Celtic’s dominant home form, averaging 2.62 goals scored and only 0.92 conceded, makes a home win the clear favourite, reflected in an 82% win probability and the model’s pick. Falkirk’s away record against stronger teams is weak, with just 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded, so the expected total of 3.5 goals leans heavily toward a Celtic victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, carrying a 12.5% chance, and the most probable total is three goals, with a 22% probability. Celtic’s recent run of four wins after a loss and Falkirk’s draw-heavy streak after a stalemate add context to the predicted outcome. The model also suggests several selections: Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.9%), Under 7.5 (98.5% with a 4% edge), Home +2 handicap (98.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (97.4% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (96.0% with a 6% edge), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (95.9% with a 4% edge). The probabilities for the match result are 82%home win, 13% draw, and 5% away win.
Results analysis
The win extends Celtic’s recent run, coming off a 2-1 triumph over Falkirk. The model’s favourite, a home win at 81%, proved correct, as the final score was 2-1 in favour of the hosts. The predicted 3-goal total fell short, but the selections largely hit: Away under 3.5 goals at 99.6% hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5% hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 99.0% hit, Under 7.5 at 98.5% hit, Home +2 handicap at 98.3% hit, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.4% hit, Under 6.5 at 96.0% hit, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 94.9% hit. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each selection’s outcome was noted.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Celtic win✓ Hit
80.6%
Avg Implied 78.3% · @ 1.20
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Dafabet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Draw✗ Miss
13.6%
Avg Implied 13.8% · @ 6.79
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
7.40
Pinnacle
7.33
Betano
7.20
Superbet
7.10
Betfair
7.00
Falkirk win✗ Miss
5.8%
Avg Implied 7.8% · @ 12.01
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
14.00
BetVictor
13.00
Betano
13.00
Dafabet
13.00
Marathonbet
13.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Celtic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.23
2.20
1.13
2.07
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.40
2.00
2.50
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.28
1.20
2.23
0.92
2.33
1.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.73
1.73
1.07
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
3.40
1.67
4.00
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (22)
1.27
1.14
1.64
1.27
0.91
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.5%
@ 1.09+0.3%
Under 1.5
13.5%
@ 6.80-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Under
BetVictor
7.50
Pinnacle
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
67.0%
@ 1.35-2.5%
Under 2.5
33.0%
@ 3.07+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.22
Bet365
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Superbet
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.3%
@ 1.91-4.2%
Under 3.5
54.7%
@ 1.88+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.95
SBO
1.95
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.4%
@ 1.83-4.5%
No
53.6%
@ 1.90+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.82
BetVictor
1.80
No
William Hil
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.3%@ 7.13+6.0%
3-0
11.4%@ 7.52+5.4%
1-0
8.2%@ 9.66+3.6%
2-1 ✓
8.2%@ 8.95+3.2%
4-0
7.9%@ 10.29+3.5%
3-1
7.6%@ 9.39+2.8%
1-1
6.5%@ 12.25+2.8%
4-1
5.3%@ 12.60+1.7%
Celtic goals ↓
Falkirk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.8%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.2%
6.5%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
2
12%
8.2%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
11%
7.6%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
4
7.9%
5.3%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Celtic goals (down), columns = Falkirk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celtic
2.16
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Rangers
1.89
Motherwell
1.61
Hibernian
1.50
Falkirk
1.29
Dundee Utd
1.18
Dundee
1.11
Kilmarnock
1.05
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.05
ST Mirren
0.95
Celtic is 0.87 points better than Falkirk in terms of average points per game (2.16 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Rangers
2.00
Celtic
1.92
Heart Of Midlothian
1.76
Motherwell
1.55
Hibernian
1.53
Kilmarnock
1.32
Falkirk
1.32
Dundee Utd
1.29
Dundee
1.11
Aberdeen
1.05
ST Johnstone
1.00
ST Mirren
0.80
Celtic is 0.61 goals better than Falkirk in terms of goals scored per game (1.92 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Motherwell
0.95
Celtic
1.08
Rangers
1.13
Hibernian
1.16
ST Mirren
1.40
Aberdeen
1.45
ST Johnstone
1.56
Dundee Utd
1.58
Dundee
1.61
Falkirk
1.63
Kilmarnock
1.79
Celtic is 0.55 goals better than Falkirk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Celtic
66%
Rangers
58%
Motherwell
58%
Heart Of Midlothian
53%
Falkirk
51%
Aberdeen
48%
Hibernian
47%
ST Mirren
46%
Dundee
44%
Kilmarnock
42%
Dundee Utd
42%
Celtic is 14.7 percentage points better than Falkirk in terms of average possession (66% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Celtic
For 6.6 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Falkirk
For 4.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 13.4 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celtic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.8
10.8
3.6
3.8
3.4
21.1
20.8
21.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
10.9
8.8
13.7
3.9
5.4
2.0
22.3
24.5
19.3
vs Weaker (41)
10.8
11.3
10.3
3.5
3.4
3.6
20.8
20.0
21.7
% over line
62%
65%
59%
46%
44%
48%
33%
35%
32%
% under line
38%
35%
41%
54%
56%
52%
67%
65%
68%
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.7
10.5
3.5
3.7
3.4
25.6
25.2
26.1
vs Stronger (9)
10.1
8.5
11.8
3.4
4.0
3.0
23.8
24.5
23.0
vs Similar (38)
9.4
8.8
10.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
26.0
25.3
26.9
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
7.0
-
0.7
2.0
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
52%
39%
68%
54%
60%
48%
76%
74%
79%
% under line
48%
61%
32%
46%
40%
52%
24%
26%
21%
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
ST Mirren
11.2
Celtic
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.5
Hibernian
10.5
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Rangers
10.1
Aberdeen
10.1
ST Johnstone
10.0
Dundee
9.9
Falkirk
9.6
Kilmarnock
9.5
Motherwell
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aberdeen
4.8
Hibernian
4.8
Motherwell
4.7
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Rangers
4.2
Kilmarnock
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Dundee Utd
4.1
ST Johnstone
4.0
Celtic
3.8
Dundee
3.7
ST Mirren
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rangers
26.3
Motherwell
25.8
Aberdeen
25.5
Falkirk
25.3
Kilmarnock
24.4
Heart Of Midlothian
24.1
Hibernian
23.2
ST Johnstone
22.1
ST Mirren
21.9
Dundee Utd
21.8
Dundee
21.6
Celtic
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.7%
@ 1.41-4.6%
Under 9.5
39.3%
@ 2.66+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
Under
Unibet
2.75
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.71
Superbet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.57
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.7%
@ 2.55+21.3%
Under 3.5
42.3%
@ 1.46-21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.85
Betano
2.82
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
1xBet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
64.0%
Under 21.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Celtic or Draw✓ Hit
93.4%
Avg Implied 91.5% · @ 1.03
Edge
+1.9%
81%
14%
6%
covers Celtic + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Celtic or Falkirk✓ Hit
84.0%
Avg Implied 86.6% · @ 1.09
Edge
-2.6%
81%
14%
6%
covers Celtic + Falkirk
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Draw or Falkirk✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.32
Edge
+0.7%
81%
14%
6%
covers Draw + Falkirk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betano
4.45
Unibet
4.35
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Celtic over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.7%
@ 1.03-0.1%
Under
8.3%
@ 11.50+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Under
Bet365
15.00
1xBet
12.50
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.00
Celtic over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.0%
@ 1.22-5.4%
Under
29.0%
@ 3.96+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.40
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Celtic over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
45.3%
@ 1.71-9.5%
Under
54.7%
@ 2.07+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.14
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.07
Celtic over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 2.77-9.6%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.41+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.90
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.80
Superbet
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Falkirk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
46.6%
@ 1.75-6.6%
Under
53.4%
@ 2.00+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.90
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.78
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Under
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Unibet
2.00
Falkirk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 4.73-6.6%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.16+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Falkirk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 12.69-4.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.03+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betfair
1.04
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Falkirk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
@ 48.00-99.6%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Celtic, so a minus line means Celtic give that many goals of a start and Falkirk receive them. At -1, Celtic must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Celtic win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Celtic)Actual: Falkirk
Celtic -2
33.5%
@ 2.31-5.5%
Draw -2
22.4%
@ 4.04+0.2%
Falkirk +2
44.1%
@ 2.31+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Superbet
3.90
Away
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.33
Superbet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Handicap -1 (Celtic)Actual: Draw
Celtic -1
55.9%
@ 1.54-2.6%
Draw -1
21.5%
@ 4.32+0.7%
Falkirk +1
22.6%
@ 4.33+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Unibet
1.52
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Superbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Handicap +1 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic +1
93.4%
@ 1.04+4.1%
Draw +1
4.9%
@ 12.67-2.4%
Falkirk -1
1.7%
@ 27.33-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
17.00
Handicap +2 (Celtic)Actual: Celtic
Celtic +2
98.3%
Draw +2
1.4%
Falkirk -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Celtic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.27
0.47
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
1.24
0.40
1.31
0.31
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
1.00
0.93
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.60
1.33
1.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.64
0.82
0.82
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.9%
@ 1.19-2.5%
Under 0.5
24.1%
@ 4.31+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Under
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.2%
@ 1.94-8.0%
Under 1.5
59.8%
@ 1.81+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
SBO
1.96
Under
SBO
1.86
Superbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.6%
@ 3.96-6.8%
Under 2.5
83.4%
@ 1.21+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.10
Betano
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
63.8%
@ 1.31-7.2%
Under
36.2%
@ 3.20+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Under
10Bet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Betano
3.00
Celtic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
30.0%
@ 2.47-7.7%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.49+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Unibet
2.50
10Bet
2.40
Under
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.48
Celtic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
@ 5.55-8.7%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.11+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.80
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Falkirk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
27.9%
@ 3.11-2.0%
Under
72.1%
@ 1.33+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.46
10Bet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.14
Unibet
3.05
Betano
3.05
Under
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Falkirk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 11.38-3.2%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Falkirk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 55.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Celtic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.73
0.93
0.67
1.07
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.04
0.80
0.92
0.62
1.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Falkirk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Falkirk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
0.33
2.33
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.50
0.82
0.45
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celtic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.3%
@ 1.10-0.6%
Under 0.5
15.7%
@ 6.18+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.08
Under
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
Superbet
6.20
Betano
6.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.4%
@ 1.54-9.8%
Under 1.5
49.6%
@ 2.34+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Under
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.9%
@ 2.68-11.9%
Under 2.5
77.1%
@ 1.43+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.90
Superbet
2.77
Bet365
2.75
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Under
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Celtic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
74.2%
@ 1.19-3.9%
Under
25.8%
@ 4.23+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Celtic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.4%
@ 1.91-12.2%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.80+12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.76
Celtic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 3.76-10.7%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.23+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Falkirk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
28.9%
@ 2.49-8.3%
Under
71.1%
@ 1.48+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Betano
2.47
1xBet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
Falkirk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 9.04-4.8%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
Falkirk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 37.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
37.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.4%
1.03
Betfair
1.04
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.04
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.5%
1.03
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
93.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
93.4%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
91.7%
1.03
Betfair
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
86.9%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
-
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.3%
1.10
William Hil
1.12
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.08
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
84.0%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.4%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home win
80.6%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Dafabet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
79.5%
1.36
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.43
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
76.0%
1.41
1xBet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+9.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.9%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
74.2%
1.19
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-3.9%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
72.4%
1.22
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
72.1%
1.33
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Unibet
1.33
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 2H goals
71.1%
1.48
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.44
-
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
71.0%
1.22
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
70.0%
1.49
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Superbet
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.48
+7.7%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celtic
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Nygren67%
C. Durán50%
Kasper Høgh25%
Luke McCowan25%
C. McGregor20%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luke McCowan25%
C. Carter-Vickers17%
Colby Donovan17%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
H. Hassan0%
B. Nygren0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
C. Durán0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
B. Nygren50%
Kieran Tierney40%
C. Durán33%
Yang Hyun-Jun17%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
Kasper Høgh0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
H. Hassan0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Durán67%
Kasper Høgh50%
H. Hassan33%
B. Nygren33%
Kieran Tierney0%
J. Forrest0%
C. McGregor0%
C. Carter-Vickers0%
Luke McCowan0%
Auston Trusty0%
S. Tounekti0%
L. Scales0%
V. Sinisalo0%
Yang Hyun-Jun0%
Mika Baur0%
Colby Donovan0%
Falkirk
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
L. Neilson33%
Ethan Ross25%
L. McCann25%
Aodhan Doherty25%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Ethan Ross0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ethan Ross25%
Scott Bain0%
Ryan Strain0%
Liam Henderson0%
Ross Maclver0%
L. McCann0%
L. Neilson0%
D. Meļņiks0%
Ben Parkinson0%
Aodhan Doherty0%
Finley Frank Barbrook0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (29)
€136m
CEL (27)
€116m
HOM (30)
€22m
HIB (27)
€20m
MOT (26)
€16m
ABE (27)
€15m
DU (22)
€11m
SM (24)
€8m
KIL (24)
€7m
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (21)
€5m
SJ (25)
€5m
Celtic's squad is €110m more valuable than Falkirk's (€116m vs €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (11)
€56m
RAN (9)
€38m
HOM (12)
€12m
MOT (10)
€10m
HIB (9)
€7m
ABE (7)
€4m
DU (7)
€4m
KIL (9)
€3m
SJ (9)
€2m
FAL (9)
€2m
SM (8)
€1m
DUN (7)
€1m
Celtic's attack is €54m more valuable than Falkirk's (€56m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (8)
€44m
CEL (5)
€20m
HIB (7)
€8m
ABE (8)
€4m
HOM (6)
€4m
SM (6)
€3m
DU (6)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
KIL (5)
€2m
MOT (4)
€1m
SJ (5)
€1m
FAL (5)
€1m
Celtic's midfield is €19m more valuable than Falkirk's (€20m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RAN (12)
€54m
CEL (11)
€41m
ABE (12)
€7m
HOM (12)
€6m
MOT (12)
€5m
HIB (11)
€5m
DU (9)
€4m
FAL (13)
€3m
SM (10)
€3m
KIL (10)
€3m
DUN (7)
€2m
SJ (11)
€2m
Celtic's defence is €38m more valuable than Falkirk's (€41m vs €3m).
Scotland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
Motherwell
Dundee
Rangers
Hibernian
ST Johnstone
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock