Carrarese is expected to come out on top in this match, with a 44% chance of a home win. This is reflected in the model's pick, which also favours the home side. The match is likely to be a low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.7 goals and a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.3%.
Carrarese has a strong home form, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 0.4 goals against opponents of similar strength. On the other hand, Mantova has struggled away from home, scoring 1.33 goals and conceding 1.17 goals against similar opponents.
The model suggests a few selections, including Over 21.5 fouls (95.2% probability), Home or Draw (76.0% probability), Over 1.5 (76.0% probability), Under 3.5 (71.8% probability), and Home or Away (71.6% probability). Carrarese has a 44% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Carrarese, the pre-match favourite with a 44 % probability of victory, fell short as Mantova claimed a 1-2 away win. The model’s call was wrong, and the final score confirmed the away triumph. The model had also predicted a 2-goal total, but the match saw only three goals. Its suggested picks were a near-certain hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6 %, Under 6.5 at 98.6 %, Under 5.5 at 95.8 %, and the other eight selections - Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1 %), Over 19.5 fouls (98.0 %) - all landed. The home side’s recent form, after two straight defeats, ended in a loss, while Mantova’s recent win-heavy run continued with a victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Carrarese win✗ Miss
43.5%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.35
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.51
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.41
Superbet
2.37
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.17
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Dafabet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Mantova win✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.01
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
Dafabet
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Pinnacle
3.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Carrarese
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.33
0.87
0.93
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.31
1.31
0.77
0.92
1.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mantova
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.43
1.53
1.27
1.07
1.60
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
3.33
2.50
3.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.26
1.22
1.38
0.92
1.14
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrarese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
@ 1.29+4.0%
Under 1.5
23.7%
@ 3.37-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.96+2.4%
Under 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.82-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.06
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
@ 3.34+0.6%
Under 3.5
71.5%
@ 1.30-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
888Sport
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.46
Superbet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
@ 1.70+0.8%
No
44.7%
@ 2.04-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
No
Betfair
2.20
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 5.80+5.6%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.51+3.9%
1-0
9.0%@ 7.54+3.0%
0-0
8.0%@ 9.10+3.0%
2-0
7.7%@ 10.96+3.6%
1-2 ✓
7.2%@ 9.86+2.6%
0-1
6.8%@ 8.83+1.7%
2-2
5.4%@ 12.09+1.7%
Carrarese goals ↓
Mantova goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.8%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.0%
13%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.1%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.9%
4.6%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.5%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carrarese goals (down), columns = Mantova goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Palermo
1.88
Hellas Verona
1.82
Pisa
1.72
Catanzaro
1.58
Cremonese
1.54
Modena
1.41
Juve Stabia
1.34
Avellino
1.26
Padova
1.21
Cesena
1.21
Mantova
1.21
Arezzo
1.19
Benevento
1.17
Vicenza Virtus
1.16
Sampdoria
1.16
Carrarese
1.16
Ascoli
1.15
Virtus Entella
1.11
Empoli
1.08
Sudtirol
1.07
Carrarese is 0.05 points worse than Mantova in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hellas Verona
1.73
Catanzaro
1.63
Pisa
1.63
Palermo
1.57
Cremonese
1.46
Modena
1.26
Empoli
1.24
Carrarese
1.24
Cesena
1.18
Mantova
1.18
Juve Stabia
1.17
Arezzo
1.13
Benevento
1.11
Avellino
1.10
Vicenza Virtus
1.10
Ascoli
1.09
Padova
1.03
Sudtirol
0.95
Virtus Entella
0.95
Sampdoria
0.92
Carrarese is 0.05 goals better than Mantova in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Palermo
0.90
Hellas Verona
0.94
Modena
0.95
Pisa
1.00
Cremonese
1.11
Juve Stabia
1.20
Sudtirol
1.20
Sampdoria
1.26
Catanzaro
1.28
Padova
1.29
Virtus Entella
