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Carrick Rangers vs Ballymena United Result & Analysis

Date: 17/09/2024
Time: 18:45
Final 1-4
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Vs
47%
28%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Carrick Rangers win✗ Miss
47.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United win✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W21W21W13L20W03L23L12L01L13LA·NEW16/04H·LOU20/04A·GLE27/04A·CRU01/05H·GLE10/08A·LOU17/08H·GLE23/08A·CRU31/08H·POR07/09A·COL14/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.601.071.571.621.62
vs Stronger (9)1.222.001.002.401.501.50
vs Similar (21)1.431.431.111.111.671.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L01L20W02L24L01L01L31W10W10WA·DUN27/04A·INS30/04H·INS03/05H·LIN10/08A·COL16/08H·CRU20/08A·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.601.201.270.601.93
vs Stronger (14)0.641.711.000.670.382.50
vs Similar (16)1.121.501.331.670.861.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.3%
Under 1.5
26.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.6%
Under 2.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.1%
Under 3.5
74.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
9.1%
2-0
9.1%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
Carrick Rangers goals ↓
Ballymena United goals →
01234
09.1%6.9%4.1%1.4%0.4%
111%13%6.3%2.1%0.5%
29.1%9.3%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.6%4.7%2.4%0.8%0.2%
41.7%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carrick Rangers goals (down), columns = Ballymena United goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Carrick Rangers is 0.29 points worse than Ballymena United in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.24).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Carrick Rangers is 0.24 goals worse than Ballymena United in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Carrick Rangers is 0.13 goals worse than Ballymena United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.42).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W21W21W12L20W02L12L10W00D11DA·NEW16/04H·LOU20/04A·GLE27/04A·CRU01/05H·GLE10/08A·LOU17/08H·GLE23/08A·CRU31/08H·POR07/09A·COL14/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.570.570.810.88
vs Stronger (9)0.440.890.401.000.500.75
vs Similar (21)0.810.670.670.330.920.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D00D11D01L01L21W00D00DA·DUN27/04A·INS30/04H·INS03/05H·LIN10/08A·COL16/08H·CRU20/08A·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.600.530.670.270.53
vs Stronger (14)0.070.570.000.330.120.75
vs Similar (16)0.690.620.890.890.430.29
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L00D01L11D02L01L02LA·NEW16/04H·LOU20/04A·GLE27/04A·CRU01/05H·GLE10/08A·LOU17/08H·GLE23/08A·CRU31/08H·POR07/09A·COL14/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.870.501.000.810.75
vs Stronger (9)0.781.110.601.401.000.75
vs Similar (21)0.620.760.440.780.750.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L20W02L13L00D00D10W10W10WA·DUN27/04A·INS30/04H·INS03/05H·LIN10/08A·COL16/08H·CRU20/08A·DUN24/08H·GLE30/08A·LAR07/09H·GLE14/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.000.670.600.331.40
vs Stronger (14)0.571.141.000.330.251.75
vs Similar (16)0.440.880.440.780.431.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.573.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Ballymena United have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Ballymena United have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Ballymena United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Ballymena United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
CR wins
0
Draws
3
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Carrick Rangers vs Ballymena United · H/A from CR
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24HCR Vs Ballymena United2-1
16/03/24ABallymena United Vs CR0-2
15/12/23ABallymena United Vs CR0-2
09/09/23HCR Vs Ballymena United0-1
29/04/23ABallymena United Vs CR1-0
14/02/23HCR Vs Ballymena United1-0
26/11/22HCR Vs Ballymena United0-2
17/09/22ABallymena United Vs CR0-1

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/24AColeraine FC Vs CR3-1
07/09/24HCR Vs Portadown0-1
31/08/24ACrusaders FC Vs CR2-1
23/08/24HCR Vs Glentoran2-3
17/08/24ALoughgall Vs CR3-0
10/08/24HCR Vs Glenavon FC2-0
01/05/24ACrusaders FC Vs CR3-1
27/04/24AGlenavon FC Vs CR1-2
20/04/24HCR Vs Loughgall2-1
16/04/24ANewry City AFC Vs CR1-3

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/24HBU Vs Glentoran1-0
07/09/24ALarne Vs BU0-1
30/08/24HBU Vs Glenavon FC3-1
24/08/24ADungannon Swifts Vs BU1-0
20/08/24HBU Vs Crusaders FC0-1
16/08/24AColeraine FC Vs BU4-2
10/08/24HBU Vs Linfield0-2
03/05/24HBU Vs Institute2-0
30/04/24AInstitute Vs BU1-0
27/04/24ADungannon Swifts Vs BU3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.12
HomeWWWLL1.04
AwayWLLLL1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals3.222.623.77
Over 1.5 %86%79%92%
Over 2.5 %62%54%69%
Over 3.5 %38%21%54%
Scored1.301.081.50
Conceded1.921.542.27
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet14%12%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW0.94
HomeWLLWW1.12
AwayLLLLW0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%35%21%
AVG goals2.502.352.67
Over 1.5 %64%65%62%
Over 2.5 %40%31%50%
Over 3.5 %28%27%29%
Scored0.861.040.67
Conceded1.641.312.00
BTTS30%31%29%
Clean Sheet24%27%21%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LinfieldLinfield3885
71%
2.2
6928+41
2.6
71%
55%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.7
-
2Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC4064
48%
1.6
6241+21
2.6
78%
45%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.61.0
-
3LarneLarne3863
45%
1.7
4633+13
2.1
66%
34%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.20.9
-
4GlentoranGlentoran3961
44%
1.6
4939+10
2.3
67%
41%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.0
-
5Coleraine FCColeraine FC4058
40%
1.4
5652+4
2.7
80%
55%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
-
6Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3857
45%
1.5
5148+3
2.6
71%
42%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.31.3
-
7PortadownPortadown3856
42%
1.5
4845+3
2.4
76%
42%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.2
-
8Crusaders FCCrusaders FC3954
41%
1.4
4754-7
2.6
67%
51%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.4
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3847
37%
1.2
4754-7
2.7
66%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.4
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3846
32%
1.2
4247-5
2.3
71%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.11.2
-
11Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers4038
22%
0.9
4062-22
2.5
70%
55%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.6
-
12LoughgallLoughgall3822
13%
0.6
3685-49
3.2
82%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United20
0%
0.0
38-5
5.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.54.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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