The model favours a home win, with a 51% chance for Chesterfield, a 28% chance for a draw and a 21% chance for Gillingham. The expected total goals is 2.4, most likely 2 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4%. Chesterfield, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded, while Gillingham, away against a stronger opponent, averages 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.7%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.5% with a 3% edge), Under 5.5 (96.5% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.1% with a 5% edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.2% with a 7% edge). The match opens with Chesterfield still recovering from a recent defeat, while Gillingham comes off a draw.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Chesterfield, failed to materialise as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extends both sides’ recent run of draws. The model’s call was wrong, with a 51% probability for a home victory. The final score matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, which had a 13.4% chance. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.7%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Under 6.5 at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5%, Under 5.5 at 96.5%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.3%. All picks were settled and hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chesterfield win✗ Miss
50.8%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.57
Edge
-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Dafabet
1.59
Draw✓ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.85
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.10
Pinnacle
3.96
Betfair
3.90
William Hil
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Gillingham win✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.55
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
6.00
Dafabet
5.80
Pinnacle
5.78
Unibet
5.75
BetVictor
5.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Chesterfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.00
1.07
1.00
1.19
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.83
1.40
1.10
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
1.00
1.12
1.12
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.90
1.00
2.06
0.71
1.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
2.50
0.50
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.81
1.07
1.79
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.3%
@ 1.29-1.7%
Under 1.5
29.7%
@ 3.31+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.36
Superbet
3.35
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.9%
@ 1.95-5.3%
Under 2.5
57.1%
@ 1.81+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Under
Bet365
1.85
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
SBO
1.82
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.0%
@ 3.38-5.5%
Under 3.5
78.0%
@ 1.28+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.52
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Under
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.9%
@ 1.95-0.6%
No
53.1%
@ 1.76+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
BetVictor
1.95
1xBet
1.95
No
William Hil
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%@ 6.85+6.9%
1-0
12.6%@ 5.78+4.9%
2-0
10.4%@ 6.65+3.8%
0-0
10.3%@ 9.01+5.4%
2-1
9.2%@ 7.52+3.3%
0-1
6.8%@ 12.53+3.3%
1-2
5.4%@ 16.16+2.6%
3-0
5.3%@ 11.06+1.3%
Chesterfield goals ↓
Gillingham goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.8%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.3%
2
10%
9.2%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.3%
4.6%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chesterfield goals (down), columns = Gillingham goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Chesterfield is 0.51 points better than Gillingham in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Chesterfield is 0.33 goals better than Gillingham in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Chesterfield is 0.38 goals better than Gillingham in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Chesterfield is 10.9 percentage points better than Gillingham in terms of average possession (58% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Chesterfield
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 12.8 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gillingham
For 3.9 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 11.5 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Chesterfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.9
9.7
3.9
4.4
3.5
22.0
21.2
22.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.8
10.5
9.1
4.2
4.5
3.9
22.6
21.6
23.5
vs Weaker (21)
10.9
11.3
10.5
3.6
4.4
2.8
21.2
20.7
21.8
% over line
59%
58%
60%
56%
67%
46%
51%
46%
56%
% under line
41%
42%
40%
44%
33%
54%
49%
54%
44%
This opponent (Gillingham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.1
3.9
3.8
3.9
23.7
23.1
24.4
vs Stronger (7)
8.0
6.8
9.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
23.9
23.2
24.7
vs Similar (43)
10.0
9.9
10.2
3.8
3.8
3.9
23.7
23.0
24.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
42%
52%
56%
54%
58%
61%
54%
70%
% under line
53%
58%
48%
44%
46%
42%
39%
46%
30%
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
York
12.0
Crawley Town
11.9
Swindon
11.4
Walsall
10.5
Grimsby
10.5
Barnet
10.4
Fleetwood Town
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Exeter
10.3
Northampton
10.1
Chesterfield
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Tranmere
10.0
Cheltenham
9.7
Newport County
9.7
Accrington
9.7
Gillingham
9.7
Salford
9.6
Rotherham
9.6
Crewe
9.5
Bristol Rvs
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Shrewsbury
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.6
Crawley Town
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.2
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Rotherham
4.0
Oldham
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Newport County
4.0
Fleetwood Town
4.0
York
3.9
Tranmere
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Walsall
3.7
Salford
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Exeter
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Cheltenham
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Rochdale
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crawley Town
25.2
Crewe
25.2
Colchester
25.0
Oldham
25.0
Salford
24.7
Rochdale
24.2
Barnet
24.1
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Grimsby
23.9
Gillingham
23.9
Rotherham
23.7
Newport County
23.0
Fleetwood Town
22.9
Walsall
22.9
Tranmere
22.8
Shrewsbury
22.6
Cheltenham
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Accrington
22.1
Northampton
22.1
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.9
Swindon
20.4
York
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.4%
@ 1.80+2.7%
Under 9.5
45.6%
@ 1.92-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Under
Superbet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.1%
Under 3.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
58.7%
Under 21.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Chesterfield or Draw✓ Hit
79.3%
Avg Implied 83.0% · @ 1.12
Edge
-3.7%
51%
28%
21%
covers Chesterfield + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Chesterfield or Gillingham✗ Miss
71.6%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.22
Edge
-4.8%
51%
28%
21%
covers Chesterfield + Gillingham
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Draw or Gillingham✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied 40.7% · @ 2.29
Edge
+8.5%
51%
28%
21%
covers Draw + Gillingham
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.0%
@ 1.13-3.9%
Under
22.0%
@ 5.10+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Chesterfield over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.7%
@ 1.75-8.5%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.98+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
Chesterfield over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 3.34-8.4%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.29+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
Pinnacle
3.57
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Under
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Chesterfield over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 7.10-6.4%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.08+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.40
1xBet
6.10
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
Gillingham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
58.6%
@ 1.67+3.0%
Under
41.4%
@ 2.09-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
BetVictor
1.67
Betano
1.67
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Gillingham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
22.1%
@ 4.36+0.7%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.18-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Gillingham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 12.42-1.7%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 45.50-98.7%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Chesterfield, so a minus line means Chesterfield give that many goals of a start and Gillingham receive them. At -1, Chesterfield must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Chesterfield win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Chesterfield)Actual: Gillingham
Chesterfield -2
10.8%
@ 5.11-6.6%
Draw -2
15.9%
@ 4.46-4.0%
Gillingham +2
73.2%
@ 1.43+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Away
Unibet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
Handicap -1 (Chesterfield)Actual: Gillingham
Chesterfield -1
26.8%
@ 2.56-8.1%
Draw -1
24.1%
@ 3.37-2.5%
Gillingham +1
49.2%
@ 2.32+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Away
Unibet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
10Bet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.29
Superbet
2.27
Handicap +1 (Chesterfield)Actual: Chesterfield
Chesterfield +1
79.3%
@ 1.12+0.4%
Draw +1
13.5%
@ 6.47-0.2%
Gillingham -1
7.2%
@ 12.04-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
12.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.20
Handicap +2 (Chesterfield)Actual: Chesterfield
Chesterfield +2
92.8%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Draw +2
5.4%
@ 16.00-0.5%
Gillingham -2
1.8%
@ 41.67-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
33.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chesterfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.53
0.86
0.57
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.69
0.83
0.67
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.36
0.88
0.50
0.17
0.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.77
0.38
0.81
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.65
0.43
0.64
0.25
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.38+3.0%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 2.84-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Under
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
Superbet
2.92
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.5%
@ 2.80+0.3%
Under 1.5
66.5%
@ 1.39-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.95
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Marathonbet
2.81
Under
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 7.11-0.9%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
William Hil
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
56.6%
@ 1.69+1.6%
Under
43.4%
@ 2.06-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.3%
@ 4.41-4.7%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.17+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.45
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Under
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 11.67-4.6%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.9%
@ 2.97+2.7%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.35-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.16
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.96
Unibet
2.95
Betano
2.92
Under
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Gillingham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 11.08-1.0%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.03+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 55.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chesterfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.21
0.43
0.75
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.31
0.17
0.17
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
0.43
0.64
0.25
0.62
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Gillingham) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gillingham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.62
1.25
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.62
1.15
0.64
1.14
0.58
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.7%
@ 1.25+2.1%
Under 0.5
23.3%
@ 3.66-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.85
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.6%
@ 2.15-1.8%
Under 1.5
58.4%
@ 1.65+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Unibet
1.63
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.9%
@ 4.72-2.8%
Under 2.5
83.1%
@ 1.16+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.13
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
62.5%
@ 1.48-0.4%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.50+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Under
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.46
Superbet
2.42
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 3.25-8.2%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.29+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 8.18-6.6%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.8%
@ 2.44+3.7%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.49-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.49
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.44
Betano
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.46
Gillingham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 8.62+0.1%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.04-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.10
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Gillingham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 23.17-2.7%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.08
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.05
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.02
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.04
10Bet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.07
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.1%
1.16
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
1xBet
1.13
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
80.6%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.7%
1.29
Betano
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
79.3%
1.12
Betano
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.14
10Bet
1.12
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
79.3%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.0%
1.28
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.30
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
78.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
77.9%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.25
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
73.2%
1.43
Unibet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
+10.7%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-4.8%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.3%
1.29
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.38
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.38
+3.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chesterfield
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle McFadzean50%
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
J. Simpson25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
Tom Naylor0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. McEachran0%
L. Mandeville0%
Josh Koroma0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Lee Bonis0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Koroma50%
L. Mandeville25%
Lee Bonis25%
D. Markanday25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Gillingham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Conor McManus25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Brophy25%
Robbie McKenzie25%
Omar Beckles25%
Will Goodwin25%
Nick Freeman0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nick Freeman25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
Will Goodwin0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Will Goodwin25%
J. Brophy0%
Robbie McKenzie0%
Nick Freeman0%
Omar Beckles0%
Ronan Hale0%
C. Antwi0%
A. Smith0%
Conor McManus0%
Sheldon Kendall0%
Harry Waldock0%
Logan Dobbs0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Chesterfield's squad is €3m more valuable than Gillingham's (€6m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Chesterfield's attack is €2m more valuable than Gillingham's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Chesterfield and Gillingham have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Chesterfield's defence is €1m more valuable than Gillingham's (€2m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Tranmere
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Shrewsbury
Accrington
Port Vale