PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated match between Cheltenham and Colchester in the England: League Two is finely balanced, with recent form pointing to a Colchester resurgence. The away team is coming off a win against Cheltenham, while the home side has suffered three consecutive defeats. The model predicts an away win, with a 39% probability, making it the favourite to take the three points.
The expected total goals for this match stands at 2.5, while the most likely total number of goals is 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14%.
Cheltenham's home form against similar opponents shows an average of 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In contrast, Colchester's away form against similar opponents averages 0.9 goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
The model's selection is the away win, with a 39% probability. The model also suggests taking Under 3.5 goals, with a 75.6% probability of being correct. Additionally, Over 1.5 goals is a hit, with a 72.7% probability. Cheltenham has a 32% chance of winning at home, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 39% chance of losing to Colchester.
Cheltenham's win extends their run of three consecutive victories, following a three-match losing streak. The final score of 1-4 was a significant deviation from the model's expected total of 2.5 goals. The actual result was an away win, which aligns with the model's selection of Colchester's win. The model correctly predicted the outcome. The model's selection of Colchester's win had a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection was correct. The suggested picks included an Under 3.5 total goal selection, which missed with a probability of 75.6%, and an Over 1.5 total goal selection, which hit with a probability of 72.7%.
Cheltenham| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.60 | 1.50 | 1.36 | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.33 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.42 | 1.83 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Colchester| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.93 | 1.47 | 0.73 | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 1.22 | 1.44 | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.24 | 0.71 | 1.55 | 0.73 | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Colchester goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 14% | 8.5% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
CheltenhamColchesterCheltenham| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 23.3 | 24.6 | 22.0 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 10.4 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 25.6 | 27.7 | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (35) | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 22.3 | 23.4 | 21.2 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 13.0 | 13.0 | - | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | 27.0 | 27.0 | - |
| % over line | 54% | 58% | 50% | 48% | 50% | 46% | 66% | 79% | 54% |
| % under line | 46% | 42% | 50% | 52% | 50% | 54% | 34% | 21% | 46% |
Colchester| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 25.8 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 25.6 | 25.3 | 25.9 |
| vs Similar (37) | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 24.8 | 23.9 | 25.8 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 38% | 36% | 40% | 66% | 72% | 60% | 78% | 76% | 80% |
| % under line | 62% | 64% | 60% | 34% | 28% | 40% | 22% | 24% | 20% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 75.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 72.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 08/03/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 19/10/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 24/04/21 | H | 1-0 | |
| 29/12/20 | A | 0-0 |
Cheltenham| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
Colchester| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 14/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Notts County | 49 | 87 | 53% | 1.8 | 78 | 52 | +26 | 2.7 | 73% | 55% | 27% | 9.3 | 46% | 4.4 | 65% | 24.2 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 2 |  Bromley | 46 | 87 | 52% | 1.9 | 71 | 46 | +25 | 2.5 | 76% | 52% | 28% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.7 | 57% | 21.8 | 59% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 3 |  Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 86 | 52% | 1.9 | 86 | 45 | +41 | 2.8 | 78% | 54% | 37% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.8 | 61% | 23.4 | 61% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 4 |  Salford | 49 | 85 | 53% | 1.7 | 65 | 57 | +8 | 2.5 | 65% | 47% | 27% | 9.9 | 52% | 3.7 | 41% | 24.9 | 72% | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 5 |  Cambridge | 46 | 82 | 48% | 1.8 | 66 | 33 | +33 | 2.2 | 72% | 35% | 13% | 9.2 | 50% | 3.1 | 35% | 22.9 | 59% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 6 |  Chesterfield | 48 | 80 | 44% | 1.7 | 71 | 57 | +14 | 2.7 | 71% | 44% | 29% | 10.3 | 59% | 4.2 | 57% | 21.8 | 46% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 58% |
| 7 |  Grimsby | 48 | 79 | 46% | 1.6 | 77 | 54 | +23 | 2.7 | 71% | 50% | 33% | 10.5 | 54% | 4.1 | 65% | 23.9 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 8 |  Barnet | 46 | 76 | 46% | 1.7 | 70 | 53 | +17 | 2.7 | 76% | 48% | 30% | 10.2 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 23.8 | 65% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 9 |  Swindon | 46 | 75 | 48% | 1.6 | 70 | 59 | +11 | 2.8 | 85% | 63% | 28% | 11.2 | 74% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.7 | 37% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 10 |  Oldham | 46 | 68 | 39% | 1.5 | 60 | 44 | +16 | 2.3 | 65% | 48% | 20% | 10.1 | 61% | 3.9 | 63% | 25.0 | 72% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 11 |  Crewe | 46 | 67 | 41% | 1.5 | 64 | 58 | +6 | 2.7 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 52% | 25.5 | 74% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 12 | Colchester | 46 | 66 | 39% | 1.4 | 62 | 49 | +13 | 2.4 | 67% | 35% | 20% | 9.1 | 37% | 4.1 | 63% | 24.9 | 76% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 13 |  Walsall | 46 | 65 | 39% | 1.4 | 56 | 56 | +0 | 2.4 | 70% | 48% | 26% | 10.0 | 59% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.1 | 61% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 14 |  Bristol Rvs | 46 | 62 | 41% | 1.3 | 56 | 65 | -9 | 2.6 | 72% | 52% | 30% | 9.4 | 39% | 4.7 | 76% | 24.2 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 15 |  Fleetwood Town | 46 | 61 | 33% | 1.3 | 57 | 58 | -1 | 2.5 | 74% | 46% | 20% | 10.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 54% | 23.0 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 16 |  Accrington | 46 | 53 | 30% | 1.2 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.3 | 67% | 37% | 20% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.2 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 48% |
| 17 |  Gillingham | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 53 | 72 | -19 | 2.7 | 70% | 46% | 30% | 9.5 | 43% | 4.0 | 61% | 23.9 | 63% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 46 | 52 | 30% | 1.1 | 53 | 79 | -26 | 2.9 | 80% | 48% | 33% | 9.6 | 54% | 3.6 | 48% | 22.7 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 19 |  Shrewsbury | 46 | 49 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 2.4 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 8.2 | 30% | 4.0 | 54% | 22.3 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 20 |  Newport County | 46 | 43 | 26% | 0.9 | 48 | 77 | -29 | 2.7 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 9.5 | 54% | 4.0 | 54% | 23.5 | 70% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 21 |  Tranmere | 46 | 41 | 22% | 0.9 | 54 | 79 | -25 | 2.9 | 83% | 54% | 35% | 10.2 | 54% | 3.8 | 57% | 22.4 | 61% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 22 |  Crawley Town | 46 | 40 | 17% | 0.9 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 2.4 | 74% | 43% | 26% | 12.0 | 78% | 4.1 | 59% | 25.7 | 76% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 56% |
| 23 |  Harrogate | 46 | 39 | 22% | 0.8 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.3 | 70% | 37% | 17% | 10.3 | 63% | 3.1 | 39% | 21.7 | 41% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 24 |  Barrow | 46 | 36 | 20% | 0.8 | 45 | 78 | -33 | 2.7 | 72% | 63% | 33% | 9.9 | 59% | 3.3 | 48% | 20.4 | 39% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 46% |