Chernihiv vs Nyva Ternopil Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win for Nyva Ternopil, with a 45% chance, while a draw sits at 29% and a Chernihiv victory at 26%. The expected total goals hover around 2.4, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.9% probability. Chernihiv, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.91 conceded, whereas Nyva Ternopil, on the road, averages 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 77.6% probability and Over 1.5 with a 70.7% probability. The home win probability is 26%, the draw probability 29%, and the away win probability 45%. The recent form shows Chernihiv coming off a defeat, while Nyva Ternopil follows a draw, setting the stage for a tightly contested match.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win at 45%, failed to materialise, leaving the match to finish 3-3 for a draw. The final score matched the model’s expectation of a 2-goal game, but the actual result was a stalemate. The model’s selection for the total was under 3.5 with a 77.6% probability, which missed, while its pick for over 1.5, at 70.7%, hit. Chernihiv, coming off a defeat in their last five, struggled to keep the scoreline down, while Nyva Ternopil, after a draw, also could not secure a win. The model’s favourite was wrong, but its other picks delivered mixed outcomes.