Cheltenham face a tough day as the model favours an away win for Grimsby, with a 44% chance of victory, 28% each for a home win or a draw. The expected total is 2.7 goals, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance. Cheltenham, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.54 goals scored and 1.54 conceded. Grimsby, on the road against a similar side, average 1.31 goals scored and only 0.77 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%, edge 6), Under 6.5 (98.1%, edge 3), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%, edge 4), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.7%, edge 4), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.8%, edge 2), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.0%, edge 5) and Under 5.5 (94.7%, edge 3). Both sides have recently drawn 2-2 matches, hinting at a balanced contest.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cheltenham win
29.1%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.50
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Draw
27.0%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.52
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
Pinnacle
3.65
Betano
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Grimsby win
43.9%
Avg Implied 47.3% · @ 1.96
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.10
Dafabet
2.00
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Bet365
1.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cheltenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.87
1.44
1.81
1.29
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.80
1.00
2.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.67
1.42
1.58
1.33
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.03
1.81
1.19
1.36
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.66
1.03
1.93
1.20
1.36
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.7%
@ 1.22+2.4%
Under 1.5
21.3%
@ 3.91-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.05
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.0%
@ 1.75+0.4%
Under 2.5
46.0%
@ 2.02-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.75
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.7%
@ 2.82-1.2%
Under 3.5
68.3%
@ 1.38+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.80
Under
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
58.0%
@ 1.63+1.3%
No
42.0%
@ 2.14-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
Betano
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
No
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 6.45+5.9%
1-2
9.2%@ 7.97+3.6%
0-1
8.1%@ 7.94+2.5%
0-2
7.3%@ 9.55+2.7%
2-1
7.3%@ 10.98+3.2%
0-0
7.0%@ 11.18+3.0%
1-0
6.2%@ 10.96+2.1%
2-2
5.8%@ 11.95+2.1%
Cheltenham goals ↓
Grimsby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
8.1%
7.3%
3.9%
1.5%
1
6.2%
13%
9.2%
4.9%
1.9%
2
4.6%
7.3%
5.8%
3.1%
1.2%
3
1.9%
3.0%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cheltenham goals (down), columns = Grimsby goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Cheltenham is 0.56 points worse than Grimsby in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Cheltenham is 0.45 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Cheltenham is 0.61 goals worse than Grimsby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.10).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Cheltenham is 6.3 percentage points worse than Grimsby in terms of average possession (49% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cheltenham
For 5.0 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 10.3 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Grimsby
For 6.6 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cheltenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.5
10.0
3.3
3.0
3.5
21.6
22.1
21.1
vs Stronger (9)
10.0
10.8
9.0
2.6
1.8
4.0
21.1
19.5
23.3
vs Similar (40)
9.7
9.3
10.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
21.8
22.9
20.8
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
% over line
56%
54%
58%
44%
38%
50%
52%
58%
46%
% under line
44%
46%
42%
56%
62%
50%
48%
42%
54%
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.7
10.4
3.6
3.4
3.8
23.5
22.5
24.6
vs Stronger (4)
9.3
9.3
-
2.0
2.0
-
20.0
20.0
-
vs Similar (45)
10.6
10.9
10.4
3.8
3.8
3.8
23.7
22.8
24.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
58%
50%
54%
54%
55%
65%
58%
73%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
46%
46%
45%
35%
42%
27%
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
11.4
York
11.2
Walsall
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Rochdale
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cheltenham
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Newport County
23.2
Walsall
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Tranmere
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.1
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Port Vale
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Swindon
20.3
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.6%
@ 1.85+2.6%
Under 9.5
47.4%
@ 1.85-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Unibet
2.00
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
46.9%
Under 3.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.1%
Under 21.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cheltenham or Draw
56.1%
Avg Implied 52.1% · @ 1.78
Edge
+3.9%
29%
27%
44%
covers Cheltenham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Cheltenham or Grimsby
73.0%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.25
Edge
-1.6%
29%
27%
44%
covers Cheltenham + Grimsby
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Draw or Grimsby
70.9%
Avg Implied 73.3% · @ 1.27
Edge
-2.3%
29%
27%
44%
covers Draw + Grimsby
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5
Over
71.5%
@ 1.35+3.0%
Under
28.5%
@ 2.93-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Marathonbet
2.88
Cheltenham over/under 1.5
Over
35.7%
@ 2.76+2.0%
Under
64.3%
@ 1.40-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.84
10Bet
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Cheltenham over/under 2.5
Over
13.3%
@ 6.99-0.0%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.07+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Cheltenham over/under 3.5
Over
3.9%
@ 16.00-2.1%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Grimsby over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
@ 1.17-0.0%
Under
20.5%
@ 4.55+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
1xBet
4.70
10Bet
4.33
Grimsby over/under 1.5
Over
47.0%
@ 1.87-2.6%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.84+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Grimsby over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
@ 3.75-3.4%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.23+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Grimsby over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
@ 7.97-4.0%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Betano
7.10
1xBet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cheltenham, so a minus line means Cheltenham give that many goals of a start and Grimsby receive them. At -1, Cheltenham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cheltenham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cheltenham)
Cheltenham -2
4.2%
@ 19.00-0.6%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 11.00+0.1%
Grimsby +2
87.2%
@ 1.06+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
17.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Away
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Cheltenham)
Cheltenham -1
12.8%
@ 7.70+1.1%
Draw -1
16.3%
@ 5.16-1.1%
Grimsby +1
70.9%
@ 1.27-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Handicap +1 (Cheltenham)
Cheltenham +1
56.1%
@ 1.79+6.0%
Draw +1
20.9%
@ 3.73-3.1%
Grimsby -1
23.0%
@ 3.45-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Unibet
1.79
Betfair
1.73
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.50
Away
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Handicap +2 (Cheltenham)
