Charlton and Hull face a finely balanced clash, each side having shown similar recent form. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance, while a draw sits at 29% and an away win at 35%. The expected total goals is 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% probability. Charlton’s home form shows they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Hull’s away form averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 82.2%, Over 1.5 goals at 75.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 72.4%, Under 3.5 goals at 72.3%, and Under 11.5 corners at 70.8%. Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and the model’s selection remains the home win.
Results analysis
Charlton’s win over Hull extended their recent run, with the home side’s form showing a return to winning ways after a defeat to Tottenham. The model had picked a Home win with a 36% probability, and the result matched that prediction. The final score was 2-1, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s other selections also largely hit: Under 5.5 cards came in at 82.2%, Over 1.5 at 75.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 73.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 73.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 72.4%, and Under 3.5 at 72.3%. Only Under 11.5 corners missed, with a 70.8% probability. The predicted total of 2 goals was close to the actual 3, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 13.6%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Charlton win✓ Hit
36.1%
Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.98
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.30
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hull win✗ Miss
35.4%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.33
Edge
-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Charlton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.57
0.81
1.62
0.93
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
2.00
0.83
2.67
1.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
1.35
0.80
1.00
0.80
1.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.33
1.12
1.56
1.50
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.33
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
1.44
1.22
1.29
1.36
1.62
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.6%
Under 1.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.89+0.2%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.85-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1 ✓
8.3%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
8.1%
0-1
8.0%
2-0
6.3%
0-2
6.1%
Charlton goals ↓
Hull goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
8.0%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.1%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Charlton goals (down), columns = Hull goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Coventry
2.07
Ipswich
1.83
Southampton
1.75
Millwall
1.75
Middlesbrough
1.65
Hull
1.63
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Swansea
1.39
Birmingham
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Preston
1.30
Sheffield United
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Portsmouth
1.20
Stoke
1.20
Charlton
1.15
West Brom
1.15
Leicester
1.13
Blackburn
1.13
Oxford
1.02
Sheffield Weds
0.39
Charlton is 0.48 points worse than Hull in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coventry
2.11
Southampton
1.75
Ipswich
1.74
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Hull
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Leicester
1.26
Swansea
1.24
Birmingham
1.24
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Oxford
0.98
Charlton
0.96
Blackburn
0.91
Sheffield Weds
0.63
Charlton is 0.53 goals worse than Hull in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.49).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Coventry
0.98
Middlesbrough
1.02
Ipswich
1.02
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Norwich
1.22
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Stoke
1.22
Charlton
1.26
West Brom
1.26
Oxford
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Bristol City
1.28
Derby
1.28
Hull
1.35
Preston
1.35
Portsmouth
1.39
Watford
1.41
Wrexham
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
Leicester
1.48
QPR
1.59
Sheffield Weds
1.93
Charlton is 0.09 goals better than Hull in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.35).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Ipswich
56%
Coventry
55%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Leicester
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Hull
45%
Sheffield Weds
45%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Oxford
40%
Charlton is 2.7 percentage points worse than Hull in terms of average possession (42% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Charlton
For 4.2 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hull
For 4.0 · Against 6.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Charlton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.8
9.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
21.8
21.2
22.4
vs Stronger (14)
10.3
9.4
11.1
3.4
3.7
3.0
19.9
21.4
18.4
vs Similar (34)
9.0
8.7
9.3
3.7
3.6
3.8
22.5
20.9
24.1
vs Weaker (2)
6.5
6.0
7.0
4.5
3.0
6.0
23.5
25.0
22.0
% over line
42%
44%
40%
48%
48%
48%
52%
52%
52%
% under line
58%
56%
60%
52%
52%
52%
48%
48%
48%
This opponent (Hull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
9.7
11.5
4.3
4.2
4.3
21.6
22.6
20.5
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.7
4.0
6.0
20.7
19.0
24.0
vs Similar (47)
10.6
9.7
11.6
4.2
4.2
4.2
21.7
22.9
20.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
66%
50%
83%
58%
62%
54%
44%
54%
33%
% under line
34%
50%
17%
42%
38%
46%
56%
46%
67%
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Oxford
11.2
Middlesbrough
11.0
Millwall
11.0
Leicester
10.7
Portsmouth
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Preston
10.6
Southampton
10.6
Norwich
10.6
Hull
10.6
Blackburn
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Wrexham
10.2
QPR
10.1
Swansea
10.1
Watford
10.1
Coventry
9.9
Birmingham
9.9
Bristol City
9.8
Ipswich
9.7
Derby
9.7
West Brom
9.6
Charlton
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.6
Ipswich
4.3
Hull
4.3
Southampton
4.1
Portsmouth
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Derby
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Sheffield United
3.9
Middlesbrough
3.9
Norwich
3.8
Coventry
3.8
QPR
3.8
Bristol City
3.7
Charlton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Millwall
3.6
Leicester
3.5
Oxford
3.5
Wrexham
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Sheffield Weds
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.0
Southampton
22.7
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Leicester
22.4
Birmingham
22.3
Middlesbrough
22.1
Portsmouth
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Charlton
21.8
Hull
21.6
Sheffield Weds
21.6
Sheffield United
21.4
Watford
21.4
Blackburn
21.4
QPR
21.3
Millwall
21.2
Norwich
21.1
West Brom
21.0
Bristol City
20.9
Coventry
20.7
Stoke
20.7
Preston
19.7
Wrexham
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.9%
Under 9.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 3.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
57.7%
Under 21.5
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Charlton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.87
0.25
1.06
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.30
0.33
1.83
0.75
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.20
0.65
0.20
0.60
0.20
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.57
0.75
0.81
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.59
0.86
0.86
0.92
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Charlton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hull over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hull over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hull over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Charlton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.70
0.56
0.56
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.60
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hull
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.38
0.75
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.63
0.43
0.50
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Charlton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Charlton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charlton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hull over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hull over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hull over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (31)
€69m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
WBA (25)
€60m
DER (25)
€57m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
Charlton's squad is €74m less valuable than Hull's (€31m vs €105m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
WAT (7)
€38m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
WBA (10)
€21m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
Charlton's attack is €4m less valuable than Hull's (€18m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
WAT (5)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
BRC (6)
€19m
WBA (4)
€18m
QPR (6)
€16m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
Charlton's midfield is €28m less valuable than Hull's (€3m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
QPR (14)
€24m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
WBA (11)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
Charlton's defence is €42m less valuable than Hull's (€10m vs €52m).
England: Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →