The contest between Chesterfield and Barnet is a true toss-up; the model sees no clear favourite, but it does lean toward an away win. Home advantage gives Chesterfield a 34% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw, and Barnet a slightly higher 38% probability of taking the match. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly active game, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model favours is 1-1, a 13.8% probability, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the sides.
Chesterfield, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages one goal scored and 0.83 conceded, while Barnet, on the road, scores 1.6 and concedes 1.13. This suggests a balanced attack and defence from both sides.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.6% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.5% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (96.1% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (95.2% with a 2% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.2% with a 3% edge).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chesterfield win
33.2%
Avg Implied 43.9% · @ 2.11
Edge
-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.20
10Bet
2.16
Betfair
2.15
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Draw
29.2%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.52
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.71
Betfair
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Barnet win
37.5%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.12
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chesterfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.00
1.14
1.00
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.00
1.20
0.80
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
1.00
1.11
1.11
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.17
1.93
1.21
1.56
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.73
1.17
1.93
1.21
1.56
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.4%
@ 1.22-2.7%
Under 1.5
26.6%
@ 3.90+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.04
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Marathonbet
3.88
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.7%
@ 1.75-6.8%
Under 2.5
53.3%
@ 2.02+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.2%
@ 2.85-7.5%
Under 3.5
74.8%
@ 1.38+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Under
BetVictor
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
53.0%
@ 1.62-4.1%
No
47.0%
@ 2.16+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.64
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
No
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.20
BetVictor
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Marathonbet
2.16
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 6.33+6.9%
0-0
9.1%@ 11.31+5.2%
0-1
9.1%@ 10.14+4.7%
1-0
8.4%@ 8.22+2.9%
1-2
8.4%@ 10.09+3.9%
2-1
7.8%@ 8.14+2.3%
0-2
6.8%@ 15.78+4.0%
2-0
5.9%@ 10.59+1.7%
Chesterfield goals ↓
Barnet goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
9.1%
6.8%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.4%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.9%
7.8%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.2%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chesterfield goals (down), columns = Barnet goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Chesterfield is 0.01 points better than Barnet in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Chesterfield is 0.04 goals worse than Barnet in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Chesterfield is 0.04 goals worse than Barnet in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Chesterfield is 1.6 percentage points better than Barnet in terms of average possession (58% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chesterfield
For 4.3 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 13.1 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnet
For 6.8 · Against 3.9 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.7 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chesterfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.8
9.6
4.0
4.4
3.6
22.0
21.2
23.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.8
10.5
9.1
4.2
4.5
3.9
22.6
21.6
23.5
vs Weaker (21)
10.9
11.2
10.4
3.7
4.2
3.0
21.3
20.7
22.1
% over line
59%
60%
58%
56%
64%
48%
51%
44%
58%
% under line
41%
40%
42%
44%
36%
52%
49%
56%
42%
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.2
10.1
3.6
3.4
3.8
24.0
23.9
24.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.2
10.2
10.1
3.6
3.4
3.8
24.0
23.9
24.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
55%
54%
56%
52%
46%
58%
67%
58%
76%
% under line
45%
46%
44%
48%
54%
42%
33%
42%
24%
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
11.4
York
11.2
Walsall
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Port Vale
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Chesterfield
10.3
Barnet
10.2
Oldham
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Accrington
9.8
Gillingham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Crewe
9.6
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Rochdale
9.0
Colchester
9.0
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Accrington
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
York
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cheltenham
3.4
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.1
Crewe
25.1
Colchester
24.9
Salford
24.8
Oldham
24.7
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.9
Grimsby
23.8
Gillingham
23.6
Rotherham
23.5
Rochdale
23.5
Newport County
23.2
Walsall
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Tranmere
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.1
Exeter
22.0
Chesterfield
22.0
Port Vale
21.9
Northampton
21.9
Accrington
21.8
Swindon
20.3
York
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.7%
@ 1.66-0.1%
Under 9.5
44.3%
@ 2.10+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
55.2%
Under 3.5
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.6%
Under 21.5
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chesterfield or Draw
62.5%
Avg Implied 70.0% · @ 1.33
Edge
-7.5%
33%
29%
38%
covers Chesterfield + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Chesterfield or Barnet
70.8%
Avg Implied 73.8% · @ 1.26
Edge
-3.1%
33%
29%
38%
covers Chesterfield + Barnet
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
Draw or Barnet
66.8%
Avg Implied 56.2% · @ 1.65
Edge
+10.6%
33%
29%
38%
covers Draw + Barnet
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5
Over
70.6%
@ 1.19-7.2%
Under
29.4%
@ 4.18+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.40
BetVictor
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Chesterfield over/under 1.5
Over
34.7%
@ 1.97-12.6%
Under
65.3%
@ 1.76+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.01
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
Under
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Chesterfield over/under 2.5
Over
12.6%
@ 4.16-9.7%
Under
87.4%
@ 1.20+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.35
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Chesterfield over/under 3.5
Over
3.6%
@ 8.80-7.1%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.06+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.80
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Barnet over/under 0.5
Over
73.2%
@ 1.31+2.4%
Under
26.8%
@ 3.17-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Barnet over/under 1.5
Over
37.9%
@ 2.56+1.6%
Under
62.1%
@ 1.46-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Superbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.57
BetVictor
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Barnet over/under 2.5
Over
14.7%
@ 6.14-0.4%
Under
85.3%
@ 1.09+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.20
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Barnet over/under 3.5
Over
4.5%
@ 15.17-1.8%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chesterfield, so a minus line means Chesterfield give that many goals of a start and Barnet receive them. At -1, Chesterfield must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chesterfield win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chesterfield)
Chesterfield -2
4.9%
@ 8.57-5.6%
Draw -2
9.8%
@ 6.10-4.9%
Barnet +2
85.3%
@ 1.20+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.60
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Away
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Chesterfield)
Chesterfield -1
14.7%
@ 3.94-8.1%
Draw -1
18.6%
@ 3.87-4.5%
Barnet +1
66.8%
@ 1.65+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.92
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Away
Superbet
1.71
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Handicap +1 (Chesterfield)
Chesterfield +1
62.5%
@ 1.34-4.9%
Draw +1
20.0%
@ 4.86+1.5%
Barnet -1
17.5%
@ 6.35+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
Marathonbet
4.90
10Bet
4.50
Away
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.20
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Chesterfield)
Chesterfield +2
82.5%
@ 1.09-1.5%
Draw +2
11.3%
@ 9.10+1.3%
Barnet -2
6.2%
@ 15.33+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.30
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chesterfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.50
0.93
0.50
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.33
0.89
0.44
0.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
1.14
0.43
0.50
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.80
0.43
1.14
0.43
0.50
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.6%
@ 1.31-0.2%
Under 0.5
29.4%
@ 3.20+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.2%
@ 2.53-1.6%
Under 1.5
64.8%
@ 1.47+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.57
Betfair
2.55
Under
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 6.16-2.0%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.09+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.05
1xBet
6.05
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.0%
@ 1.83-3.5%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.87+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.84
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.2%
@ 5.24-3.6%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.13+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
@ 14.00-4.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Barnet over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.2%
@ 2.14+5.0%
Under
51.8%
@ 1.63-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.21
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Barnet over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.5%
@ 7.12-2.6%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.07+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Superbet
7.10
Betano
6.60
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Barnet over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.1%
@ 21.17-2.5%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chesterfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.21
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.33
0.20
0.20
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (15)
0.40
0.67
0.22
0.67
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnet) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnet
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
0.79
0.79
1.06
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.93
0.73
0.79
0.79
1.06
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.8%
@ 1.19-0.1%
Under 0.5
22.2%
@ 4.20+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.25
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.2%
@ 1.96-3.2%
Under 1.5
55.8%
@ 1.77+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
William Hil
1.95
Under
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.8%
@ 4.03-5.2%
Under 2.5
82.2%
@ 1.21+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.4%
@ 1.59-7.0%
Under
48.6%
@ 2.23+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.54
Under
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Superbet
2.25
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.11
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.9%
@ 3.80-7.5%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.23+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Superbet
3.75
1xBet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.5%
@ 9.56-6.2%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Barnet over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.7%
@ 1.82+2.9%
Under
46.3%
@ 1.88-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Under
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
Barnet over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.0%
@ 5.13-1.1%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.13+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.55
Superbet
5.20
1xBet
5.10
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.80
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Barnet over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.1%
@ 14.17-1.6%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.4%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.4%
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
-
-
+7.1%
Away under 3.5 goals
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
Under 5.5
95.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
+4.8%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.6%
Under 4.5
88.5%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.14
+5.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
87.4%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
+9.7%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
+2.0%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+3.6%
Away +2 handicap
85.3%
1.20
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+10.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
85.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
+0.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.23
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+7.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+1.1%
Home +2 handicap
82.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.07
-
-
-1.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.2%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.17
+5.2%
Under 5.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.16
-0.1%
Over 2.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.8%
1.38
BetVictor
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
+7.5%
Under 25.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.4%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Unibet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
-2.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
73.2%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Unibet
1.30
+2.4%
Home or Away
70.8%
1.26
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
-3.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
70.6%
1.19
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
-7.2%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.31
Betano
1.38
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
-0.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chesterfield
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle McFadzean50%
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
J. Simpson25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
Tom Naylor0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. McEachran0%
L. Mandeville0%
Josh Koroma0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Lee Bonis0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Koroma50%
L. Mandeville25%
Lee Bonis25%
D. Markanday25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Barnet
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Lakin50%
K. Tshimanga50%
J. Reeves33%
Tom Knowles25%
I. Kanu25%
Brandon Comley0%
W. Wright0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brandon Comley33%
Tom Knowles25%
I. Kanu25%
C. Lakin25%
M. Cox25%
Z. Williams25%
W. Wright0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
K. Tshimanga0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Tshimanga50%
C. Lakin25%
Brandon Comley0%
Tom Knowles0%
W. Wright0%
I. Kanu0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Lakin25%
Brandon Comley0%
Tom Knowles0%
W. Wright0%
I. Kanu0%
N. Ofoborh0%
Myles Kenlock0%
Nikola Tavares0%
J. Reeves0%
K. Tshimanga0%
A. Senior0%
D. Collinge0%
M. Cox0%
Z. Williams0%
Oisin Gallagher0%
J. Maskell0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Chesterfield's squad is €2m more valuable than Barnet's (€6m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Chesterfield's attack is €2m more valuable than Barnet's (€3m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Chesterfield and Barnet have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Chesterfield and Barnet have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale