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Cəbrayıl vs Şimal Result & Analysis

Date: 21/05/2026
Time: 13:00
Final 2-3
Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Vs
63%
19%
18%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Şimal
Şimal
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Cabrail is the clear favourite to win this match, and the Pythia model rates them highly due to their strong home form against weaker opponents. In their last encounter, Cabrail suffered a 2-3 defeat at the hands of Simal, but this was after four consecutive losses. Meanwhile, Simal is on a two-game winning streak, but their away form is a concern, conceding an average of four goals per match.

The model predicts a 63% chance of a home win, a 19% chance of a draw, and an 18% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 2-1, with a probability of 9%.

Cabrail's home form is impressive, scoring an average of 2.14 goals and conceding 1.43. Simal, on the other hand, struggles away from home, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 4. The model's selections include Over 1.5 (90.4%), Over 2.5 (74.0%), and a home win (63.0%).

Results analysis

The away team, Şimal, pulled off a stunning upset, defeating the home team, Çaykur Rizespor, 2-3. This win extends their run, which had seen them bounce back from four straight defeats. The model's selection, a Home win, was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite failed to come through. The model's probability for a Home win was 63%. The model's call was wrong.

The model's selection, Home win, had a probability of 63%. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's selection, Home win, MISSED. The model's selection, Home win, had a probability of 63%. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong.

The model's selection, Over 1.5, had a probability of 90.4% and HIT. The model's selection, Over 2.5, had a probability of 74.0% and HIT.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cəbrayıl win✗ Miss
63.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Şimal win✓ Hit
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-614L10W11D12L32W00D21W06L23L01LH·SƏB06/03H·ZAQ13/03A·DIF19/03A·MOI02/04H·ZAQ08/04A·ŞAH15/04H·MIN22/04A·SƏB30/04H·BAK07/05A·SAF15/05
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.932.141.430.812.38
vs Stronger (30)1.431.932.141.430.812.38
vs Similar (0)------
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Şimal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ŞimalŞimal

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-443W02L00D01L03L04L10W00D11D01LA·ZAQ05/03H·SAF11/03H·ZAQ19/03A·ŞAH03/04H·MIN09/04A·SƏB16/04H·BAK23/04A·SAF29/04H·MOI06/05H·DIF14/05
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.772.270.501.641.083.00
vs Stronger (12)0.501.580.501.000.502.17
vs Similar (3)0.672.670.502.501.003.00
vs Weaker (11)1.092.910.502.001.804.00
Clean sheet %15% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%15%20%3%07%116%220%320%415%519%6+
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.4%
Under 1.5
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.0%
Under 2.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.8%
Under 3.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.2%
No
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.0%
1-1
7.8%
3-1
7.6%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.8%
3-2
5.0%
4-1
4.8%
Cəbrayıl goals ↓
Şimal goals →
01234
02.8%2.1%1.8%0.8%0.3%
14.7%7.8%4.7%2.1%0.7%
26.8%9.0%5.9%2.6%0.9%
35.8%7.6%5.0%2.2%0.7%
43.7%4.8%3.2%1.4%0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cəbrayıl goals (down), columns = Şimal goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Cəbrayıl is 0.07 points better than Şimal in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 0.82).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Zaqatala
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Cəbrayıl is 0.59 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Cəbrayıl is 0.14 goals better than Şimal in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 2.21).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.590.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.574.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (25)
€4m
SƏB (30)
€0m
MIN (20)
€0m
ZAQ (23)
€0m
CƏB (23)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Cəbrayıl vs Şimal · H/A from CƏB
DateH/AGameScore
24/02/26AŞimal Vs CƏB3-2
20/11/25HCƏB Vs Şimal7-0

CəbrayılCəbrayıl

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/26ASafa Baku Vs CƏB1-0
07/05/26HCƏB Vs Baku Sportinq2-3
30/04/26ASəbail Vs CƏB6-0
22/04/26HCƏB Vs Mingəçevir2-1
15/04/26AŞahdağ Vs CƏB0-0
08/04/26HCƏB Vs Zaqatala3-2
02/04/26AMOIK Vs CƏB2-1
19/03/26ADifai Ağsu Vs CƏB1-1
13/03/26HCƏB Vs Zaqatala1-0
06/03/26HCƏB Vs Səbail1-4

ŞimalŞimal

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/05/26HŞIM Vs Difai Ağsu0-1
06/05/26HŞIM Vs MOIK1-1
29/04/26ASafa Baku Vs ŞIM0-0
23/04/26HŞIM Vs Baku Sportinq1-0
16/04/26ASəbail Vs ŞIM4-0
09/04/26HŞIM Vs Mingəçevir0-3
03/04/26AŞahdağ Vs ŞIM1-0
19/03/26HŞIM Vs Zaqatala0-0
11/03/26HŞIM Vs Safa Baku0-2
05/03/26AZaqatala Vs ŞIM3-4

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Cəbrayıl
Cəbrayıl
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL0.94
HomeLWWWL1.57
AwayDLDLL0.41
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%48%7%
AVG goals2.903.172.67
Over 1.5 %78%78%78%
Over 2.5 %56%70%44%
Over 3.5 %32%43%22%
Scored1.201.830.67
Conceded1.701.352.00
BTTS48%52%44%
Clean Sheet24%35%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Şimal
Şimal
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL0.65
HomeDLWDL0.71
AwayLWLLD0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %15%14%17%
AVG goals3.042.144.08
Over 1.5 %69%57%83%
Over 2.5 %50%36%67%
Over 3.5 %42%21%67%
Scored0.770.501.08
Conceded2.271.643.00
BTTS38%29%50%
Clean Sheet15%21%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 10. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
0001.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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