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Cəbrayıl vs Baku Sportinq Result & Analysis

Date: 01/05/2025
Time: 09:00
Final 2-1
Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Vs
45%
28%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cəbrayıl win✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D01L23L04L02L00D12L20W02LA·MIN13/02H·KAR19/02A·BAK27/02H·QAB07/03H·DIF13/03A·IMI28/03H·QAR03/04A·MOI10/04H·MIN17/04A·KAR25/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.791.421.091.180.541.62
vs Stronger (24)0.791.421.091.180.541.62
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-632W01L10W10W22D11D05L16L01L04LH·QAR14/02H·MIN20/02H·CƏB27/02A·DIF06/03H·IMI12/03A·KAR27/03H·QAB04/04A·ZAQ10/04H·QAR17/04A·MIN24/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.791.790.551.551.002.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.861.860.712.001.001.71
vs Weaker (10)0.701.700.250.751.002.33
Clean sheet %21% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.9%
2-1 ✓
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
Cəbrayıl goals ↓
Baku Sportinq goals →
01234
08.6%6.9%4.5%1.6%0.4%
19.9%13%6.7%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.2%5.1%1.8%0.5%
34.2%4.6%2.5%0.9%0.3%
41.6%1.7%1.0%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cəbrayıl goals (down), columns = Baku Sportinq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qabala
2.48
Imisli FK
1.93
Karvan
1.74
Mingəçevir
1.30
Zaqatala
1.26
MOIK
1.11
Baku Sportinq
1.04
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.89
Cəbrayıl is 0.04 points worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.04).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qabala
2.07
Karvan
1.96
Imisli FK
1.59
Difai Ağsu
1.33
Zaqatala
1.30
Mingəçevir
1.11
MOIK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Cəbrayıl
0.85
Baku Sportinq
0.78
Cəbrayıl is 0.07 goals better than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 0.78).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qabala
0.30
Imisli FK
0.74
Cəbrayıl
1.26
Zaqatala
1.26
Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.37
Baku Sportinq
1.59
MOIK
1.59
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.63
Difai Ağsu
1.93
Cəbrayıl is 0.33 goals better than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.59).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D01L11D02L01L00D00D10W01LA·MIN13/02H·KAR19/02A·BAK27/02H·QAB07/03H·DIF13/03A·IMI28/03H·QAR03/04A·MOI10/04H·MIN17/04A·KAR25/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.670.550.550.150.77
vs Stronger (24)0.330.670.550.550.150.77
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %46% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W10W11D00D02L12L00D02LH·QAR14/02H·MIN20/02H·CƏB27/02A·DIF06/03H·IMI12/03A·KAR27/03H·QAB04/04A·ZAQ10/04H·QAR17/04A·MIN24/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.780.180.730.420.83
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.150.920.141.000.170.83
vs Weaker (10)0.500.600.250.250.670.83
Clean sheet %48% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D12L02L01L00D12L10W01LA·MIN13/02H·KAR19/02A·BAK27/02H·QAB07/03H·DIF13/03A·IMI28/03H·QAR03/04A·MOI10/04H·MIN17/04A·KAR25/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.460.750.550.640.380.85
vs Stronger (24)0.460.750.550.640.380.85
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W01L00D00D11D11D03L04L01L02LH·QAR14/02H·MIN20/02H·CƏB27/02A·DIF06/03H·IMI12/03A·KAR27/03H·QAB04/04A·ZAQ10/04H·QAR17/04A·MIN24/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.040.360.820.501.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (13)0.621.000.571.000.671.00
vs Weaker (10)0.201.100.000.500.331.50
Clean sheet %35% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
QAB (18)
€5m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
CƏB wins
0
Draws
2
BS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cəbrayıl vs Baku Sportinq · H/A from CƏB
DateH/AGameScore
27/02/25ABaku Sportinq Vs CƏB1-0
29/11/24HCƏB Vs Baku Sportinq1-2

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/25AKarvan Vs CƏB2-0
17/04/25HCƏB Vs Mingəçevir2-0
10/04/25AMOIK Vs CƏB2-1
03/04/25HCƏB Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-0
28/03/25AImisli FK Vs CƏB2-0
13/03/25HCƏB Vs Difai Ağsu0-4
07/03/25HCƏB Vs Qabala2-3
27/02/25ABaku Sportinq Vs CƏB1-0
19/02/25HCƏB Vs Karvan1-1
13/02/25AMingəçevir Vs CƏB0-0

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/25AMingəçevir Vs BS4-0
17/04/25HBS Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-1
10/04/25AZaqatala Vs BS6-1
04/04/25HBS Vs Qabala0-5
27/03/25AKarvan Vs BS1-1
12/03/25HBS Vs Imisli FK2-2
06/03/25ADifai Ağsu Vs BS0-1
27/02/25HBS Vs Cəbrayıl1-0
20/02/25HBS Vs Mingəçevir0-1
14/02/25HBS Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL0.83
HomeDLLDW1.09
AwayDLLLL0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %21%27%15%
AVG goals2.212.272.15
Over 1.5 %71%73%69%
Over 2.5 %42%45%38%
Over 3.5 %12%18%8%
Scored0.791.090.54
Conceded1.421.181.62
BTTS33%27%38%
Clean Sheet33%45%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.08
HomeLWDLL0.82
AwayDWDLL1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%18%38%
AVG goals2.582.093.00
Over 1.5 %67%55%77%
Over 2.5 %46%27%62%
Over 3.5 %33%27%38%
Scored0.790.551.00
Conceded1.791.552.00
BTTS38%18%54%
Clean Sheet21%27%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QabalaQabala2767
78%
2.5
568+48
2.4
70%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1132.10.3
-
2Imisli FKImisli FK2752
56%
1.9
4320+23
2.3
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.60.7
-
3KarvanKarvan2747
48%
1.7
5337+16
3.3
93%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.4
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir2735
33%
1.3
3036-6
2.4
67%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala2734
30%
1.3
3534+1
2.6
67%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6MOIKMOIK2730
30%
1.1
2743-16
2.6
63%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
7Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2728
26%
1.0
2143-22
2.4
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2727
26%
1.0
2334-11
2.1
70%
41%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2726
26%
1.0
3652-16
3.3
70%
59%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2724
19%
0.9
2744-17
2.6
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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