1.34
Carrarese
1.37
Empoli
1.42
Arezzo
1.43
Benevento
1.46
Vicenza Virtus
1.47
Cesena
1.47
Avellino
1.49
Ascoli
1.49
Mantova
1.50
Carrarese is 0.13 goals better than Mantova in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Mantova
57%
Catanzaro
54%
Juve Stabia
53%
Sampdoria
51%
Carrarese
51%
Modena
50%
Avellino
50%
Cesena
50%
Palermo
49%
Empoli
48%
Padova
48%
Virtus Entella
46%
Sudtirol
41%
Carrarese is 6.6 percentage points worse than Mantova in terms of average possession (51% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Carrarese
For 6.6 · Against 5.6 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 14.1 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mantova
For 3.8 · Against 4.1 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 15.0 · Total 31.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Carrarese
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.8
11.0
5.2
5.2
5.2
28.2
29.2
27.2
vs Stronger (5)
10.8
10.5
11.0
4.6
5.5
4.0
26.8
29.5
25.0
vs Similar (45)
10.4
9.8
11.0
5.3
5.1
5.4
28.4
29.2
27.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
60%
68%
72%
72%
72%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
36%
40%
32%
28%
28%
28%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mantova
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.4
5.2
5.5
4.9
33.0
33.2
32.8
vs Stronger (4)
9.2
9.5
9.0
5.2
4.5
6.0
31.8
27.5
36.0
vs Similar (45)
9.5
9.6
9.5
5.3
5.6
4.9
33.0
33.6
32.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
2.0
-
2.0
36.0
-
36.0
% over line
47%
42%
52%
82%
88%
75%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
53%
58%
48%
18%
12%
25%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Carrarese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Benevento
11.0
Vicenza Virtus
10.5
Carrarese
10.4
Virtus Entella
10.1
Padova
10.1
Empoli
9.5
Mantova
9.5
Palermo
9.4
Cesena
9.4
Ascoli
9.3
Sampdoria
9.2
Cremonese
9.1
Avellino
9.1
Juve Stabia
9.0
Catanzaro
8.9
Modena
8.8
Hellas Verona
8.7
Sudtirol
8.5
Pisa
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ascoli
5.6
Vicenza Virtus
5.6
Carrarese
5.2
Mantova
5.2
Sampdoria
5.1
Catanzaro
4.9
Avellino
4.9
Palermo
4.9
Juve Stabia
4.8
Padova
4.8
Modena
4.7
Benevento
4.6
Empoli
4.5
Virtus Entella
4.4
Sudtirol
4.3
Cesena
4.1
Cremonese
4.1
Hellas Verona
4.1
Pisa
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Mantova
33.0
Sampdoria
32.8
Ascoli
32.6
Avellino
31.2
Catanzaro
30.8
Sudtirol
30.7
Juve Stabia
30.2
Vicenza Virtus
29.9
Empoli
29.9
Virtus Entella
29.9
Padova
29.2
Modena
28.7
Benevento
28.6
Palermo
28.3
Cremonese
28.3
Carrarese
28.2
Cesena
26.2
Hellas Verona
25.8
Pisa
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.2%
@ 1.84-2.4%
Under 9.5
51.8%
@ 1.89+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.88
Unibet
1.74
Under
Superbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.9%
@ 1.29-0.3%
Under 3.5
31.1%
@ 2.90+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.29
Under
Superbet
2.90
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
95.0%
Under 21.5
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Carrarese or Draw✗ Miss
76.0%
Avg Implied 69.0% · @ 1.35
Edge
+7.0%
44%
28%
29%
covers Carrarese + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Carrarese or Mantova✓ Hit
71.6%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.32
Edge
+0.8%
44%
28%
29%
covers Carrarese + Mantova
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Draw or Mantova✓ Hit
52.4%
Avg Implied 60.3% · @ 1.55
Edge
-7.8%
44%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Mantova
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.62
Superbet
1.59
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.57
888Sport
1.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Carrarese over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.7%
@ 1.25+3.5%
Under
22.3%
@ 3.59-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.74
Marathonbet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Carrarese over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.2%
@ 2.27+3.2%
Under
55.8%
@ 1.58-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
888Sport
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
Under
Betano
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.59
Carrarese over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.1%
@ 5.08+0.9%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.13-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.40
1xBet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
888Sport
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
Carrarese over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 12.81-0.9%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.03+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Mantova over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.2%
@ 1.34-6.2%
Under
36.8%
@ 3.02+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Mantova over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
