This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.90
2.00
0.43
2.88
1.31
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
2.67
1.11
2.20
0.80
3.25
1.50
vs Weaker (20)
2.45
0.85
2.00
0.25
2.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.5%
@ 1.82-0.8%
Under 2.5
49.5%
@ 1.92+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
1-2 ✓
9.2%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
8.0%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
7.1%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
5.4%
Chesterfield goals ↓
Notts County goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
9.1%
7.8%
4.0%
1.5%
1
6.7%
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.8%
2
4.7%
7.1%
5.4%
2.7%
1.0%
3
1.8%
2.8%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chesterfield goals (down), columns = Notts County goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wrexham
2.41
Notts County
2.33
Chesterfield
1.83
Woking
1.78
Barnet
1.61
Boreham Wood
1.57
Bromley
1.54
Southend
1.50
Eastleigh
1.46
Dag and Red
1.37
Oldham
1.33
Halifax
1.33
Gateshead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Solihull
1.26
Dorking
1.24
Altrincham
1.22
Aldershot
1.15
York
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
Torquay
1.04
Yeovil
0.87
Scunthorpe
0.74
Maidstone
0.54
Chesterfield is 0.50 points worse than Notts County in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Notts County
2.54
Wrexham
2.52
Chesterfield
1.76
Barnet
1.63
Woking
1.54
Bromley
1.48
Altrincham
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Dorking
1.46
Aldershot
1.39
Oldham
1.37
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.33
Torquay
1.26
Southend
1.24
Wealdstone
1.24
Eastleigh
1.22
York
1.20
Boreham Wood
1.13
Scunthorpe
1.07
Halifax
1.07
Maidenhead
1.02
Maidstone
0.98
Yeovil
0.76
Chesterfield is 0.78 goals worse than Notts County in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 2.54).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Boreham Wood
0.87
Notts County
0.91
Wrexham
0.93
Southend
0.98
Halifax
1.04
Woking
1.04
Chesterfield
1.13
Bromley
1.15
Eastleigh
1.24
Yeovil
1.30
Gateshead
1.35
York
1.37
Oldham
1.39
Solihull
1.43
Maidenhead
1.43
Barnet
1.46
Dag and Red
1.57
Wealdstone
1.57
Aldershot
1.65
Torquay
1.74
Altrincham
1.78
Scunthorpe
1.89
Dorking
1.98
Maidstone
2.26
Chesterfield is 0.22 goals worse than Notts County in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 0.91).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Notts County
58%
Wrexham
56%
Boreham Wood
55%
Yeovil
54%
Chesterfield
48%
Solihull
47%
Southend
46%
Maidenhead
46%
Halifax
45%
Dorking
44%
Altrincham
43%
Oldham
42%
Barnet
40%
Chesterfield is 9.8 percentage points worse than Notts County in terms of average possession (48% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chesterfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.75
0.75
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
0.71
0.86
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (16)
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.75
0.62
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.37
1.07
0.21
1.56
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.56
1.00
0.40
2.00
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
1.30
0.30
1.12
0.12
1.42
0.42
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chesterfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.12
0.31
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.00
1.29
0.57
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.38
1.12
0.12
0.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Notts County) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Notts County
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
0.93
0.21
1.31
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.56
1.20
0.40
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (20)
1.15
0.55
0.88
0.12
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Chesterfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chesterfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chesterfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Notts County over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chesterfield · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle McFadzean50%
L. Mandeville25%
Josh Koroma25%
J. Simpson25%
Lee Bonis25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
Tom Naylor0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
G. McEachran0%
L. Mandeville0%
Josh Koroma0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
Lee Bonis0%
D. Markanday0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Koroma50%
L. Mandeville25%
Lee Bonis25%
D. Markanday25%
G. McEachran0%
Ryan Boot0%
J. Simpson0%
Tom Naylor0%
Kyle McFadzean0%
R. Hutton0%
Ryan Stirk0%
L. Gordon0%
Fraser Bryden0%
Notts County · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Roberts50%
Oliver Cooper50%
Luka Smyth33%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
H. Mustapha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Lipsiuc50%
Luka Smyth33%
H. Mustapha33%
J. Gibbons25%
J. Bedeau25%
Oliver Cooper25%
J. Evans25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
Conor Grant0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
Lucas Ness0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Tsaroulla75%
C. Roberts25%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Conor Grant0%
Oliver Cooper0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Luka Smyth0%
H. Mustapha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luka Smyth67%
H. Mustapha33%
Conor Grant25%
C. Roberts0%
J. Gibbons0%
J. Belshaw0%
Qamaruddin Kouhyar0%
J. Bedeau0%
Oliver Cooper0%
N. Tsaroulla0%
J. Evans0%
Lucas Ness0%
D. Lipsiuc0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Chesterfield and Notts County have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Chesterfield and Notts County have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Chesterfield and Notts County have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Chesterfield and Notts County have a similar defence value (both €2m).
England: National League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →