The model sees Baku Sportinq as the clear favourite, assigning a 64% chance of victory. This edge stems from their strong away form against weaker opponents, scoring 1.71 goals and conceding just one, while Cəbrayıl struggles at home against stronger teams, averaging 2.0 goals for and 1.67 against. The predicted outcome is an away win, with the most likely scoreline 1-2 at 9.7%. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, and the most probable total is three goals, a 22% chance. Home win probability sits at 16%, draw at 20%, and away win at 64%. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Away +2 handicap (94.1%), Under 6.5 (93.9%), Away over 0.5 goals (90.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.0%), Over 1.5 (86.7%) and Under 5.5 (86.4%). Cəbrayıl’s recent form of four straight losses and a 2-3 defeat to Şimal underlines their vulnerability, whereas Baku Sportinq’s draw against Şahdağ and a 1-1 scoreline suggest resilience on the road.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cəbrayıl win
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq win
62.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cəbrayıl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Stronger (30)
1.40
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.80
2.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.90
1.53
0.93
1.27
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.87
1.14
1.00
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.93
1.88
0.88
1.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.9%
Under 1.5
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
65.6%
Under 2.5
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.5%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
7.3%
0-1
6.8%
0-3
6.6%
2-2
5.4%
2-1
4.8%
Cəbrayıl goals ↓
Baku Sportinq goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
6.8%
8.7%
6.6%
3.7%
1
2.9%
9.5%
9.7%
7.3%
4.2%
2
2.1%
4.8%
5.4%
4.1%
2.3%
3
0.8%
1.8%
2.0%
1.5%
0.9%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cəbrayıl goals (down), columns = Baku Sportinq goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Cəbrayıl is 0.93 points worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.81).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Cəbrayıl and Baku Sportinq are level in goals scored per game (both 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Cəbrayıl is 1.22 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cəbrayıl or Draw
37.7%
Avg Implied -
17%
21%
62%
covers Cəbrayıl + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl or Baku Sportinq
79.0%
Avg Implied -
17%
21%
62%
covers Cəbrayıl + Baku Sportinq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Baku Sportinq
83.3%
Avg Implied -
17%
21%
62%
covers Draw + Baku Sportinq
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5
Over
67.3%
Under
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5
Over
89.6%
Under
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5
Over
39.4%
Under
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 3.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cəbrayıl, so a minus line means Cəbrayıl give that many goals of a start and Baku Sportinq receive them. At -1, Cəbrayıl must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cəbrayıl win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl -2
1.9%
Draw -2
4.6%
Baku Sportinq +2
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl -1
6.5%
Draw -1
10.3%
Baku Sportinq +1
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl +1
37.7%
Draw +1
21.7%
Baku Sportinq -1
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl +2
59.4%
Draw +2
18.8%
Baku Sportinq -2
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cəbrayıl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (30)
0.63
0.87
0.93
0.73
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.33
0.57
0.57
0.62
0.12
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.25
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cəbrayıl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.33
vs Stronger (30)
0.77
1.13
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Baku Sportinq
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.73
0.53
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.53
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.47
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Şahdağ
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Mingəçevir
Şimal
Zaqatala
MOIK