Cheltenham travel to York with the model favouring an away win, reflecting a 52% probability for York, 26% for a draw and 22% for Cheltenham. The expected total goals sits at 2.7, but the most likely exact scoreline is 1-1, a 12.5% chance. Cheltenham’s home form shows a recent draw, having finished 2-2 against Barnet, while York, playing away against a stronger opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with the model’s selections heavily skewed toward under-goals: Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2% with a 4% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.8% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (97.8% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.8% with a 2% edge), Under 5.5 (93.9% with a 2% edge) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (92.9% with a 5% edge). The overall shape suggests a tight contest with York likely to edge out a win.
Results analysis
Cheltenham’s win over York was a shock that snapped the pre-match favourite’s run; the model had tipped an away win with a 52% probability, but the outcome was a 3-2 home victory. The model’s call was wrong. The match saw the home side extend their recent form, coming off a win, while York had just suffered a defeat. The model’s selections all hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.3%, Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8%, Under 6.5 at 97.8%, Under 5.5 at 93.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.8%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.9%. These high-probability picks proved accurate, even as the overall outcome defied expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cheltenham win✓ Hit
22.1%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.63
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.79
BetVictor
3.75
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.70
Bet365
3.70
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.52
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.69
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
York win✗ Miss
51.6%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.94
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.00
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.97
SBO
1.96
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cheltenham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.83
1.44
1.75
1.29
1.93
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.80
1.00
2.67
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.64
1.54
1.54
1.33
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.33
0.83
2.75
0.94
1.86
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
1.80
1.67
1.67
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (25)
2.48
0.64
3.00
0.77
1.92
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.1%
@ 1.23+1.9%
Under 1.5
22.9%
@ 3.75-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.96
Unibet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Superbet
3.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.8%
@ 1.80-0.5%
Under 2.5
48.2%
@ 1.97+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.86
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.7%
@ 2.94-1.9%
Under 3.5
70.3%
@ 1.36+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Betfair
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.2%
@ 1.66-1.5%
No
45.8%
@ 2.09+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
No
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
William Hil
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.33+5.5%
0-1
9.8%@ 7.51+3.8%
1-2
9.7%@ 7.81+4.0%
0-2
9.3%@ 9.32+4.5%
0-0
7.5%@ 10.54+3.3%
2-1
6.0%@ 11.26+2.0%
1-0
5.6%@ 10.64+1.4%
1-3
5.5%@ 13.64+2.2%
Cheltenham goals ↓
York goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
9.8%
9.3%
5.3%
2.2%
1
5.6%
13%
9.7%
5.5%
2.3%
2
3.5%
6.0%
5.1%
2.9%
1.2%
3
1.2%
2.1%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cheltenham goals (down), columns = York goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Cheltenham is 0.47 points better than York in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 0.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Cheltenham is 0.54 goals better than York in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 0.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Cheltenham is 0.98 goals better than York in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 2.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Cheltenham
For 5.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
York
For 7.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 10.2 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cheltenham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.3
10.0
3.3
3.1
3.5
22.0
22.9
21.1
vs Stronger (9)
10.0
10.8
9.0
2.6
1.8
4.0
21.1
19.5
23.3
vs Similar (41)
9.6
9.1
10.1
3.5
3.5
3.5
22.2
23.6
20.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
54%
58%
44%
38%
50%
54%
62%
46%
% under line
44%
46%
42%
56%
62%
50%
46%
38%
54%
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
11.3
14.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
19.2
20.3
16.0
vs Stronger (7)
12.0
11.3
14.0
3.6
4.2
2.7
19.2
20.3
16.0
vs Similar (43)
-
-
-
3.8
3.7
3.9
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
67%
100%
50%
48%
52%
25%
33%
0%
% under line
25%
33%
0%
50%
52%
48%
75%
67%
100%
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.8%
@ 1.59-1.3%
Under 9.5
43.2%
@ 2.20+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
54.0%
Under 21.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cheltenham or Draw✓ Hit
48.4%
Avg Implied 51.8% · @ 1.80
Edge
-3.3%
22%
26%
52%
covers Cheltenham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.85
SBO
1.85
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Cheltenham or York✓ Hit
73.7%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-0.3%
22%
26%
52%
covers Cheltenham + York
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Draw or York✗ Miss
77.9%
Avg Implied 74.3% · @ 1.26
Edge
+3.6%
22%
26%
52%
covers Draw + York
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.9%
@ 1.38-2.2%
Under
35.1%
@ 2.82+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.97
Superbet
2.85
Betano
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Cheltenham over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.1%
@ 2.86-4.3%
Under
71.9%
@ 1.38+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
Marathonbet
2.89
1xBet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Under
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Cheltenham over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
8.9%
@ 7.22-3.9%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.06+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.40
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
Cheltenham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 17.17-3.4%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
York over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.8%
@ 1.17+2.6%
Under
18.2%
@ 4.45-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.60
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
York over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.7%
@ 1.88+1.3%
Under
49.3%
@ 1.84-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Superbet
1.83
York over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.3%
@ 3.82-0.0%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.23+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Pinnacle
3.88
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
York over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 8.68-1.5%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.40
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Cheltenham, so a minus line means Cheltenham give that many goals of a start and York receive them. At -1, Cheltenham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cheltenham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cheltenham)Actual: York
Cheltenham -2
2.4%
@ 19.67-2.3%
Draw -2
6.1%
@ 10.73-2.5%
York +2
91.5%
@ 1.06+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.20
Away
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Handicap -1 (Cheltenham)Actual: Draw
Cheltenham -1
8.5%
@ 7.90-2.8%
Draw -1
13.6%
@ 5.26-3.5%
York +1
77.9%
@ 1.26+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
7.80
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Handicap +1 (Cheltenham)Actual: Cheltenham
Cheltenham +1
48.4%
@ 1.81-1.1%
Draw +1
22.8%
@ 3.69-1.5%
York -1
28.8%
@ 3.41+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.70
10Bet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Away
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
Handicap +2 (Cheltenham)Actual: Cheltenham
Cheltenham +2
71.2%
@ 1.26+0.0%
Draw +2
16.2%
@ 5.42-0.4%
York -2
12.6%
@ 7.30+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cheltenham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.03
0.38
0.94
0.36
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
2.00
0.33
2.33
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.84
0.38
0.62
0.25
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.44
0.44
0.64
0.21
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
1.16
0.28
1.69
0.38
0.58
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.34+0.9%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 3.03-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.13
Superbet
3.05
William Hil
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.60-3.2%
Under 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.44+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.72
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Under
Superbet
1.46
BetVictor
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.0%
@ 6.39-1.5%
Under 2.5
87.0%
@ 1.08+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.10
1xBet
6.05
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
32.5%
@ 2.33-7.3%
Under
67.5%
@ 1.54+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
Superbet
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Unibet
1.54
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 8.06-4.4%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.05+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.60
10Bet
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 20.75-4.0%
Under
99.3%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
York over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
55.7%
@ 1.80+4.2%
Under
44.3%
@ 1.91-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.82
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
Unibet
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
York over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.2%
@ 4.99+1.6%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.14-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Superbet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
York over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 13.58-0.8%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.02+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cheltenham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.80
1.06
0.81
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.12
0.80
1.15
0.92
1.08
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (York) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
York
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.50
1.31
0.50
1.21
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.20
1.33
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (25)
1.32
0.36
1.31
0.38
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Cheltenham) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.6%
@ 1.20+3.5%
Under 0.5
19.4%
@ 4.05-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
47.2%
@ 2.01+0.8%
Under 1.5
52.8%
@ 1.74-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Under
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
24.7%
@ 4.17+2.4%
Under 2.5
75.3%
@ 1.20-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cheltenham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.7%
@ 1.92-4.6%
Under
56.3%
@ 1.79+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.74
Cheltenham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.9%
@ 5.71-6.4%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.11+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
5.90
Superbet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Cheltenham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 16.42-4.0%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
York over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
65.5%
@ 1.55+5.4%
Under
34.5%
@ 2.33-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.57
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Under
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.27
York over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
29.0%
@ 3.58+3.1%
Under
71.0%
@ 1.25-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
York over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.7%
@ 9.18-1.4%
Under
91.3%
@ 1.03+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.90
1xBet
9.80
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.02
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.3%
1.03
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.06
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
90.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+6.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
BetVictor
1.07
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.8%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
79.8%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
77.9%
1.26
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
+3.6%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
77.9%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.1%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
75.7%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
-2.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
73.7%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.26
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.9%
1.38
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
71.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.0%
1.25
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.3%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Betfair
1.36
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.34
Betano
1.40
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
+0.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Cheltenham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ryan Broom67%
C. McCann50%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
J. Tomlinson0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
S. McWilliams67%
F. Willcox33%
J. Tomlinson25%
J. Bickerstaff25%
J. Tomkinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
C. McCann0%
Wyll Stanway0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
P. Sweeney33%
A. Weimann33%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
C. McCann0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. McCann50%
J. Tomlinson25%
B. Stevenson0%
P. Sweeney0%
S. McWilliams0%
Ryan Broom0%
A. Weimann0%
J. Shipley0%
Robbie Cundy0%
G. Nurse0%
J. Bickerstaff0%
J. Tomkinson0%
Wyll Stanway0%
F. Willcox0%
York
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Newby50%
O. Pearce25%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
J. King0%
Joe Grey0%
H. Boyes0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Z. Medley33%
Ryan Fallowfield33%
Alfie McNally33%
M. Williams25%
Ollie Banks0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
A. Newby0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
H. Boyes0%
Joe Felix0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
H. Boyes100%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
A. Newby0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Joe Grey0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Newby50%
H. Boyes33%
Joe Grey25%
Z. Medley0%
Ollie Banks0%
Ryan Fallowfield0%
M. Kitching0%
Alex Hunt0%
Arthur Read0%
M. Williams0%
J. King0%
O. Pearce0%
Alfie McNally0%
Joe Felix0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Cheltenham's squad is €2m more valuable than York's (€3m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Cheltenham and York have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Cheltenham and York have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Cheltenham and York have a similar defence value (both €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale