Carrick Rangers face a tough test at home as Linfield, riding a three-game winning streak, are the clear favourites to secure victory. The model projects a 48% chance of an away win, 28% for a draw and 24% for a home win, making the away triumph the most likely outcome. With an expected total of 2.6 goals, the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% probability. Carrick Rangers have struggled on home turf against stronger opponents, scoring only 0.67 goals per match while conceding 2.0. Linfield, meanwhile, thrive away from home against weaker sides, netting 1.75 goals and allowing just 0.75.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 5.5 at 95.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.8%, Home under 2.5 goals at 91.1%, Away +2 handicap at 90.4% and Under 4.5 at 87.8%. These picks reflect the expectation of a low-scoring affair dominated by Linfield’s offensive potency.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Carrick Rangers win
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield win
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Carrick Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.60
1.87
1.73
2.00
1.47
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
2.00
0.67
2.00
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (19)
2.37
1.37
2.67
1.56
2.10
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.94
1.00
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.23
0.62
1.12
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.47
0.82
3.11
0.89
1.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.4%
0-2
9.1%
0-0
8.7%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
6.3%
1-3
4.9%
Carrick Rangers goals ↓
Linfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
10%
9.1%
4.7%
1.8%
1
6.5%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.0%
6.3%
4.9%
2.5%
1.0%
3
1.4%
2.2%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carrick Rangers goals (down), columns = Linfield goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Carrick Rangers is 0.41 points worse than Linfield in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.77).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Carrick Rangers is 0.03 goals better than Linfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.64).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Carrick Rangers is 0.69 goals worse than Linfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 0.87).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Carrick Rangers or Draw
51.8%
Avg Implied -
24%
28%
48%
covers Carrick Rangers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers or Linfield
72.2%
Avg Implied -
24%
28%
48%
covers Carrick Rangers + Linfield
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Linfield
76.0%
Avg Implied -
24%
28%
48%
covers Draw + Linfield
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5
Over
20.6%
Under
79.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Carrick Rangers, so a minus line means Carrick Rangers give that many goals of a start and Linfield receive them. At -1, Carrick Rangers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Carrick Rangers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Carrick Rangers)
Carrick Rangers -2
2.7%
Draw -2
6.7%
Linfield +2
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Carrick Rangers)
Carrick Rangers -1
9.3%
Draw -1
14.7%
Linfield +1
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Carrick Rangers)
Carrick Rangers +1
51.8%
Draw +1
22.7%
Linfield -1
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Carrick Rangers)
Carrick Rangers +2
74.5%
Draw +2
15.0%
Linfield -2
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Carrick Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.53
0.93
0.67
1.27
0.40
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.64
0.33
0.83
1.40
0.40
vs Similar (19)
1.26
0.47
1.33
0.56
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.76
0.47
0.46
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.54
0.25
0.75
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.29
1.22
0.22
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Carrick Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.07
0.93
1.07
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.36
0.33
1.17
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.89
1.33
1.00
0.90
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Linfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.18
0.53
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.69
0.38
0.38
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.53
1.89
0.67
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Linfield have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Linfield have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Linfield have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Linfield have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor