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Carrick Rangers vs Portadown Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Vs
47%
24%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Portadown
Portadown
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Carrick Rangers host Portadown in the Northern-Ireland: Premiership on August 8th. Recent form has seen the home side, Carrick Rangers, coming off a defeat to Dungannon Swifts, while Portadown is on a 2-game winning run. The model's pick is a home win, with a 47% chance of success, compared to a 24% draw probability and 29% away win probability. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely score being 1-1 with a probability of 10.8%.

Carrick Rangers have a strong home record, scoring 2.86 goals and conceding 1.86 goals when facing opponents of similar strength. Portadown, however, struggles away from home, scoring 1.3 goals and conceding 1.8 goals when facing opponents of similar strength. The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, which has an 85.3% probability, with an 11% edge.

The home win percentage is 47%, the draw percentage is 24%, and the away win percentage is 29%. The model also suggests a Home win selection with a 47% probability, a Draw selection with a 24% probability, and an Away win selection with a 29% probability.

Results analysis

Carrick Rangers' win extends their run of four matches without a defeat, following a 1-0 scoreline against Portadown. The model's selection, a home win, was correct with a pre-match probability of 47%. The final score far exceeded the model's expected total of 3.3 goals, with the actual total being significantly higher. The model's selection, a home win, was the pre-match favourite. The model's suggested picks included Over 1.5 goals, which was the model's selection with an 85.3% probability, but it missed the mark.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Carrick Rangers win✓ Hit
46.8%
Avg Implied 51.4% · @ 1.77
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.83
William Hil
1.80
888Sport
1.80
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Draw✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.76
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.21
888Sport
3.90
William Hil
3.90
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Portadown win✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.73
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.00
Betfair
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Betano
3.80
Bet365
3.80

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D01L12L20W61W11D23L30W32W13LH·BAN28/02A·GLE03/03A·BAL14/03H·LIN20/03H·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.631.871.801.671.47
vs Stronger (11)1.181.910.671.831.802.00
vs Similar (19)2.111.472.671.781.601.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PortadownPortadown

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L02L11D13L00D11D11D04L21W42WA·GLE28/02H·CLI04/03A·BAL07/03A·LIN10/03H·CRU21/03A·GLE04/04H·CAR07/04A·CRU11/04A·BAL18/04A·BAN25/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.531.081.081.291.88
vs Stronger (6)1.171.832.000.500.752.50
vs Similar (24)1.211.460.911.181.461.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%512%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
85.3%
@ 1.23+10.5%
Under 1.5
14.7%
@ 3.64-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Under
Betfair
4.10
888Sport
3.90
Pinnacle
3.88
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
64.4%
@ 1.74+11.6%
Under 2.5
35.6%
@ 1.95-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
888Sport
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
42.4%
@ 2.80+9.7%
Under 3.5
57.6%
@ 1.36-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
10Bet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Under
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.6%
@ 1.69+11.5%
No
34.4%
@ 1.99-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
William Hil
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
No
1xBet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Bet365
2.00

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 6.54+4.3%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.43+3.5%
1-2
7.1%@ 11.14+3.3%
2-2
6.6%@ 12.57+3.3%
2-0
6.4%@ 8.32+1.3%
1-0 ✓
5.8%@ 7.08-0.2%
3-1
5.7%@ 12.50+2.3%
0-0
4.6%@ 10.64+0.6%
Carrick Rangers goals ↓
Portadown goals →
01234
04.6%4.2%3.8%1.8%0.7%
15.8%11%7.1%3.4%1.2%
26.4%9.2%6.6%3.2%1.2%
34.0%5.7%4.1%2.0%0.7%
41.9%2.7%1.9%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carrick Rangers goals (down), columns = Portadown goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Carrick Rangers is 0.20 points better than Portadown in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.16).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Carrick Rangers is 0.51 goals better than Portadown in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.16).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Carrick Rangers is 0.17 goals better than Portadown in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.74).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D00D10W21W01L11D20W01L11DH·BAN28/02A·GLE03/03A·BAL14/03H·LIN20/03H·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.630.930.801.070.47
vs Stronger (11)0.820.730.331.001.400.40
vs Similar (19)1.110.581.330.670.900.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PortadownPortadown

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L00D11D00D10W10W03L10W21WA·GLE28/02H·CLI04/03A·BAL07/03A·LIN10/03H·CRU21/03A·GLE04/04H·CAR07/04A·CRU11/04A·BAL18/04A·BAN25/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.630.460.460.470.76
vs Stronger (6)0.670.671.000.500.500.75
vs Similar (24)0.420.620.360.450.460.77
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L12L10W40W10W12L10W31W02LH·BAN28/02A·GLE03/03A·BAL14/03H·LIN20/03H·CRU28/03A·POR07/04H·BAL11/04A·BAN18/04A·GLE25/04A·DUN06/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.000.931.000.601.00
vs Stronger (11)0.361.180.330.830.401.60
vs Similar (19)1.000.891.331.110.700.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Portadown) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PortadownPortadown

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L11D02L00D01L01L01L11D21WA·GLE28/02H·CLI04/03A·BAL07/03A·LIN10/03H·CRU21/03A·GLE04/04H·CAR07/04A·CRU11/04A·BAL18/04A·BAN25/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.900.620.620.821.12
vs Stronger (6)0.501.171.000.000.251.75
vs Similar (24)0.790.830.550.731.000.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portadown over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.585.3%1.23
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
+10.5%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Portadown have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Portadown have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Portadown have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Carrick Rangers and Portadown have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
CR wins
2
Draws
3
POR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Carrick Rangers vs Portadown · H/A from CR
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/26APortadown Vs CR1-1
31/01/26APortadown Vs CR0-3
22/11/25HCR Vs Portadown1-2
11/10/25HCR Vs Portadown1-0
05/04/25HCR Vs Portadown4-1
08/03/25APortadown Vs CR1-0
09/11/24APortadown Vs CR1-1
07/09/24HCR Vs Portadown0-1

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26ADungannon Swifts Vs CR3-1
25/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs CR2-3
18/04/26ABangor Vs CR0-3
11/04/26HCR Vs Ballymena United2-3
07/04/26APortadown Vs CR1-1
28/03/26HCR Vs Crusaders FC6-1
20/03/26HCR Vs Linfield2-0
14/03/26ABallymena United Vs CR2-1
03/03/26AGlentoran Vs CR1-0
28/02/26HCR Vs Bangor1-1

PortadownPortadown

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26ABangor Vs POR2-4
18/04/26ABallymena United Vs POR1-2
11/04/26ACrusaders FC Vs POR4-0
07/04/26HPOR Vs Carrick Rangers1-1
04/04/26AGlenavon FC Vs POR1-1
21/03/26HPOR Vs Crusaders FC0-0
10/03/26ALinfield Vs POR3-1
07/03/26ABallymena United Vs POR1-1
04/03/26HPOR Vs Cliftonville FC0-2
28/02/26AGlenavon FC Vs POR3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWL1.36
HomeDDWWL1.40
AwayLDWWL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals3.223.243.20
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored1.641.641.64
Conceded1.581.601.56
BTTS64%64%64%
Clean Sheet20%24%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Portadown
Portadown
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.24
HomeWWLDD1.64
AwayLDLWW0.84
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%48%24%
AVG goals2.802.403.20
Over 1.5 %82%76%88%
Over 2.5 %54%36%72%
Over 3.5 %28%20%36%
Scored1.181.201.16
Conceded1.621.202.04
BTTS52%48%56%
Clean Sheet18%32%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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