Cetatea Suceava are the clear favourites, with a 48% chance of victory, a 28% draw probability and a 24% chance of a Dumbrăvița win. The match is expected to see 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% probability. Cetatea’s home form shows they average one goal scored and concede three against similar opposition, while Dumbrăvița’s away record is one goal scored and 1.11 conceded to comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (95.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.7%), Away under 2.5 goals (91.3%), Home +2 handicap (90.6%) and Under 4.5 (87.8%). Cetatea’s recent draw against Popești-Leordeni and Dumbrăvița’s recent loss to CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea set the stage for a cautious, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cetatea Suceava win
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa win
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cetatea Suceava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbrăviţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.94
0.94
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.25
2.50
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.90
0.91
0.73
1.00
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cetatea Suceava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.0%
Under 2.5
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.0%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
Cetatea Suceava goals ↓
Dumbrăviţa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
6.6%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.4%
4.9%
1.7%
0.4%
3
4.7%
4.9%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
4
1.8%
1.9%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cetatea Suceava goals (down), columns = Dumbrăviţa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
Cetatea Suceava is 0.80 points better than Dumbrăviţa in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
Cetatea Suceava is 0.60 goals better than Dumbrăviţa in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
Cetatea Suceava is 0.20 goals worse than Dumbrăviţa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cetatea Suceava or Draw
75.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Cetatea Suceava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava or Dumbrăviţa
72.2%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Cetatea Suceava + Dumbrăviţa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dumbrăviţa
51.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
28%
24%
covers Draw + Dumbrăviţa
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 0.5
Over
78.9%
Under
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 1.5
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 2.5
Over
20.5%
Under
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 3.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 0.5
Over
64.6%
Under
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 1.5
Over
27.8%
Under
72.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 2.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cetatea Suceava, so a minus line means Cetatea Suceava give that many goals of a start and Dumbrăviţa receive them. At -1, Cetatea Suceava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cetatea Suceava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cetatea Suceava)
Cetatea Suceava -2
10.4%
Draw -2
15.0%
Dumbrăviţa +2
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cetatea Suceava)
Cetatea Suceava -1
25.4%
Draw -1
22.7%
Dumbrăviţa +1
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cetatea Suceava)
Cetatea Suceava +1
75.9%
Draw +1
14.8%
Dumbrăviţa -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cetatea Suceava)
Cetatea Suceava +2
90.6%
Draw +2
6.7%
Dumbrăviţa -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cetatea Suceava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbrăviţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.45
0.55
0.45
0.56
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cetatea Suceava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cetatea Suceava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbrăviţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dumbrăviţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.44
0.44
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.45
0.36
0.27
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cetatea Suceava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbrăviţa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →