Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Result & Analysis

The contest between Celta Vigo and Osasuna is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win. Home victory sits at 41%, a draw at 29%, and an away win at 30%. The expected total goals is 2.5, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.9% chance. Celta Vigo, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.92 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Osasuna on the road against a similar side averages 1.17 scored and 1.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1% with a 3% edge, Under 6.5 at 98.1% with a 1% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0% with a 3% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.5% with a 2% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.9% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.0% with a 4% edge, and Under 5.5 at 94.8% with a 1% edge. Both teams finished recent matches in 0-0 draws, keeping the encounter finely balanced.

The upset was immediate: Osasuna edged Celta Vigo 2-1, overturning the model’s home-win call that had a 42% probability. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result, an away victory that snapped Celta’s recent defeat streak. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.1%, and Under 5.5 at 94.8%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every pick was noted as a hit.