Chesterfield's recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning streak, including a 2-1 victory over Swindon. This momentum suggests they could take all three points against Crewe. The model predicts a home win, which aligns with the predicted probabilities: Chesterfield have a 52% chance of winning, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of Crewe emerging victorious. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total being 2 goals.
The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.2%. In terms of scoring and conceding, Chesterfield have averaged 1.42 goals at home, conceding the same number, while Crewe have averaged 0 goals when away to stronger opponents, conceding 1 goal. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has a high probability of 78.8%. The model also suggests a Chesterfield win, which has a 52% probability, and a draw, with a 26% probability.
Results analysis
Chesterfield's win extends their 2-game winning run, with the most recent victory coming against Swindon. The final score was 2-0, resulting in a home win, which was the actual outcome. The model correctly predicted the home win, with Chesterfield as the pre-match favourite at 52% probability. The model's selection of home win proved correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78.8%. In contrast, the model's selection of the most likely total goals, 2, missed, with a probability of 25%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chesterfield win✓ Hit
52.1%
Avg Implied 61.0% · @ 1.52
Edge
-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 21.6% · @ 4.29
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crewe win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied 17.4% · @ 5.31
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chesterfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.10
1.33
1.13
1.40
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.56
1.25
1.38
1.12
1.75
1.38
vs Weaker (14)
1.14
0.93
1.29
1.14
1.00
0.71
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.27
1.67
1.27
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.47
1.27
1.67
1.27
1.27
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.2%
@ 1.63-2.6%
Under 2.5
45.8%
@ 2.14+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.9%
Under 3.5
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.1%
2-0 ✓
9.0%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.7%
2-2
5.3%
Chesterfield goals ↓
Crewe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
5.2%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
1
9.1%
12%
6.0%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.8%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
5.3%
5.7%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.3%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chesterfield goals (down), columns = Crewe goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bromley
1.89
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Cambridge
1.78
Notts County
1.78
Salford
1.73
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Grimsby
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Crawley Town
0.87
Harrogate
0.85
Barrow
0.78
Chesterfield is 0.21 points better than Crewe in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Milton Keynes Dons
1.87
Grimsby
1.60
Notts County
1.59
Bromley
1.54
Swindon
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Cambridge
1.43
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Salford
1.33
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Walsall
1.22
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Barrow
0.98
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Harrogate
0.85
Chesterfield is 0.09 goals better than Crewe in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cambridge
0.72
Oldham
0.96
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Bromley
1.00
Notts County
1.06
Colchester
1.07
Grimsby
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Harrogate
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Barrow
1.70
Tranmere
1.72
Cheltenham
1.72
Chesterfield is 0.07 goals better than Crewe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Notts County
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Cambridge
51%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Milton Keynes Dons
49%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Harrogate
47%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Barrow
46%
Bromley
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Chesterfield is 7.9 percentage points better than Crewe in terms of average possession (58% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chesterfield
For 7.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Crewe
For 5.0 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.8 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chesterfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
11.3
9.3
4.1
4.6
3.6
22.1
21.7
22.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
10.7
11.3
9.9
4.3
4.8
3.8
22.1
21.9
22.4
vs Weaker (26)
10.1
11.3
8.9
3.9
4.5
3.4
22.0
21.5
22.5
% over line
59%
62%
57%
56%
65%
46%
47%
42%
52%
% under line
41%
38%
43%
44%
35%
54%
53%
58%
48%
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.8
9.8
3.8
3.4
4.2
25.7
27.4
24.0
vs Stronger (1)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
-
2.0
27.0
-
27.0
vs Similar (49)
9.3
8.8
9.8
3.9
3.4
4.3
25.6
27.4
23.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
50%
64%
50%
40%
60%
76%
83%
68%
% under line
43%
50%
36%
50%
60%
40%
24%
17%
32%
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.8
Swindon
10.9
Harrogate
10.5
Grimsby
10.4
Bromley
10.4
Chesterfield
10.3
Oldham
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Barrow
10.0
Salford
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Walsall
9.9
Cheltenham
9.9
Accrington
9.8
Notts County
9.7
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Newport County
9.5
Colchester
9.3
Crewe
9.3
Gillingham
9.3
Cambridge
8.9
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.4
Crawley Town
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.3
Colchester
4.2
Chesterfield
4.2
Notts County
4.2
Accrington
4.2
Grimsby
4.1
Gillingham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Tranmere
4.0
Fleetwood Town
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Milton Keynes Dons
3.8
Newport County
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Swindon
3.5
Barrow
3.4
Cambridge
3.1
Harrogate
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.7
Crawley Town
25.3
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
24.9
Salford
24.4
Milton Keynes Dons
24.3
Notts County
24.2
Bristol Rvs
24.1
Gillingham
24.1
Grimsby
23.8
Barnet
23.6
Fleetwood Town
23.2
Cheltenham
23.2
Tranmere
23.0
Walsall
22.9
Cambridge
22.7
Newport County
22.7
Shrewsbury
22.5
Bromley
22.2
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Harrogate
21.5
Swindon
21.0
Barrow
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.5%
Under 9.5
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.9%
Under 3.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
49.3%
Under 21.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chesterfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.60
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.81
1.00
0.75
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
0.64
0.21
1.00
0.43
0.29
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.47
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.60
0.80
0.80
0.47
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chesterfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.33
0.53
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.44
0.38
0.38
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
0.71
0.29
0.71
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Crewe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crewe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.67
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.83
0.67
0.87
0.47
0.80
0.87
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crewe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (29)
€10m
BR (25)
€5m
SAL (27)
€5m
NC (24)
€5m
GRI (26)
€5m
CRE (25)
€5m
CAM (22)
€5m
CHE (25)
€4m
GIL (27)
€4m
WAL (25)
€4m
FT (23)
€4m
CT (26)
€4m
SWI (25)
€4m
BAR (20)
€4m
COL (22)
€4m
TRA (27)
€3m
BRO (18)
€3m
BAR (24)
€3m
OLD (22)
€3m
CHE (21)
€3m
NC (24)
€3m
ACC (20)
€3m
SHR (19)
€2m
HAR (26)
€2m
Chesterfield and Crewe have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (10)
€3m
NC (8)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CHE (9)
€2m
SAL (9)
€2m
GRI (12)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
COL (8)
€2m
GIL (9)
€1m
SWI (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
TRA (10)
€1m
CAM (7)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
OLD (6)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
NC (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
BRO (4)
€0m
HAR (6)
€0m
SHR (4)
€0m
Chesterfield and Crewe have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (6)
€3m
SAL (8)
€2m
NC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (8)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
GIL (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BAR (6)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
CT (8)
€1m
HAR (9)
€1m
CAM (5)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
CHE (7)
€1m
GRI (4)
€1m
SWI (6)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
COL (4)
€1m
SHR (5)
€1m
NC (5)
€0m
BR (3)
€0m
Chesterfield and Crewe have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MKD (13)
€3m
BR (12)
€3m
GRI (10)
€3m
CAM (10)
€3m
WAL (12)
€2m
CT (11)
€2m
FT (11)
€2m
CHE (11)
€2m
CRE (9)
€2m
GIL (10)
€2m
SAL (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
NC (9)
€2m
SWI (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€1m
NC (12)
€1m
COL (10)
€1m
TRA (9)
€1m
OLD (9)
€1m
BAR (7)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
HAR (11)
€1m
Chesterfield and Crewe have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Notts County
Bromley
Milton Keynes Dons
Salford
Cambridge
Grimsby
Barnet
Swindon
Oldham
Colchester
Walsall
Bristol Rvs
Fleetwood Town
Accrington
Gillingham
Cheltenham
Shrewsbury
Newport County
Tranmere
Crawley Town
Harrogate
Barrow