Cəbrayıl’s recent form has been a roller-coaster, but their home attack has averaged 2.0 goals per game against stronger opposition, while conceding 1.67. Zaqatala, still finding rhythm on the road, scores only 0.67 on average against weaker opponents and also concedes 1.67. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.4 goals and the most likely total of 3, a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.4% probability, and the model’s pick is a home win. Home win odds sit at 50%, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 26%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.8%), Under 6.5 (94.5%), Home +2 handicap (88.3%), Under 5.5 (87.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.1%) and Over 1.5 (85.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cəbrayıl win
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala win
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cəbrayıl
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.87
2.33
vs Stronger (30)
1.43
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.87
2.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
1.00
1.79
0.94
1.56
vs Stronger (22)
0.95
1.50
0.92
1.83
1.00
1.10
vs Similar (4)
1.25
3.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.6%
Under 2.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.4%
No
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.1%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
6.0%
3-1
5.8%
1-0
5.3%
3-2
4.4%
Cəbrayıl goals ↓
Zaqatala goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.9%
3.7%
1.9%
0.7%
1
5.3%
10%
7.1%
3.6%
1.3%
2
6.0%
9.0%
6.8%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.8%
5.8%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
4
1.8%
2.8%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cəbrayıl goals (down), columns = Zaqatala goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Karvan
2.47
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
Xankəndi FK
1.26
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Cəbrayıl is 0.15 points worse than Zaqatala in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Karvan
2.69
Mingəçevir
2.04
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Xankəndi FK
1.37
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Cəbrayıl is 0.48 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Karvan
0.75
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Xankəndi FK
1.46
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Cəbrayıl is 0.44 goals worse than Zaqatala in terms of goals conceded per game (2.07 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cəbrayıl or Draw
70.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
30%
covers Cəbrayıl + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl or Zaqatala
76.1%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
30%
covers Cəbrayıl + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zaqatala
53.5%
Avg Implied -
47%
24%
30%
covers Draw + Zaqatala
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5
Over
85.4%
Under
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5
Over
57.2%
Under
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 3.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5
Over
44.5%
Under
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5
Over
19.3%
Under
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cəbrayıl, so a minus line means Cəbrayıl give that many goals of a start and Zaqatala receive them. At -1, Cəbrayıl must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cəbrayıl win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl -2
12.3%
Draw -2
14.3%
Zaqatala +2
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl -1
26.6%
Draw -1
19.9%
Zaqatala +1
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl +1
70.5%
Draw +1
15.4%
Zaqatala -1
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cəbrayıl)
Cəbrayıl +2
85.9%
Draw +2
8.8%
Zaqatala -2
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cəbrayıl
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.93
0.73
0.40
1.07
vs Stronger (30)
0.67
0.90
0.93
0.73
0.40
1.07
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.43
0.93
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (22)
0.32
0.64
0.25
0.92
0.40
0.30
vs Similar (4)
0.75
1.25
2.00
2.00
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cəbrayıl
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.10
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (30)
0.77
1.10
1.07
0.93
0.47
1.27
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zaqatala
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.57
0.86
0.62
1.12
vs Stronger (22)
0.64
0.86
0.67
0.92
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
1.00
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cəbrayıl) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cəbrayıl over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cəbrayıl over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (4)
€1m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
Cəbrayıl and Zaqatala have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Cəbrayıl and Zaqatala have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
Cəbrayıl and Zaqatala have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
Cəbrayıl and Zaqatala have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karvan
Şahdağ
Mingəçevir
Səbail
Xankəndi FK
Şimal
MOIK
Baku Sportinq