The contest between Celje and Koper is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. Celje’s home form shows an average of 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded against similarly strong opposition, while Koper’s away record is 1.29 scored and 1.57 conceded. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.2% chance. Home win, draw and away win probabilities sit at 41%, 30% and 29% respectively. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (91.1%), Over 21.5 fouls (82.2%), Over 2.5 cards (81.1%), Under 3.5 (77.3%), Under 11.5 corners (72.5%), Under 5.5 cards (72.5%) and Over 1.5 (71.0%). Celje’s recent run of LDDWW and a 1-4 loss to Brinje-Grosuplje contrast with Koper’s WWDLD and a 1-0 win over Aluminij, adding intrigue to a match where the home side edges out the visitors in the model’s eye.
Results analysis
Celje’s recent form, still recovering from a defeat, met the Pythia model’s expectation as the home side secured a 2-0 victory over Koper, extending their run with a win. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, with a 41% probability, proved correct. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. Every suggested selection was settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 91.1%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 82.2%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 81.1%, Under 3.5 hit at 77.3%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 72.5%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 72.5%, and Over 1.5 hit at 71.0%. The model’s predictions largely came through, underscoring its reliability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celje win✓ Hit
41.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.97
1.50
0.94
1.50
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.60
1.30
2.20
1.80
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.45
0.80
1.18
0.55
1.78
1.11
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.07
1.27
1.00
1.33
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.88
1.19
0.56
0.89
1.29
1.57
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
0.93
2.33
1.17
1.38
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.0%
Under 1.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.2%
No
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.3%
2-0 ✓
7.9%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.2%
Celje goals ↓
Koper goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.3%
5.2%
1.9%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.9%
8.6%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.5%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celje goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olimpija Ljubljana
2.03
Aluminij
2.00
Celje
1.86
Maribor
1.72
Mura
1.44
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.39
Radomlje
1.22
Bravo
1.00
Gorica
0.74
Tabor Sežana
0.67
Celje is 0.47 points better than Koper in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aluminij
2.00
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.67
Celje
1.47
Mura
1.39
NK Domzale
1.39
Koper
1.28
Radomlje
0.97
Bravo
0.92
Gorica
0.87
Tabor Sežana
0.81
Celje is 0.19 goals better than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.28).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Celje
0.94
Aluminij
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.08
Koper
1.11
Bravo
1.14
NK Domzale
1.17
Maribor
1.19
Mura
1.25
Radomlje
1.47
Gorica
1.61
Tabor Sežana
1.75
Celje is 0.17 goals better than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
59%
Koper
52%
Maribor
51%
Bravo
50%
Mura
50%
Celje
49%
Tabor Sežana
47%
NK Domzale
47%
Gorica
47%
Celje is 2.5 percentage points worse than Koper in terms of average possession (49% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celje
For 5.6 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Koper
For 4.0 · Against 3.8 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 11.7 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (34)
9.8
9.7
9.9
2.6
2.5
2.8
24.8
25.5
24.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
9.7
9.7
9.7
2.5
3.2
1.8
23.2
24.0
22.3
vs Weaker (24)
9.9
9.7
10.0
2.7
2.2
3.2
25.5
26.1
24.9
% over line
43%
40%
45%
38%
35%
41%
81%
80%
82%
% under line
57%
60%
55%
62%
65%
59%
19%
20%
18%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
8.7
6.8
10.7
2.6
2.4
2.7
24.0
22.7
25.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
9.5
7.1
11.6
3.2
2.6
3.8
24.1
22.7
25.3
vs Weaker (15)
7.1
6.4
8.3
1.7
2.1
1.4
23.8
22.8
25.3
% over line
48%
33%
64%
33%
28%
39%
76%
64%
90%
% under line
52%
67%
36%
67%
72%
61%
24%
36%
10%
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
10.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.9
Celje
9.8
Gorica
9.4
Tabor Sežana
9.4
Maribor
8.7
Koper
8.7
Bravo
8.7
NK Domzale
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.0
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.9
Mura
4.5
Maribor
4.3
Celje
4.3
Koper
4.0
Bravo
4.0
Gorica
3.9
Tabor Sežana
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
28.0
Bravo
27.9
Olimpija Ljubljana
27.8
Mura
26.0
Gorica
25.5
Maribor
25.3
Celje
24.8
Koper
24.0
Tabor Sežana
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.0%
Under 9.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.6%
Under 3.5
36.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
82.2%
Under 21.5
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.50
0.44
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
0.60
0.30
0.55
0.27
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.69
0.22
0.56
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.50
1.80
1.00
0.20
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.50
0.64
0.27
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.43
1.33
0.50
0.88
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
TS (17)
€2m
Celje's squad is €6m more valuable than Koper's (€14m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
Celje's attack is €4m more valuable than Koper's (€7m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
TS (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
Celje and Koper have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
TS (8)
€1m
Celje's defence is €3m more valuable than Koper's (€6m vs €3m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →