Under
90.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.6%
Under
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Cardiff MET, so a minus line means Cardiff MET give that many goals of a start and The New Saints receive them. At -1, Cardiff MET must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cardiff MET win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cardiff MET)Actual: The New Saints
Cardiff MET -2
5.3%
Draw -2
8.0%
The New Saints +2
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cardiff MET)Actual: Draw
Cardiff MET -1
13.3%
Draw -1
13.6%
The New Saints +1
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cardiff MET)Actual: Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET +1
47.9%
Draw +1
19.2%
The New Saints -1
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cardiff MET)Actual: Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET +2
67.1%
Draw +2
15.5%
The New Saints -2
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-313L02L10W20W01L00D20W11D02L20WH·THE19/09H·PEN23/09A·CAE28/09H·BAL04/10A·LLA07/10A·COL11/10H·TAF18/10H·FLI25/10H·GAP01/11A·THE07/11← Premier LeagueWelsh Cup →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.690.810.430.57
vs Stronger (5)0.801.400.332.001.500.50
vs Similar (25)0.520.560.770.540.250.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W10W20W30W00D10W20W02L20WH·FLI23/09A·BAL26/09H·BAR04/10A·CAE07/10H·PEN11/10A·MOL18/10A·LLA24/10A·HAV01/11H·CAR07/11A·FLI14/11← Premier LeagueWelsh Cup →
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.301.210.501.250.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.000.330.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (27)1.370.301.310.461.430.14
Clean sheet %73% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L20W00D30W00D31W30W01L12LH·THE19/09H·PEN23/09A·CAE28/09H·BAL04/10A·LLA07/10A·COL11/10H·TAF18/10H·FLI25/10H·GAP01/11A·THE07/11← Premier LeagueWelsh Cup →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.930.941.190.790.64
vs Stronger (5)0.201.800.001.670.502.00
vs Similar (25)1.000.761.151.080.830.42
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W30W11D32W21W30W12L21W10WH·FLI23/09A·BAL26/09H·BAR04/10A·CAE07/10H·PEN11/10A·MOL18/10A·LLA24/10A·HAV01/11H·CAR07/11A·FLI14/11← Premier LeagueWelsh Cup →
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.501.710.501.120.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (3)0.670.670.000.001.001.00
vs Weaker (27)1.480.481.850.541.140.43
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.594.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.592.0%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals90.6%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals90.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.588.2%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap86.7%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals81.8%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away79.1%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals78.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.577.2%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals75.6%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes74.8%-------✓ Hit
Draw or Away73.0%-------✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap73.0%-------✗ Miss

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
NC (4)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Cardiff MET's squad is €2m less valuable than The New Saints's (€1m vs €3m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and The New Saints have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and The New Saints have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
Cardiff MET and The New Saints have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
CM wins
0
Draws
7
TNS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cardiff MET vs The New Saints · H/A from CM
DateH/AGameScore
07/11/25AThe New Saints Vs CM2-3
19/09/25HCM Vs The New Saints1-3
22/03/25HCM Vs The New Saints0-6
01/02/25AThe New Saints Vs CM3-1
14/01/25HCM Vs The New Saints0-2
16/11/24HCM Vs The New Saints1-3
12/10/24AThe New Saints Vs CM3-0
13/04/24HCM Vs The New Saints0-5

Cardiff METCardiff MET

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/11/25AThe New Saints Vs CM2-3
01/11/25HCM Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-3
25/10/25HCM Vs Flint Town United4-1
18/10/25HCM Vs Taffs Well5-1
11/10/25AColwyn Bay Vs CM0-0
07/10/25Allanelli AFC Vs CM1-3
04/10/25HCM Vs Bala Town2-0
28/09/25ACaernarfon Town Vs CM0-3
23/09/25HCM Vs Penybont0-4
19/09/25HCM Vs The New Saints1-3

The New SaintsThe New Saints

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/11/25AFlint Town United Vs TNS0-3
07/11/25HTNS Vs Cardiff MET2-3
01/11/25AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs TNS2-3
24/10/25Allanelli AFC Vs TNS0-4
18/10/25AMold Alexandra Vs TNS1-2
11/10/25HTNS Vs Penybont6-2
07/10/25ACaernarfon Town Vs TNS1-3
04/10/25HTNS Vs Barry Town4-0
26/09/25ABala Town Vs TNS0-2
23/09/25HTNS Vs Flint Town United4-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cardiff MET
Cardiff MET
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.36
HomeLWWWL1.50
AwayDWWDW1.21
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%29%
AVG goals2.903.382.38
Over 1.5 %78%92%62%
Over 2.5 %62%69%54%
Over 3.5 %34%42%25%
Scored1.381.621.12
Conceded1.521.771.25
BTTS60%65%54%
Clean Sheet24%19%29%
Corners---
Cards---
The New Saints
The New Saints
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLW2.18
HomeWWWWL2.32
AwayWWWWW2.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%76%64%
AVG goals3.483.883.08
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %68%80%56%
Over 3.5 %48%52%44%
Scored2.522.842.20
Conceded0.961.040.88
BTTS50%52%48%
Clean Sheet36%32%40%
Corners9.009.009.00
Cards3.504.003.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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