Carroi will face City Escaldes in the Andorra: 2a Divisió on May 17, 2025. City Escaldes are coming off two consecutive defeats, while Carroi is coming off a win. The model predicts a high-scoring match with an expected total of 3.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, but the most likely total goals is 3.
Carroi's recent form at home is a mixed bag, scoring 0.86 goals on average and conceding 1.43. City Escaldes' away form is also inconsistent, scoring 1.33 goals on average and conceding 2.0 against similar opponents. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 44%. The away win probability is 32%, and the draw probability is 24%. The model's selection is the Home win. The model's selection is the Over 1.5, with a probability of 87.2%.
Results analysis
The win extends Carroi's run, now three matches without a loss. The 1-0 scoreline was far removed from the 3.5 expected total goals, with the most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw, but only 22% of the predicted probabilities. The model correctly picked the home win, with a pre-match probability of 44%. The model's selection, Home win, was correct. The model's selection, Over 1.5, with a 87.2% probability, missed, while the actual result was a 1-0 score.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Carroi win✓ Hit
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
City Escaldes win✗ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Carroi
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.70
1.14
1.50
1.94
1.88
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
2.58
0.50
2.33
0.50
2.83
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.38
0.75
1.00
2.00
1.75
vs Weaker (10)
3.00
0.90
2.50
0.75
3.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (City Escaldes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
City Escaldes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.87
1.38
1.75
2.71
2.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.55
2.00
1.17
1.67
2.00
2.40
vs Similar (4)
3.25
1.50
2.00
2.00
4.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Carroi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
87.2%
Under 1.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.7%
Under 2.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.1%
Under 3.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.7%
No
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
5.5%
2-0
5.4%
1-0 ✓
4.8%
3-2
4.4%
Carroi goals ↓
City Escaldes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
4.0%
3.9%
2.1%
0.8%
1
4.8%
10%
7.4%
4.0%
1.6%
2
5.4%
8.7%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.4%
5.5%
4.4%
2.3%
0.9%
4
1.6%
2.6%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carroi goals (down), columns = City Escaldes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Carroi
2.19
Atlètic Amèrica
1.88
City Escaldes
1.44
UE Santa Coloma II
1.00
Ranger's II
0.62
Carroi is 0.75 points better than City Escaldes in terms of average points per game (2.19 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Carroi
2.50
Atlètic Amèrica
2.19
City Escaldes
1.88
UE Santa Coloma II
1.31
Ranger's II
1.00
Carroi is 0.62 goals better than City Escaldes in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 1.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Carroi
0.88
Atlètic Amèrica
1.00
UE Santa Coloma II
1.81
City Escaldes
1.81
Ranger's II
3.38
Carroi is 0.94 goals better than City Escaldes in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.81).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🔢 6. Odd / Even
🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 8. Handicap
🔥 9. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
💰 10. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RI (34)
€5m
ACI (35)
€5m
USC (26)
€5m
CAR (29)
€3m
CE (51)
€0m
Carroi's squad is €3m more valuable than City Escaldes's (€3m vs €0m).
Andorra: 2a Divisió 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 2a Divisió stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Atlètic Amèrica
UE Santa Coloma II
Ranger's II
Atlètic Club II