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Cəbrayıl vs MOIK Prediction & Stats

Date: 25/11/2026
Time: 15:00
Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Vs
23%
23%
54%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The match is expected to be a high-scoring affair, with an average of 3.5 goals and a most likely total of three. The model favours an away win, with a 56% chance for MOIK, 22% for a draw and 22% for a Cəbrayıl victory. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 9.6% probability. Cəbrayıl, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages two goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while MOIK, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded. Recent form shows Cəbrayıl struggling after four straight losses, whereas MOIK comes off a win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (97.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Under 6.5 (93.6%), Away +2 handicap (90.7%), Away over 0.5 goals (88.6%), Over 1.5 (87.1%), Under 5.5 (86.0%) and Home under 2.5 goals (85.4%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cəbrayıl win
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
MOIK win
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D12L32W00D21W06L23L01L23L21WA·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04A·SƏB30/04H·BAK07/05A·SAF15/05H·ŞIM21/05A·ŞIM04/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.002.001.670.872.33
vs Stronger (30)1.432.002.001.670.872.33
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D21W13L21W03L01L11D13L40W01LA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.571.291.001.062.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.601.870.331.000.782.44
vs Weaker (15)1.731.272.001.001.431.57
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%513%6+
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.5%
Under 1.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
65.4%
No
34.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
6.1%
0-1
5.9%
0-3
5.0%
Cəbrayıl goals ↓
MOIK goals →
01234
04.2%5.9%7.1%5.0%2.6%
13.4%10%9.5%6.6%3.5%
22.9%6.1%6.3%4.4%2.3%
31.3%2.7%2.8%2.0%1.0%
40.4%0.9%0.9%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cəbrayıl goals (down), columns = MOIK goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Cəbrayıl is 0.33 points worse than MOIK in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Cəbrayıl is 0.26 goals better than MOIK in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.22).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Cəbrayıl is 0.59 goals worse than MOIK in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 1.48).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cəbrayıl or Draw
46.1%
Avg Implied -
23%
23%
54%
covers Cəbrayıl + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl or MOIK
77.1%
Avg Implied -
23%
23%
54%
covers Cəbrayıl + MOIK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or MOIK
76.7%
Avg Implied -
23%
23%
54%
covers Draw + MOIK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5
Over
87.6%
Under
12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5
Over
34.7%
Under
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 3.5
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Cəbrayıl, so a minus line means Cəbrayıl give that many goals of a start and MOIK receive them. At -1, Cəbrayıl must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cəbrayıl win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl -2
3.4%
Draw -2
6.7%
MOIK +2
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl -1
10.2%
Draw -1
13.1%
MOIK +1
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl +1
46.1%
Draw +1
21.0%
MOIK -1
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl +2
67.1%
Draw +2
16.5%
MOIK -2
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D10W00D20W03L11D01L10W11DA·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04A·SƏB30/04H·BAK07/05A·SAF15/05H·ŞIM21/05A·ŞIM04/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.900.930.730.401.07
vs Stronger (30)0.670.900.930.730.401.07
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D02L21W00D00D01L03L20W01LA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.700.640.360.381.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.270.600.170.170.330.89
vs Weaker (15)0.730.801.000.500.431.14
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L22D00D01L03L12L00D13L10WA·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04A·SƏB30/04H·BAK07/05A·SAF15/05H·ŞIM21/05A·ŞIM04/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.101.070.930.471.27
vs Stronger (30)0.771.101.070.930.471.27
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (MOIK) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MOIKMOIK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W11D00D03L01L10W10W20W00DA·SƏB18/03H·CƏB02/04A·BAK08/04H·ZAQ15/04A·SAF22/04H·ŞAH29/04A·ŞIM06/05A·MIN15/05H·DIF21/05H·ŞAH03/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.870.640.640.691.06
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.331.270.170.830.441.56
vs Weaker (15)1.000.471.000.501.000.43
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
MOIK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.597.6%-------
Home under 3.5 goals95.3%-------
Under 6.594.1%-------
Away +2 handicap89.8%-------
Away over 0.5 goals87.6%-------
Under 5.586.8%-------
Over 1.586.5%-------
Home under 2.5 goals84.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals84.1%-------
Home or Away77.1%-------
Draw or Away76.7%-------
Away +1 handicap76.7%-------
Under 4.574.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals73.7%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
0
CƏB wins
1
Draws
5
MOI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cəbrayıl vs MOIK · H/A from CƏB
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/26AMOIK Vs CƏB2-1
05/02/26HCƏB Vs MOIK2-2
16/10/25AMOIK Vs CƏB4-1
10/04/25AMOIK Vs CƏB2-1
06/02/25AMOIK Vs CƏB2-1
18/10/24HCƏB Vs MOIK0-1

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/26AŞimal Vs CƏB1-2
21/05/26HCƏB Vs Şimal2-3
15/05/26ASafa Baku Vs CƏB1-0
07/05/26HCƏB Vs Baku Sportinq2-3
30/04/26ASəbail Vs CƏB6-0
22/04/26HCƏB Vs Mingəçevir2-1
15/04/26AŞahdağ Vs CƏB0-0
08/04/26HCƏB Vs Zaqatala3-2
02/04/26AMOIK Vs CƏB2-1
19/03/26ADifai Ağsu Vs CƏB1-1

MOIKMOIK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HMOI Vs Şahdağ0-1
21/05/26HMOI Vs Difai Ağsu4-0
15/05/26AMingəçevir Vs MOI3-1
06/05/26AŞimal Vs MOI1-1
29/04/26HMOI Vs Şahdağ0-1
22/04/26ASafa Baku Vs MOI3-0
15/04/26HMOI Vs Zaqatala2-1
08/04/26ABaku Sportinq Vs MOI3-1
02/04/26HMOI Vs Cəbrayıl2-1
18/03/26ASəbail Vs MOI2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW0.88
HomeWWWLL1.36
AwayLDLLW0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%41%11%
AVG goals2.983.362.68
Over 1.5 %80%82%79%
Over 2.5 %58%73%46%
Over 3.5 %34%50%21%
Scored1.161.730.71
Conceded1.821.641.96
BTTS52%59%46%
Clean Sheet20%27%14%
Corners---
Cards---
MOIK
MOIK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.18
HomeWWLWL1.60
AwayDLLDL0.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%48%16%
AVG goals2.702.722.68
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %32%32%32%
Scored1.141.400.88
Conceded1.561.321.80
BTTS54%52%56%
Clean Sheet18%24%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1KarvanKarvan13
100%
3.0
30+3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.00.0
-
2CəbrayılCəbrayıl13
100%
3.0
21+1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3ŞahdağŞahdağ13
100%
3.0
10+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.0
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir11
0%
1.0
22+0
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala11
0%
1.0
22+0
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
6SəbailSəbail11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.0
-
7Xankəndi FKXankəndi FK11
0%
1.0
11+0
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
8ŞimalŞimal10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
9MOIKMOIK10
0%
0.0
01-1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
10Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq10
0%
0.0
03-3
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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