26.4%
@ 2.66-8.6%
Under
73.6%
@ 1.43+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.77
Bet365
2.75
888Sport
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Mantova over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 6.62-6.0%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.08+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
888Sport
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Mantova over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 17.88-3.5%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Carrarese, so a minus line means Carrarese give that many goals of a start and Mantova receive them. At -1, Carrarese must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Carrarese win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Carrarese)Actual: Mantova
Carrarese -2
9.8%
@ 9.66+0.7%
Draw -2
14.8%
@ 6.25+0.7%
Mantova +2
75.4%
@ 1.15-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
9.20
Marathonbet
6.60
Draw
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.30
Unibet
6.10
Marathonbet
4.85
Away
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Carrarese)Actual: Mantova
Carrarese -1
24.6%
@ 4.53+4.9%
Draw -1
22.9%
@ 3.95+0.3%
Mantova +1
52.4%
@ 1.55-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.35
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Away
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Bet365
1.53
Handicap +1 (Carrarese)Actual: Draw
Carrarese +1
76.0%
@ 1.35+9.7%
Draw +1
14.9%
@ 4.55-4.9%
Mantova -1
9.1%
@ 6.46-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Draw
Marathonbet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Handicap +2 (Carrarese)Actual: Carrarese
Carrarese +2
90.9%
@ 1.08+4.8%
Draw +2
6.6%
@ 10.00-2.7%
Mantova -2
2.5%
@ 20.00-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
9.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Carrarese
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.73
0.40
0.40
0.20
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.69
0.38
0.38
0.23
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mantova
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.52
0.54
0.31
0.64
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrarese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.5%
@ 1.39+0.7%
Under 0.5
32.5%
@ 2.81-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Unibet
2.85
Superbet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.5%
@ 2.83-2.5%
Under 1.5
69.5%
@ 1.39+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 7.35-2.5%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.07+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
William Hil
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carrarese over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.6%
@ 2.01+1.3%
Under
52.4%
@ 1.73-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Carrarese over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 6.19-1.4%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.09+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.65
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Carrarese over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 17.67-2.6%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Mantova over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.2%
@ 2.20-3.1%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.61+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Under
Pinnacle
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Mantova over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 7.34-3.1%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.06+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Mantova over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 19.25-3.8%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Carrarese
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.62
0.92
0.38
0.69
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mantova) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mantova
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
2.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.70
0.85
0.62
0.50
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrarese) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.7%
Under 0.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.6%
Under 1.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.8%
Under 2.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carrarese over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.3%
Under
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrarese over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.7%
Under
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrarese over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.9%
Under
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mantova over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.02
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.0%
1.08
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.9%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.1%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.9%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.3%
1.29
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
76.0%
1.35
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
76.0%
1.35
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
+9.7%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
75.4%
1.15
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
1.32
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.6%
1.43
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
+8.6%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.33
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.5%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.29
-0.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Carrarese
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fabio Abiuso33%
Mattia Finotto0%
Niccolò Belloni0%
Filippo Oliana0%
Giovanni Garofani0%
Jonas Rouhi0%
Tommaso Guercio0%
Lorenzo Romani0%
Moustapha Cissé0%
Fabio Ruggeri0%
Gabriele Parlanti0%
Giacomo Marconi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Filippo Oliana33%
Fabio Abiuso33%
Jonas Rouhi33%
Fabio Ruggeri33%
Mattia Finotto0%
Niccolò Belloni0%
Giovanni Garofani0%
Tommaso Guercio0%
Lorenzo Romani0%
Moustapha Cissé0%
Gabriele Parlanti0%
Giacomo Marconi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jonas Rouhi33%
Moustapha Cissé33%
Mattia Finotto0%
Niccolò Belloni0%
Filippo Oliana0%
Giovanni Garofani0%
Fabio Abiuso0%
Tommaso Guercio0%
Lorenzo Romani0%
Fabio Ruggeri0%
Gabriele Parlanti0%
Giacomo Marconi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fabio Abiuso33%
Lorenzo Romani33%
Moustapha Cissé33%
Mattia Finotto0%
Niccolò Belloni0%
Filippo Oliana0%
Giovanni Garofani0%
Jonas Rouhi0%
Tommaso Guercio0%
Fabio Ruggeri0%
Gabriele Parlanti0%
Giacomo Marconi0%
Mantova
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
F. Ruocco100%
Ismael Cajazzo33%
F. Benaissa-Yahia25%
R. Ilie25%
S. Trimboli0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Stefano Cella0%
Ettore Gliozzi0%
Lorenzo Ignacchiti0%
B. Tomašević0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Alessio Castellini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Tomašević50%
Francesco Bardi25%
R. Ilie25%
F. Ruocco25%
Alessio Castellini25%
S. Trimboli0%
Stefano Cella0%
Ettore Gliozzi0%
F. Benaissa-Yahia0%
Lorenzo Ignacchiti0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Ismael Cajazzo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alessio Castellini50%
Stefano Cella25%
Ettore Gliozzi25%
R. Ilie25%
S. Trimboli0%
Francesco Bardi0%
F. Benaissa-Yahia0%
F. Ruocco0%
Lorenzo Ignacchiti0%
B. Tomašević0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Ismael Cajazzo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ettore Gliozzi25%
F. Ruocco25%
S. Trimboli0%
Francesco Bardi0%
Stefano Cella0%
F. Benaissa-Yahia0%
R. Ilie0%
Lorenzo Ignacchiti0%
B. Tomašević0%
Jonathan Silva0%
Alessio Castellini0%
Ismael Cajazzo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (36)
€71m
HV (34)
€57m
PAL (27)
€54m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
MOD (28)
€31m
CES (32)
€28m
AVE (27)
€26m
PAD (31)
€25m
MAN (32)
€24m
SUD (27)
€21m
CAT (30)
€21m
EMP (27)
€20m
CAR (22)
€15m
JS (33)
€13m
ARE (32)
€13m
BEN (30)
€12m
VV (26)
€11m
VE (27)
€11m
ASC (29)
€11m
Carrarese's squad is €9m less valuable than Mantova's (€15m vs €24m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (13)
€24m
PAL (7)
€23m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
MAN (12)
€12m
CAT (15)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
CES (10)
€10m
MOD (9)
€7m
PAD (9)
€6m
AVE (10)
€6m
CAR (5)
€5m
ASC (11)
€5m
ARE (10)
€4m
BEN (8)
€4m
VE (7)
€3m
SUD (5)
€3m
VV (6)
€2m
JS (8)
€2m
Carrarese's attack is €6m less valuable than Mantova's (€5m vs €12m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PIS (9)
€26m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
PAL (7)
€12m
MOD (9)
€11m
SUD (10)
€11m
AVE (6)
€9m
SAM (6)
€7m
PAD (9)
€7m
MAN (10)
€6m
VE (11)
€6m
EMP (9)
€6m
CES (9)
€5m
VV (12)
€5m
JS (11)
€5m
BEN (9)
€3m
ASC (6)
€3m
CAR (7)
€2m
ARE (6)
€2m
CAT (2)
€2m
Carrarese's midfield is €4m less valuable than Mantova's (€2m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
PIS (14)
€22m
PAL (13)
€19m
SAM (14)
€17m
MOD (10)
€12m
CES (13)
€12m
PAD (13)
€12m
AVE (11)
€11m
CAT (13)
€8m
SUD (12)
€8m
CAR (10)
€8m
MAN (10)
€7m
ARE (16)
€6m
JS (14)
€6m
BEN (13)
€5m
EMP (9)
€4m
VV (8)
€4m
ASC (12)
€3m
VE (9)
€2m
Carrarese and Mantova have a similar defence value (both €8m).
Italy: Serie B 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie B stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Modena
Palermo
Cesena
Ascoli
Sudtirol
Padova
Avellino
Arezzo
Pisa
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Vicenza Virtus
Benevento
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria
Catanzaro
Virtus Entella
Cremonese