PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Carroi vs Atlètic Amèrica Result & Analysis

Date: 19/02/2025
Time: 19:30
Final 1-1
Carroi
Carroi
Vs
48%
22%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Atlètic Amèrica
Atlètic Amèrica
Andorra: 2a Divisió
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Carroi is coming off a win, having beaten Inter Club d'Escaldes 2-1. However, their home form against similar opponents has been modest, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 1.6. Atlético Améríca, on the other hand, has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, but their away scoring and conceding record against similar opponents is less impressive, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 2.6 conceded.

This match is likely to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 4 goals and a most likely total of 6+. The most probable scoreline is a 2-1 home win for Carroi, with a probability of 8.1%.

Carroi is the favourite to win, with a 48% chance of victory, followed by a 31% chance of an Atlético Améríca win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model's selection is a home win.

The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 91.5% probability, and BTTS Yes, with a 74.8% probability. Over 2.5 goals is not the model's selection, with a 76.1% probability of missing. Carroi has a 48% chance of winning, a 22% chance of drawing, and a 31% chance of losing.

Results analysis

A dramatic turn of events in Andorra's 2a Divisió, as Carroi's unbeaten run in front of their home fans came to an end with a 1-1 draw against Atlético América. The home side's win streak was extended to five matches, but it was not enough to secure all three points. In a major upset, the model's selection, a home win, failed to materialize, with the probability of 48% proving to be incorrect. Atlético América's away form, unbeaten in their last five matches, was a significant factor in the draw. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed well, with Over 1.5 goals hitting at 91.5% probability and BTTS Yes also hitting at 74.8%. However, the selection of Over 2.5 goals missed the mark, coming in at 76.1%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Carroi win✗ Miss
47.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atlètic Amèrica win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CarroiCarroi

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-812L22D10W31W21W41W40W80W31W20WA·ATL29/09A·UE 20/10A·CIT27/10H·RAN10/11A·CIT01/12H·RAN19/01A·UE 25/01A·RAN01/02H·CIT08/02H·UE 16/02
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.001.082.151.711.88
vs Stronger (13)0.772.850.403.401.002.50
vs Similar (7)1.431.570.671.332.001.75
vs Weaker (10)2.301.202.001.402.601.00
Clean sheet %20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Atlètic Amèrica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Atlètic AmèricaAtlètic Amèrica

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-808L21W01L50W41W11D02L24L13L30WA·ATL19/05H·CAR29/09A·RAN05/10A·CIT19/10A·UE 09/11H·RAN24/11H·UE 18/01A·CIT26/01H·CIT02/02H·UE 09/02
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.971.202.871.203.07
vs Stronger (8)0.504.750.675.000.404.60
vs Similar (2)0.003.500.001.000.006.00
vs Weaker (20)1.602.201.452.451.781.89
Clean sheet %7% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%06%115%220%320%416%521%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.5%
Under 1.5
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
76.1%
Under 2.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.6%
Under 3.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
74.8%
No
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.1%
1-1 ✓
8.0%
2-2
7.1%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.0%
3-2
5.3%
2-0
4.5%
2-3
4.2%
Carroi goals ↓
Atlètic Amèrica goals →
01234
02.6%2.5%2.9%1.7%0.8%
13.4%8.0%6.4%3.8%1.7%
24.5%8.1%7.1%4.2%1.9%
33.4%6.0%5.3%3.1%1.4%
41.9%3.3%2.9%1.7%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carroi goals (down), columns = Atlètic Amèrica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Carroi
2.19
Atlètic Amèrica
1.88
City Escaldes
1.44
UE Santa Coloma II
1.00
Ranger's II
0.62
Carroi is 0.31 points better than Atlètic Amèrica in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Carroi
2.50
Atlètic Amèrica
2.19
City Escaldes
1.88
UE Santa Coloma II
1.31
Ranger's II
1.00
Carroi is 0.31 goals better than Atlètic Amèrica in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 2.19).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Carroi
0.88
Atlètic Amèrica
1.00
UE Santa Coloma II
1.81
City Escaldes
1.81
Ranger's II
3.38
Carroi is 0.12 goals better than Atlètic Amèrica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.576.1%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes74.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (34)
€5m
ACI (35)
€5m
USC (26)
€5m
CAR (29)
€3m
CE (51)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (0)
€0m
ACI (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
CE (0)
€0m
USC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (0)
€0m
ACI (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
CE (0)
€0m
USC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (0)
€0m
ACI (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
CE (0)
€0m
USC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Carroi vs Atlètic Amèrica · H/A from CAR
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/24AAtlètic Amèrica Vs CAR2-1
20/04/24HCAR Vs Atlètic Amèrica2-3
10/12/23AAtlètic Amèrica Vs CAR1-3
17/09/23HCAR Vs Atlètic Amèrica2-2
20/05/23AAtlètic Amèrica Vs CAR2-3
26/03/23HCAR Vs Atlètic Amèrica1-4
27/11/22AAtlètic Amèrica Vs CAR2-2

CarroiCarroi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/02/25HCAR Vs UE Santa Coloma II2-0
08/02/25HCAR Vs City Escaldes3-1
01/02/25ARanger's II Vs CAR0-8
25/01/25AUE Santa Coloma II Vs CAR0-4
19/01/25HCAR Vs Ranger's II4-1
01/12/24ACity Escaldes Vs CAR1-2
10/11/24HCAR Vs Ranger's II3-1
27/10/24ACity Escaldes Vs CAR0-1
20/10/24AUE Santa Coloma II Vs CAR2-2
29/09/24AAtlètic Amèrica Vs CAR2-1

Atlètic AmèricaAtlètic Amèrica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/02/25HAA Vs UE Santa Coloma II3-0
02/02/25HAA Vs City Escaldes1-3
26/01/25ACity Escaldes Vs AA4-2
18/01/25HAA Vs UE Santa Coloma II0-2
24/11/24HAA Vs Ranger's II1-1
09/11/24AUE Santa Coloma II Vs AA1-4
19/10/24ACity Escaldes Vs AA0-5
05/10/24ARanger's II Vs AA1-0
29/09/24HAA Vs Carroi2-1
19/05/24AAtlètic Club d'Escaldes Vs AA8-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Carroi
Carroi
Andorra: 2a Divisió
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW1.32
HomeLWWWW1.26
AwayDWWWW1.37
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%39%41%
AVG goals3.543.483.59
Over 1.5 %92%96%89%
Over 2.5 %68%61%74%
Over 3.5 %50%52%48%
Scored1.581.521.63
Conceded1.961.961.96
BTTS44%35%52%
Clean Sheet28%26%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Atlètic Amèrica
Atlètic Amèrica
Andorra: 2a Divisió
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.10
HomeWDLLW0.92
AwayLLWWL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%24%40%
AVG goals3.783.883.68
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %70%72%68%
Over 3.5 %48%48%48%
Scored1.501.601.40
Conceded2.282.282.28
BTTS50%64%36%
Clean Sheet16%12%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CarroiCarroi1635
69%
2.2
4014+26
3.4
75%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0002.50.9
-
2Atlètic AmèricaAtlètic Amèrica1630
56%
1.9
3516+19
3.2
88%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
3City EscaldesCity Escaldes1623
44%
1.4
3029+1
3.7
75%
69%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.8
-
4UE Santa Coloma IIUE Santa Coloma II1616
25%
1.0
2129-8
3.1
75%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.31.8
-
5RangerRanger's II1610
19%
0.6
1654-38
4.4
88%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0001.03.4
-
6Atlètic Club IIAtlètic Club II00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
0000.00.0
-
Andorra: 2a Divisió 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 2a Divisió stats & trends →

← all matches