Cheltenham +2
77.0%
@ 1.25+5.3%
Draw +2
13.6%
@ 5.56-2.5%
Grimsby -2
9.4%
@ 7.35-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Unibet
5.10
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cheltenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.07
0.31
1.00
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
0.33
2.33
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.25
0.88
0.25
0.67
0.25
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.88
0.62
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.55
0.93
0.67
0.79
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.8%
@ 1.32+2.6%
Under 0.5
27.2%
@ 3.13-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.53-2.3%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.47+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Unibet
2.60
Pinnacle
2.59
Betfair
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Under
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
BetVictor
1.48
Betano
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 6.19-1.4%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.09+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.00
1xBet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.2%
@ 2.24-0.1%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.58+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.32
Unibet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.7%
@ 7.38-1.8%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.06+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
7.20
Betano
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 19.25-3.4%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Grimsby over/under 0.5 HT
Over
49.3%
@ 1.77-3.1%
Under
50.7%
@ 1.94+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
Unibet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.91
Grimsby over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.8%
@ 4.79-3.5%
Under
84.2%
@ 1.15+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.00
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Grimsby over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.4%
@ 11.75-2.6%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cheltenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.12
0.81
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.79
1.17
0.92
1.08
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Grimsby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grimsby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.94
0.56
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.79
0.48
1.00
0.53
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.4%
@ 1.19+0.7%
Under 0.5
21.6%
@ 4.18-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
William Hil
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.3%
@ 1.95-5.3%
Under 1.5
57.7%
@ 1.77+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
William Hil
1.75
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.1%
@ 3.93-4.5%
Under 2.5
80.9%
@ 1.21+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.92
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.4%
@ 1.90+1.6%
Under
49.6%
@ 1.81-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.3%
@ 5.51-0.5%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.11+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.30
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.3%
@ 16.00-2.7%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Grimsby over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.4%
@ 1.54-4.0%
Under
43.6%
@ 2.34+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Under
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.36
10Bet
2.30
Grimsby over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.9%
@ 3.50-6.6%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.26+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Grimsby over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
@ 9.00-4.5%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.03+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
10Bet
9.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.5%
Under 5.5
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+2.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.03
-
+4.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+1.8%
Away +2 handicap
87.2%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+0.5%
Home under 2.5 goals
86.7%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
+0.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.07
+1.4%
Under 5.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.15
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
+3.5%
Under 4.5
84.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+1.6%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.11
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+0.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.9%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+4.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.1%
1.26
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-
+6.6%
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
-0.0%
Over 1.5
78.7%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Bet365
1.22
+2.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
78.7%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+3.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.4%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+0.7%
Home +2 handicap
77.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
+5.3%
Home or Away
73.0%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
-1.6%
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.8%
1.32
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+2.6%
Under 4.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.5%
1.35
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
+3.0%
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
1.29
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.22
-
-0.1%
Draw or Away
70.9%
1.27
Betano
1.32
William Hil
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Bet365
1.28
-2.3%
Away +1 handicap
70.9%
1.27
Betfair
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-0.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cheltenham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan Broom67%
C. McCann50%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
J. Tomlinson0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. McWilliams67%
F. Willcox33%
J. Tomlinson25%
J. Bickerstaff25%
J. Tomkinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
C. McCann0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Sweeney33%
A. Weimann33%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
C. McCann0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. McCann50%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Grimsby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andy Cook50%
Cian Doyle33%
H. Rodgers25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Sweeney25%
H. Rodgers25%
C. McJannet25%
M. Kacurri25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
Andy Cook0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kieran Green50%
G. Turi50%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Andy Cook0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Iwan Morgan0%
Cian Doyle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Cook50%
Iwan Morgan25%
C. Pym0%
C. Vernam0%
J. Sweeney0%
Justin Amaluzor0%
J. Walker0%
H. Rodgers0%
Kieran Green0%
G. Turi0%
C. McJannet0%
M. Kacurri0%
Cian Doyle0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Cheltenham and Grimsby have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Cheltenham and Grimsby have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Cheltenham and Grimsby have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Cheltenham's defence is €1m less valuable than Grimsby's (€1m vs €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
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