PythiaFootballBETA
In the Spain: Segunda División match between Castellón and Almeria, recent form suggests Castellón is coming off a win, while Almeria is coming off a defeat. However, the attacking and defensive numbers indicate a high-scoring match, with Castellón averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1 goal conceded at home, and Almeria averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded away against similar opponents.
The model predicts a 49% chance of a home win, 22% chance of a draw, and 28% chance of an away win, with the most likely match result being a home win. The expected total number of goals is 3.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 8.8%.
Castellón's home scoring and conceding numbers are strong, while Almeria's away scoring and conceding numbers are relatively weak against similar opponents. The model's selections include Over 1.5 (89.9%), Over 21.5 fouls (85.3%), Over 3.5 cards (85.3%), Over 2.5 (72.8%), and BTTS Yes (71.8%). The home win percentage is 49%, the draw percentage is 22%, and the away win percentage is 28%.
In a stunning turn of events, Castellón's home game against Almeria ended in a 1-1 draw, extending their win streak. The win extends their run of form, with Castellón coming off a win and Almeria coming off a defeat. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with the probability of a home win at 49%. The model's selection was wrong. The model's selection, a home win, was the favourite. Over 1.5 goals was the model's selection, which hit, with a probability of 89.9%. Over 21.5 fouls also hit, with a probability of 85.3%. Over 3.5 cards hit, with a probability of 85.3%. Over 2.5 goals missed, with a probability of 72.8%. BTTS Yes hit, with a probability of 71.8%.
Castellón| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.20 | 2.20 | 1.13 | 1.47 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.89 | 1.14 | 2.38 | 1.00 | 1.47 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Almeria| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.73 | 1.68 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.80 | 0.80 | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
| Almeria goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
CastellónAlmeriaCastellón| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.0 | 9.6 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 27.4 | 28.0 | 26.7 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 12.7 | 6.0 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 27.0 | 26.0 | 27.5 |
| vs Similar (44) | 10.0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 27.4 | 28.0 | 26.7 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 6.7 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 28.0 | 29.0 | 26.0 |
| % over line | 50% | 52% | 48% | 88% | 96% | 80% | 94% | 92% | 96% |
| % under line | 50% | 48% | 52% | 12% | 4% | 20% | 6% | 8% | 4% |
Almeria| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 26.7 | 26.7 | 26.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (34) | 9.0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 27.7 | 28.8 | 26.7 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 10.8 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 24.4 | 22.9 | 26.4 |
| % over line | 54% | 58% | 50% | 78% | 81% | 75% | 86% | 85% | 88% |
| % under line | 46% | 42% | 50% | 22% | 19% | 25% | 14% | 15% | 12% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 89.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 85.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 72.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| BTTS Yes | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/25 | H | 4-1 | |
| 16/09/24 | A | 2-5 | |
| 30/01/21 | A | 3-1 | |
| 28/10/20 | H | 1-2 |
Castellón| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 15/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 02/04/26 | H | 2-0 |
Almeria| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/04/26 | A | 2-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Racing Santander | 42 | 82 | 60% | 2.0 | 90 | 61 | +29 | 3.6 | 86% | 71% | 55% | 10.4 | 62% | 6.5 | 88% | 27.4 | 86% | 82 | 42 | 17 | 24 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 2 |  Malaga | 46 | 81 | 50% | 1.8 | 79 | 54 | +25 | 2.9 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 8.9 | 46% | 5.4 | 72% | 24.9 | 70% | 35 | 24 | 4 | 7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 3 | Almeria | 46 | 79 | 50% | 1.7 | 86 | 68 | +18 | 3.3 | 83% | 70% | 41% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.7 | 80% | 26.8 | 89% | 69 | 37 | 22 | 9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 4 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 77 | 52% | 1.8 | 65 | 44 | +21 | 2.6 | 83% | 50% | 21% | 9.3 | 43% | 5.3 | 78% | 24.2 | 74% | 58 | 43 | 4 | 11 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 5 |  Las Palmas | 44 | 74 | 45% | 1.7 | 58 | 42 | +16 | 2.3 | 70% | 43% | 18% | 8.1 | 34% | 4.5 | 61% | 27.5 | 89% | 53 | 19 | 9 | 25 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 6 | Castellón | 44 | 73 | 45% | 1.7 | 73 | 55 | +18 | 2.9 | 77% | 50% | 41% | 9.9 | 50% | 6.1 | 88% | 28.4 | 95% | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 7 |  Burgos | 42 | 72 | 48% | 1.7 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 1.9 | 55% | 31% | 14% | 8.4 | 33% | 5.9 | 85% | 27.5 | 86% | 21 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 46% |
| 8 |  Eibar | 42 | 67 | 45% | 1.6 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 2.2 | 62% | 48% | 17% | 9.3 | 43% | 5.5 | 83% | 25.5 | 79% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 9 |  Sporting Gijon | 42 | 61 | 43% | 1.5 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 2.7 | 67% | 55% | 31% | 9.9 | 55% | 5.3 | 76% | 22.2 | 55% | 33 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 10 |  Cordoba | 42 | 61 | 40% | 1.5 | 57 | 61 | -4 | 2.8 | 81% | 60% | 33% | 10.7 | 62% | 5.8 | 88% | 30.0 | 88% | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 11 |  AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 61 | 40% | 1.5 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 2.7 | 74% | 55% | 26% | 8.9 | 43% | 5.3 | 83% | 27.6 | 93% | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 12 |  Albacete | 42 | 59 | 38% | 1.4 | 56 | 55 | +1 | 2.6 | 69% | 50% | 29% | 10.6 | 62% | 4.6 | 71% | 22.1 | 48% | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 13 |  FC Andorra | 42 | 58 | 38% | 1.4 | 62 | 54 | +8 | 2.8 | 74% | 52% | 29% | 9.1 | 45% | 5.7 | 90% | 28.1 | 81% | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 14 |  Granada CF | 42 | 48 | 29% | 1.1 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 2.5 | 64% | 43% | 29% | 9.2 | 40% | 5.7 | 80% | 27.6 | 88% | 31 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 15 |  Real Sociedad II | 42 | 47 | 29% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.7 | 69% | 45% | 26% | 9.2 | 43% | 6.1 | 81% | 29.1 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 16 |  Leganes | 42 | 46 | 26% | 1.1 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 2.2 | 69% | 45% | 14% | 9.5 | 48% | 5.4 | 81% | 27.0 | 88% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 17 |  Valladolid | 42 | 46 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 2.4 | 62% | 43% | 24% | 8.8 | 40% | 5.9 | 79% | 28.9 | 86% | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 18 |  Cadiz | 42 | 43 | 26% | 1.0 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 21% | 9.6 | 48% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.0 | 86% | 21 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Mirandes | 42 | 40 | 24% | 1.0 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 2.8 | 76% | 57% | 31% | 9.3 | 45% | 5.9 | 85% | 27.7 | 81% | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 20 |  Huesca | 42 | 38 | 21% | 0.9 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 2.5 | 69% | 43% | 19% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.1 | 83% | 25.5 | 83% | 16 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 21 |  Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 37 | 21% | 0.9 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.5 | 69% | 50% | 24% | 8.7 | 38% | 5.0 | 64% | 25.0 | 79% | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 22 |  Zaragoza | 42 | 36 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 19% | 10.2 | 60% | 6.5 | 90% | 28.3 | 86% | 18 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |