Castellón’s recent win and Albacete’s return from four losses set the stage for a home victory, the model’s pick. The odds lean 44% for a Castellón win, 28% for a draw and 28% for an Albacete win. Expect about 2.7 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.1%. Castellón, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 2.08 goals scored and 0.85 conceded, while Albacete, away, averages 0.73 scored and 0.82 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.8% with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5% with a 6% edge, Under 5.5 at 94.1% with a 4% edge, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0% with a 6% edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Castellón win
46.2%
Avg Implied 60.1% · @ 1.54
Edge
-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
William Hil
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.56
Draw
27.3%
Avg Implied 22.9% · @ 4.05
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.30
1xBet
4.27
Marathonbet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Albacete win
26.6%
Avg Implied 17.0% · @ 5.45
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.70
Pinnacle
5.68
1xBet
5.66
Dafabet
5.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Castellón
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.17
1.87
0.93
1.40
1.40
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.71
1.14
2.08
0.85
1.40
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Albacete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Albacete
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.20
1.59
1.47
1.00
0.85
vs Stronger (7)
2.00
1.43
1.80
1.60
2.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
1.13
1.50
1.42
0.73
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Castellón) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
@ 1.18-1.6%
Under 1.5
22.9%
@ 4.37+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
4.48
Betano
4.40
BetVictor
4.40
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.6%
@ 1.64-5.9%
Under 2.5
48.4%
@ 2.22+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Under
1xBet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.29
Betano
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.5%
@ 2.54-7.2%
Under 3.5
70.5%
@ 1.47+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Betano
2.60
10Bet
2.60
Under
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Both teams to score
Yes
55.7%
@ 1.69+0.9%
No
44.3%
@ 2.04-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Betano
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
No
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Marathonbet
2.08
BetVictor
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%@ 7.23+6.9%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.26+3.3%
1-0
9.0%@ 7.32+3.1%
2-0
8.1%@ 7.55+2.3%
0-0
7.6%@ 12.27+4.1%
1-2
6.8%@ 14.76+3.9%
0-1
6.3%@ 14.66+3.3%
2-2
5.4%@ 13.06+2.1%
Castellón goals ↓
Albacete goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
6.3%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.0%
13%
6.8%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.4%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
4.3%
5.0%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.7%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Castellón goals (down), columns = Albacete goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Valladolid
1.10
Leganes
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Castellón is 0.25 points better than Albacete in terms of average points per game (1.66 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Castellón is 0.33 goals better than Albacete in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Castellón is 0.06 goals better than Albacete in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Castellón is 12.8 percentage points better than Albacete in terms of average possession (55% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Castellón
For 7.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.7 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 15.4 · Total 28.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Albacete
For 5.4 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Castellón
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.7
10.2
5.8
6.5
5.1
28.2
28.8
27.6
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
6.0
15.0
4.5
5.0
4.0
28.0
26.0
30.0
vs Similar (47)
10.0
9.9
10.0
5.8
6.5
5.2
28.3
29.2
27.5
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
51%
50%
52%
86%
96%
77%
94%
96%
92%
% under line
49%
50%
48%
14%
4%
23%
6%
4%
8%
This opponent (Albacete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Albacete
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.5
11.0
4.3
3.8
5.0
21.9
20.5
23.3
vs Stronger (10)
11.6
11.0
12.5
4.5
3.5
6.0
23.8
23.7
24.0
vs Similar (39)
10.5
10.3
10.7
4.4
3.9
5.0
21.4
19.6
23.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
62%
62%
64%
66%
58%
75%
51%
38%
65%
% under line
38%
38%
36%
34%
42%
25%
49%
62%
35%
This opponent (Castellón) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.8
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.1
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.5
Almeria
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Eldense
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.2
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
Valladolid
9.1
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.7
Burgos
8.5
Las Palmas
8.1
Celta de Vigo II
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Valladolid
5.7
Celta de Vigo II
5.7
Cordoba
5.6
Burgos
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Leganes
5.0
Tenerife
4.8
Sabadell
4.7
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.5
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Oviedo
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cordoba
29.9
Real Sociedad II
28.8
Valladolid
28.6
Celta de Vigo II
28.3
Castellón
28.1
AD Ceuta FC
27.6
Las Palmas
27.6
FC Andorra
27.6
Sabadell
27.6
Granada CF
27.4
Tenerife
27.1
Almeria
26.6
Burgos
26.5
Leganes
26.0
Cadiz
25.6
Eibar
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.6
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.5%
@ 1.59-5.7%
Under 9.5
47.5%
@ 2.21+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.63
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.56
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
Unibet
2.08
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
79.5%
Under 3.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.0%
Under 21.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Castellón or Draw
73.4%
Avg Implied 82.4% · @ 1.13
Edge
-9.0%
46%
27%
27%
covers Castellón + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Castellón or Albacete
72.7%
Avg Implied 77.9% · @ 1.20
Edge
-5.2%
46%
27%
27%
covers Castellón + Albacete
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Draw or Albacete
53.8%
Avg Implied 39.7% · @ 2.35
Edge
+14.2%
46%
27%
27%
covers Draw + Albacete
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Unibet
2.38
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Castellón over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
@ 1.10-4.9%
Under
20.5%
@ 5.96+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Under
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Castellón over/under 1.5
Over
47.1%
@ 1.55-12.8%
Under
52.9%
@ 2.32+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
BetVictor
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.40
1xBet
2.39
Marathonbet
2.39
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Castellón over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
@ 2.72-12.9%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.41+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Castellón over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
@ 5.35-9.6%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.12+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.10
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Albacete over/under 0.5
Over
68.5%
@ 1.49+6.3%
Under
31.5%
@ 2.45-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.56
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
10Bet
2.45
Albacete over/under 1.5
Over
32.1%
@ 3.45+5.1%
Under
67.9%
@ 1.28-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.54
10Bet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Albacete over/under 2.5
Over
11.1%
@ 8.92+0.6%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.04-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.70
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Albacete over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
@ 20.75-1.6%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Castellón, so a minus line means Castellón give that many goals of a start and Albacete receive them. At -1, Castellón must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Castellón win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Castellón)
Castellón -2
10.0%
@ 4.38-10.3%
Draw -2
14.4%
@ 4.45-5.6%
Albacete +2
75.6%
@ 1.49+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.00
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Away
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
Handicap -1 (Castellón)
Castellón -1
24.4%
@ 2.40-12.9%
Draw -1
21.8%
@ 3.57-3.3%
Albacete +1
53.8%
@ 2.38+16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.34
Unibet
2.23
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Away
Unibet
2.45
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Marathonbet
2.38
Betfair
2.30
Handicap +1 (Castellón)
Castellón +1
73.4%
@ 1.13-5.1%
Draw +1
15.5%
@ 6.49+1.9%
Albacete -1
11.0%
@ 11.32+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
11.50
Marathonbet
6.80
Handicap +2 (Castellón)
Castellón +2
89.0%
@ 1.03-2.5%
Draw +2
7.6%
@ 16.00+1.7%
Albacete -2
3.4%
@ 35.00+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Castellón
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.43
0.93
0.40
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.36
1.08
0.23
0.80
0.47
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Albacete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Albacete
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.71
0.71
0.38
0.46
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.57
0.40
0.60
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.61
0.83
0.75
0.27
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Castellón) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.3%
@ 1.30-4.5%
Under 0.5
32.7%
@ 3.30+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.9%
@ 2.39-6.0%
Under 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.52+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
10Bet
2.40
William Hil
2.40
Under
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 5.54-4.9%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.12+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Castellón over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.1%
@ 1.57-8.1%
Under
48.9%
@ 2.28+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Unibet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Unibet
2.32
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Castellón over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.5%
@ 3.77-10.0%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.23+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.74
1xBet
3.74
Under
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Castellón over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.1%
@ 9.38-5.9%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Albacete over/under 0.5 HT
Over
32.5%
@ 2.61-2.9%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.43+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.77
Unibet
2.63
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.60
Marathonbet
2.53
Under
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Albacete over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.1%
@ 9.14-2.0%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
9.50
1xBet
9.40
Marathonbet
9.40
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Albacete over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Castellón
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.93
0.53
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.79
0.79
1.00
0.62
0.60
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Albacete) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Albacete
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
0.88
0.76
0.62
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
0.86
1.40
1.00
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.52
0.67
0.67
0.45
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Castellón) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.3%
@ 1.17-2.2%
Under 0.5
22.7%
@ 4.53+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.65
Bet365
4.50
William Hil
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.1%
@ 1.85-5.4%
Under 1.5
54.9%
@ 1.88+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Under
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Unibet
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.7%
@ 3.57-6.4%
Under 2.5
80.3%
@ 1.26+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Under
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Castellón over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.3%
@ 1.39-6.4%
Under
39.7%
@ 2.78+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Under
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.60
Castellón over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.8%
@ 2.79-10.5%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.39+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
10Bet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.68
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.33
Castellón over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.5%
@ 6.83-7.1%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.07+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.10
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
Albacete over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.0%
@ 2.10+2.0%
Under
54.0%
@ 1.66-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.59
Albacete over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.9%
@ 6.71-0.9%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.60
Marathonbet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Albacete over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
@ 19.00-2.8%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.0%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.9%
Under 5.5
94.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
BetVictor
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+5.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+7.1%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.12
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+9.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+2.0%
Over 2.5 cards
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-2.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
88.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
-0.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Betfair
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.10
+4.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.1%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
+0.9%
Under 4.5
85.7%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+6.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.23
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
-
+10.0%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.26
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
+6.4%
Over 3.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
-4.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
78.7%
1.41
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+12.9%
Over 21.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-2.2%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
1.39
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.33
-
+10.5%
Over 1.5
77.1%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
-1.6%
Away +2 handicap
75.6%
1.49
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betfair
1.44
+15.9%
Home or Draw
73.4%
1.13
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
10Bet
1.14
-9.0%
Home +1 handicap
73.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-5.1%
Home or Away
72.7%
1.20
William Hil
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-5.2%
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
1.47
Pinnacle
1.54
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
+8.8%
Under 3.5
70.5%
1.47
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
+7.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Castellón
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ousmane Camara33%
Pablo Santiago33%
Jeremy Mellot0%
Alberto Jiménez0%
Raúl Sánchez0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Romain Matthys0%
Álvaro Martín0%
Antonio Gala0%
Diego Barri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raúl Sánchez33%
Juanjo Nieto33%
Álvaro Martín33%
Ousmane Camara33%
Diego Barri33%
Jeremy Mellot0%
Alberto Jiménez0%
Romain Matthys0%
Pablo Santiago0%
Antonio Gala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jeremy Mellot0%
Alberto Jiménez0%
Raúl Sánchez0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Romain Matthys0%
Álvaro Martín0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Pablo Santiago0%
Antonio Gala0%
Diego Barri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ousmane Camara67%
Jeremy Mellot0%
Alberto Jiménez0%
Raúl Sánchez0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Romain Matthys0%
Álvaro Martín0%
Pablo Santiago0%
Antonio Gala0%
Diego Barri0%
Albacete
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Bernabeu33%
Carlos Neva0%
Fran Gámez0%
Diego Mariño0%
José Corpas0%
Lluís López0%
Mario Soberón0%
Sergio Ortuño0%
Pepe Sánchez0%
Tomás Inglés0%
Alex Rubio0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alex Rubio67%
Lluís López33%
Mario Soberón33%
Sergio Ortuño33%
Carlos Neva0%
Fran Gámez0%
Diego Mariño0%
José Corpas0%
Pepe Sánchez0%
Tomás Inglés0%
Daniel Bernabeu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Carlos Neva0%
Fran Gámez0%
Diego Mariño0%
José Corpas0%
Lluís López0%
Mario Soberón0%
Sergio Ortuño0%
Pepe Sánchez0%
Tomás Inglés0%
Alex Rubio0%
Daniel Bernabeu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
José Corpas67%
Carlos Neva0%
Fran Gámez0%
Diego Mariño0%
Lluís López0%
Mario Soberón0%
Sergio Ortuño0%
Pepe Sánchez0%
Tomás Inglés0%
Alex Rubio0%
Daniel Bernabeu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Castellón's squad is €4m more valuable than Albacete's (€21m vs €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Castellón's attack is €2m more valuable than Albacete's (€11m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Castellón's midfield is €1m less valuable than Albacete's (€3m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Castellón's defence is €3m more valuable than Albacete's (€8m vs €5m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Granada CF
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Almeria
Cadiz
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
AD Ceuta FC