This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.37
1.00
0.67
0.80
2.07
vs Stronger (15)
1.00
1.60
1.11
0.67
0.83
3.00
vs Similar (15)
0.80
1.13
0.83
0.67
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.6%
Under 1.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.7%
No
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.9%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
9.3%
0-1
6.2%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.3%
Chaves goals ↓
Pacos Ferreira goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
6.2%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.3%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.3%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.6%
5.1%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.2%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chaves goals (down), columns = Pacos Ferreira goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Benfica
2.38
Sporting CP
2.29
SC Braga
2.21
Rio Ave
1.50
Maritimo
1.38
Chaves
1.38
Boavista
1.32
Guimaraes
1.26
Tondela
1.12
Portimonense
1.12
Belenenses
1.09
Aves
1.00
Moreirense
0.94
Setubal
0.94
Feirense
0.91
Estoril
0.88
Pacos Ferreira
0.88
Chaves is 0.50 points better than Pacos Ferreira in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
2.18
Sporting CP
1.85
Portimonense
1.53
Chaves
1.38
Guimaraes
1.32
Tondela
1.21
Rio Ave
1.18
Setubal
1.15
Maritimo
1.06
Aves
1.06
Boavista
1.03
Belenenses
0.97
Pacos Ferreira
0.97
Feirense
0.94
Estoril
0.85
Moreirense
0.85
Chaves is 0.41 goals better than Pacos Ferreira in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Benfica
0.65
Sporting CP
0.71
SC Braga
0.85
Rio Ave
1.24
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.35
Feirense
1.41
Maritimo
1.44
Tondela
1.47
Moreirense
1.47
Aves
1.50
Chaves
1.62
Guimaraes
1.65
Pacos Ferreira
1.74
Portimonense
1.76
Estoril
1.79
Setubal
1.82
Chaves is 0.12 goals better than Pacos Ferreira in terms of goals conceded per game (1.62 vs 1.74).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chaves
For 5.6 · Against 7.2 · Total 12.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 16.3 · Total 29.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pacos Ferreira
For 3.9 · Against 5.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.6 · Against 14.1 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
12.8
13.0
12.7
0.9
0.8
1.0
29.2
27.5
30.3
vs Stronger (25)
12.9
11.5
13.4
0.9
0.5
1.2
29.6
28.5
30.0
vs Similar (19)
12.7
14.5
9.0
0.9
1.1
0.7
28.3
26.5
32.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
70%
75%
67%
14%
10%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
30%
25%
33%
86%
90%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.2
10.4
1.1
1.2
1.0
29.7
35.4
24.0
vs Stronger (25)
10.6
10.7
10.5
1.2
1.4
1.0
33.2
37.0
27.5
vs Similar (25)
9.0
7.0
10.3
1.0
1.0
0.9
26.2
33.0
21.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
40%
60%
20%
20%
20%
90%
100%
80%
% under line
50%
60%
40%
80%
80%
80%
10%
0%
20%
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Chaves
12.8
Benfica
11.8
Feirense
11.8
Estoril
11.1
Boavista
10.9
FC Porto
10.8
Guimaraes
10.7
Moreirense
10.5
SC Braga
10.2
Sporting CP
9.9
Portimonense
9.8
Pacos Ferreira
9.8
Maritimo
9.7
Belenenses
9.6
Setubal
9.1
Tondela
9.0
Aves
8.6
Rio Ave
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tondela
5.5
Pacos Ferreira
5.5
Rio Ave
5.5
Estoril
5.4
Feirense
5.3
FC Porto
5.2
Setubal
5.2
Guimaraes
5.1
SC Braga
4.9
Belenenses
4.6
Sporting CP
4.3
Aves
4.2
Moreirense
4.2
Boavista
4.2
Maritimo
4.1
Portimonense
4.0
Chaves
3.9
Benfica
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Belenenses
34.5
Feirense
33.7
Rio Ave
33.6
Sporting CP
33.4
Maritimo
33.1
Tondela
32.5
Estoril
32.2
Setubal
31.8
Moreirense
31.3
SC Braga
31.1
Guimaraes
30.7
Benfica
30.7
Aves
30.4
Pacos Ferreira
29.7
Chaves
29.2
FC Porto
29.2
Boavista
28.9
Portimonense
27.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
64.2%
Under 9.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
72.2%
Under 3.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.0%
Under 21.5
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.57
0.43
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
0.74
0.44
0.44
0.30
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.55
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.27
0.40
1.20
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
0.93
0.56
0.22
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.27
0.53
0.17
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.57
0.50
0.62
1.25
vs Stronger (19)
0.79
1.00
0.89
0.67
0.70
1.30
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.73
0.00
0.20
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pacos Ferreira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.67
0.56
0.44
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Chaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chaves · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jorge Delgado20%
David Kusso20%
Reinaldo18%
Pedro Pinho18%
André Rodrigues17%
Robyn Esajas14%
Aarón Romero12%
Tiago Simões11%
Roberto9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pedro Pinho36%
Ricardo Alves33%
Paulo Victor33%
Bruno Rodrigues31%
Zach Muscat29%
Robyn Esajas29%
Reinaldo27%
Wellington Carvalho22%
David Kusso20%
Marko Gudžulić17%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
Roberto9%
Ktatau8%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reinaldo18%
Robyn Esajas14%
Kiko Pereira11%
Tiago Almeida10%
David Kusso10%
Roberto9%
Pedro Pinho9%
Carraça8%
Bruno Rodrigues8%
Vozinha0%
Wellington Carvalho0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
André Rodrigues0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Aarón Romero0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Jorge Delgado0%
Ktatau0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo27%
Roberto27%
Jorge Delgado20%
André Rodrigues17%
Aarón Romero12%
Wellington Carvalho11%
Pedro Pinho9%
Vozinha0%
Carraça0%
João Teixeira0%
Ricardo Alves0%
Zach Muscat0%
Federico Bikoro0%
Henrique Pereira0%
Mamadou Tounkara0%
Bruno Rodrigues0%
Uroš Milovanović0%
Paulo Victor0%
Tiago Almeida0%
Kiko Pereira0%
Robyn Esajas0%
Tiago Simões0%
Marko Gudžulić0%
Ktatau0%
David Kusso0%
Gabriel Rodrigues0%
Pacos Ferreira · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Costinha50%
Joao Victor25%
David Costa14%
Vladimir Silva14%
Anilson10%
Ronaldo Lumungo9%
Nuno Cunha9%
Miguel Mota8%
Francisco Ramos0%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Andre Sousa0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fernandinho Conceição67%
Gonçalo Cardoso50%
Kauan50%
Costinha50%
Miguel Falé33%
Iuri Moreira33%
Miguel Mota25%
Fernando Gomes25%
Diegão20%
Anilson20%
Rafael Vieira18%
Ronaldo Lumungo18%
Nuno Cunha18%
Leandro Dias17%
Tiago Ferreira10%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Andre Sousa0%
João Pinto0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
David Costa0%
Vladimir Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Costa14%
Vladimir Silva14%
Andre Sousa10%
Anilson10%
Ronaldo Lumungo9%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Costinha0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel Falé50%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Andre Sousa0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Anilson0%
Ronaldo Lumungo0%
Costinha0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
David Costa0%
Vladimir Silva0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
RA (26)
€37m
MOR (21)
€22m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
POR (20)
€6m
FEI (17)
€4m
PF (13)
€2m
Chaves's squad is €7m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€9m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
MOR (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
FEI (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
Chaves's attack is €2m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
MAR (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Chaves's midfield is €2m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
RA (13)
€21m
GUI (13)
€12m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
CHA (12)
€4m
FEI (8)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Chaves's defence is €3m more valuable than Pacos Ferreira's (€4m vs €1m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Benfica
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Rio Ave
Maritimo
Boavista
Guimaraes
Portimonense
Tondela
Belenenses
Moreirense
Feirense
Estoril