Celtic’s dominance at home is clear: the model rates a home win at 78%, a draw at 15% and an away win at 7%. The favourite result is a Celtic victory, reflected in the 78%home win probability and the team’s strong home form, scoring 2.62 and conceding only 0.92 goals against weaker opposition. Aberdeen, playing away against a stronger side, averages just 0.5 goals scored and concedes 3.0, making a win unlikely. The expected total is 3.5 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Celtic, with an 11.1% chance. Suggested picks include “Away under 3.5 goals” at 99.7%, “Away under 2.5 HT goals” 99.4%, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” 99.0%, “Home +2 handicap” 98.8%, “Under 7.5” 98.2% (edge 3%), “Away under 2.5 goals” 98.0% (edge 6%), “Away under 1.5 HT goals” 95.8% (edge 5%), and “Under 6.5” 95.2% (edge 5%). Celtic’s recent form, after a 1-5 loss, shows resilience, while Aberdeen’s 3-0 win over Dundee suggests they will struggle to score against Celtic’s defence.
Results analysis
Celtic’s 3-0 victory over Aberdeen extended their two-game winning run, confirming the model’s forecast that the home side would prevail. The pre-match favourite, a home win at 78%, proved correct. The model’s selections largely came through: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Home +2 handicap at 98.7%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.9%, Under 6.5 at 95.3% and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.0%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s outcome was noted. The match finished 3-0, a home win that matched the model’s expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celtic win✓ Hit
77.8%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.24
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
Dafabet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
14.8%
Avg Implied 15.1% · @ 6.21
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
6.60
Dafabet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Aberdeen win✗ Miss
7.5%
Avg Implied 9.0% · @ 10.43
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
12.01
Unibet
11.00
William Hil
11.00
Betfair
11.00
BetVictor
11.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.27
2.19
1.12
2.07
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.40
2.00
2.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.28
1.24
2.21
0.93
2.36
1.64
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.43
1.75
0.94
0.64
2.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.20
0.33
1.67
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.92
1.67
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
1.92
1.62
2.43
1.14
1.33
2.17
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.6%
@ 1.10+2.7%
Under 1.5
12.4%
@ 6.21-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Under
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Pinnacle
6.49
Superbet
6.40
Unibet
6.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.9%
@ 1.39+1.3%
Under 2.5
31.1%
@ 2.89-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Betano
2.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.5%
@ 2.01+0.3%
Under 3.5
52.5%
@ 1.79-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
SBO
2.07
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.9%
@ 1.81+0.4%
No
48.1%
@ 1.92-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.95
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
No
10Bet
2.00
BetVictor
1.95
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.9%@ 7.08+4.6%
3-0 ✓
10.1%@ 7.80+4.3%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.62+3.4%
3-1
8.0%@ 9.43+3.2%
1-0
7.3%@ 9.06+2.3%
4-0
6.9%@ 10.96+2.8%
1-1
6.9%@ 11.38+2.9%
4-1
5.5%@ 13.20+2.1%
Celtic goals ↓
Aberdeen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
1.6%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
1
7.3%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
2
11%
8.7%
3.4%
0.9%
0.2%
3
10%
8.0%
3.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
6.9%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celtic goals (down), columns = Aberdeen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Celtic is 1.11 points better than Aberdeen in terms of average points per game (2.16 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Celtic is 0.87 goals better than Aberdeen in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.05).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Celtic is 0.37 goals better than Aberdeen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Celtic is 17.5 percentage points better than Aberdeen in terms of average possession (66% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celtic
For 6.3 · Against 4.4 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aberdeen
For 5.1 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 13.0 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.7
10.8
3.6
3.9
3.4
20.8
20.3
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
10.9
8.8
13.7
3.9
5.4
2.0
22.3
24.5
19.3
vs Weaker (41)
10.7
11.2
10.3
3.6
3.5
3.6
20.6
19.4
21.7
% over line
60%
61%
59%
48%
48%
48%
31%
30%
32%
% under line
40%
39%
41%
52%
52%
52%
69%
70%
68%
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.9
9.5
4.1
4.5
3.7
25.6
26.8
24.3
vs Stronger (10)
10.5
12.4
8.6
4.7
6.6
2.8
26.3
27.6
25.0
vs Similar (22)
9.8
10.0
9.5
5.0
5.2
4.8
26.1
27.3
24.6
vs Weaker (18)
10.6
11.3
10.1
2.6
2.3
2.9
24.2
25.2
23.5
% over line
61%
74%
48%
56%
65%
46%
87%
96%
78%
% under line
39%
26%
52%
44%
35%
54%
13%
4%
22%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.4
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Aberdeen
10.2
Rangers
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.1
Dundee
9.8
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.4
Motherwell
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Hibernian
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.3
Kilmarnock
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.9
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.6
Motherwell
26.0
Aberdeen
25.8
Falkirk
25.2
Kilmarnock
24.3
Heart Of Midlothian
24.3
Hibernian
23.2
ST Mirren
22.1
Dundee Utd
22.0
ST Johnstone
22.0
Dundee
21.7
Celtic
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.4%
@ 1.38-8.1%
Under 9.5
41.6%
@ 2.74+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
3.05
Unibet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.70
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.50
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.0%
@ 1.82+8.4%
Under 3.5
41.0%
@ 1.86-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.76
Under
Betano
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.7%
Under 21.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Celtic or Draw✓ Hit
94.8%
Avg Implied 90.6% · @ 1.04
Edge
+4.2%
78%
15%
7%
covers Celtic + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
William Hil
1.05
Celtic or Aberdeen✓ Hit
86.1%
Avg Implied 85.1% · @ 1.11
Edge
+1.0%
78%
15%
7%
covers Celtic + Aberdeen
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
Draw or Aberdeen✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.89
Edge
-5.2%
78%
15%
7%
covers Draw + Aberdeen
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
3.90
Betano
3.90
BetVictor
3.90
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Celtic over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.0%
@ 1.03+1.9%
Under
7.0%
@ 10.62-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Under
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Celtic over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
74.5%
@ 1.26+0.3%
Under
25.5%
@ 3.61-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.89
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Celtic over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
49.7%
@ 1.82-1.4%
Under
50.3%
@ 1.91+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Under
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
Unibet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Celtic over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
27.8%
@ 3.09-2.4%
Under
72.2%
@ 1.33+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.37
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.13
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Aberdeen over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
43.9%
@ 1.71-10.7%
Under
56.1%
@ 2.06+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Unibet
1.73
Betano
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
10Bet
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Aberdeen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
11.5%
@ 4.45-9.5%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.18+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Aberdeen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 11.85-5.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.03+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Betfair
11.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Aberdeen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.3%
@ 45.50-99.7%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Celtic, so a minus line means Celtic give that many goals of a start and Aberdeen receive them. At -1, Celtic must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Celtic win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic -2
38.2%
@ 2.53+2.6%
Draw -2
22.5%
@ 4.00-0.0%
Aberdeen +2
39.3%
@ 2.15-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Away
Betfair
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Handicap -1 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic -1
60.7%
@ 1.63+5.6%
Draw -1
20.2%
@ 4.12-1.7%
Aberdeen +1
19.1%
@ 3.92-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Away
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.78
Bet365
3.75
Handicap +1 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic +1
94.8%
@ 1.05+6.6%
Draw +1
3.9%
@ 11.67-4.0%
Aberdeen -1
1.3%
@ 23.67-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
19.00
Handicap +2 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic +2
98.7%
Draw +2
1.1%
Aberdeen -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.31
0.44
1.00
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
1.28
0.40
1.36
0.29
1.18
0.55
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.88
0.50
0.29
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.42
0.67
0.17
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.85
1.29
0.71
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.6%
@ 1.21-0.5%
Under 0.5
23.4%
@ 4.06+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
43.3%
@ 2.01-3.3%
Under 1.5
56.7%
@ 1.75+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.04
SBO
2.04
Under
Superbet
1.82
SBO
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.3%
@ 4.21-4.8%
Under 2.5
82.7%
@ 1.19+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Betano
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Unibet
4.30
Under
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
66.1%
@ 1.35-2.9%
Under
33.9%
@ 2.99+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
10Bet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Unibet
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.82
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
30.1%
@ 2.62-5.4%
Under
69.9%
@ 1.44+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Pinnacle
2.65
Unibet
2.65
10Bet
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.43
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
6.7%
@ 6.08-8.5%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.09+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
6.25
Betano
6.20
1xBet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
28.6%
@ 3.00-2.5%
Under
71.4%
@ 1.35+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.29
Unibet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Betano
3.00
Superbet
2.90
Under
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 10.95-3.5%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
12.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
10.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 55.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.77
0.88
0.69
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.00
0.84
0.86
0.64
1.18
1.09
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aberdeen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aberdeen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.88
0.44
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.17
0.00
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.77
1.14
0.43
0.67
1.17
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
84.9%
@ 1.12+1.3%
Under 0.5
15.1%
@ 5.71-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Under
1xBet
6.10
Superbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Betano
5.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
52.0%
@ 1.60-6.1%
Under 1.5
48.0%
@ 2.23+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.8%
@ 2.85-6.8%
Under 2.5
74.2%
@ 1.38+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
10Bet
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.80
Under
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
76.4%
@ 1.22+0.2%
Under
23.6%
@ 3.90-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Betano
3.85
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.7%
@ 2.04-6.6%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.69+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Superbet
1.68
10Bet
1.65
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 4.26-6.6%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.19+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.30
1xBet
4.20
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Aberdeen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.6%
@ 2.44-7.4%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.49+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.44
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.42
Under
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.46
Aberdeen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 8.60-4.7%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.04+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.70
1xBet
9.00
Superbet
8.30
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Aberdeen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 22.75-3.1%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.02
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Unibet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
94.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
William Hil
1.05
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
94.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.09
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
+8.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.0%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
10Bet
1.12
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
88.5%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+9.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
86.1%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.11
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.12
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.17
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
1.19
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
+4.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
77.9%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.32
-
-
+9.7%
✗ Miss
Home win
77.8%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Dafabet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.6%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.6%
1.21
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.22
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
-
-
+0.2%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
74.5%
1.26
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.2%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
72.2%
1.33
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
71.4%
1.35
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.4%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-5.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Nygren67%
C. Durán50%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
C. McGregor20%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
C. Carter-Vickers17%
Colby Donovan17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
H. Hassan0%
B. Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
C. Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Nygren50%
Kieran Tierney40%
C. Durán33%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Durán67%
Kasper Høgh50%
H. Hassan33%
B. Nygren33%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Aberdeen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
K. Nisbet25%
L. Mayo25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Mayo75%
Aremu Afeez50%
Daniel Happe33%
C. Ronan33%
Alexander Briedl33%
Chris Cadden25%
K. Nisbet25%
Toyosi Olusanya25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
L. Smith0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Daniel Happe0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniel Happe33%
K. Nisbet25%
M. Müller0%
Stuart Armstrong0%
Chris Cadden0%
L. Smith0%
Aremu Afeez0%
C. Ronan0%
N. Guinness-Walker0%
L. Mayo0%
Toyosi Olusanya0%
Alexander Briedl0%
Ayoub Mouloua0%
Tony Yogane0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Celtic's squad is €102m more valuable than Aberdeen's (€116m vs €15m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Celtic's attack is €52m more valuable than Aberdeen's (€56m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Celtic's midfield is €15m more valuable than Aberdeen's (€20m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Celtic's defence is €34m more valuable than Aberdeen's (€41m vs €7m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
Kilmarnock