Defensive solidity will dominate this encounter, with Chornomorets averaging just 0.3 goals conceded at home and Livyi Bereh conceding 0.88 away. The model favours a home win, assigning a 49% chance, while a draw sits at 33% and an away win at 17%. The expected total of 1.8 goals points to a tight affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-0 for Chornomorets, with a 18.7% probability. Chornomorets’ recent form, highlighted by a win over Kryvbas KR, underlines their edge, whereas Livyi Bereh, unbeaten in their last five, will look to exploit the 1.38 goals per game they score away. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 (89.3%), Over 19.5 fouls (83.0%), Over 2.5 cards (78.4%), Under 5.5 cards (76.0%), Under 2.5 (73.4%), Under 11.5 corners (73.1%) and Over 21.5 fouls (70.1%). The match is set to be low-scoring and defensively oriented, with Chornomorets the clear favourite.
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw stunned everyone, as the pre-match favourite Chornomorets, picked by the model with a 49% chance of victory, failed to secure a win. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The match finished in a stalemate, extending Chornomorets’ recent win streak to five games and keeping Livyi Bereh unbeaten in five outings. The model’s other selections proved accurate: the Under 3.5 total, with an 89.3% probability, hit, as did the Under 2.5 total at 73.4%. The predicted most likely score of 1-0 (28%) was not achieved, and the final result was a clean sheet for both sides.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Chornomorets winâś— Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś“ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Livyi Bereh winâś— Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Chornomorets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.80
1.33
0.47
1.33
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.40
0.80
1.50
0.30
1.30
1.30
vs Weaker (8)
1.38
0.50
1.33
0.00
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Livyi Bereh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livyi Bereh
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.77
1.87
0.73
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.50
0.81
1.62
0.75
1.38
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.71
2.14
0.71
0.57
0.71
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Chornomorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.6%
Under 1.5
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.6%
Under 2.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.7%
Under 3.5
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
32.5%
No
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
18.7%
0-0 âś“
17.9%
1-1
13.1%
2-0
11.8%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
7.1%
3-0
4.7%
1-2
3.6%
Chornomorets goals ↓
Livyi Bereh goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
8.8%
3.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
19%
13%
3.6%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
7.1%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
3
4.7%
2.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Chornomorets goals (down), columns = Livyi Bereh goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Bukovyna
2.70
Chornomorets
2.14
Livyi Bereh
2.10
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.77
Inhulets
1.53
Metal Kharkiv
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.17
Nyva Ternopil
1.17
Chernihiv
1.03
Vorskla Poltava
1.00
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.72
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.63
Chornomorets is 0.04 points better than Livyi Bereh in terms of average points per game (2.14 vs 2.10).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bukovyna
2.47
Livyi Bereh
1.67
Chornomorets
1.41
Inhulets
1.37
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.23
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.03
Yarud Mariupol'
1.03
Metal Kharkiv
1.03
UCSA
1.00
Chernihiv
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.97
Nyva Ternopil
0.83
Vorskla Poltava
0.77
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0.69
Metalurh Zaporizhya
0.53
Chornomorets is 0.25 goals worse than Livyi Bereh in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Chornomorets
0.69
Livyi Bereh
0.70
Bukovyna
0.70
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.93
Yarud Mariupol'
1.07
Inhulets
1.07
Nyva Ternopil
1.07
Prykarpattia
1.14
Metal Kharkiv
1.17
Vorskla Poltava
1.20
Chernihiv
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27
UCSA
1.33
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
1.45
Metalurh Zaporizhya
2.03
Chornomorets is 0.01 goals better than Livyi Bereh in terms of goals conceded per game (0.69 vs 0.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Chornomorets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.33
0.20
0.13
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.40
0.20
0.20
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.25
0.33
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Livyi Bereh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livyi Bereh
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
0.36
0.86
0.43
0.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Chornomorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Chornomorets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chornomorets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chornomorets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livyi Bereh over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livyi Bereh over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livyi Bereh over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Chornomorets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
1.13
0.33
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
0.50
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.40
1.30
0.10
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Livyi Bereh) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Livyi Bereh
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
1.07
0.27
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.38
0.88
0.25
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.86
0.36
1.29
0.29
0.43
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Chornomorets) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Chornomorets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chornomorets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chornomorets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livyi Bereh over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livyi Bereh over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Livyi Bereh over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Chornomorets · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oleksiy Khoblenko25%
Moses Jarju14%
Yevgeniy Skyba12%
Denis Yanakov9%
Bogdan Butko8%
Yaroslav Rakitskyi0%
Artem Habelok0%
Artur Rudko0%
Oleksandr Vasyliev0%
Ivan Petriak0%
Denys Bezborodko0%
Igor Kogut0%
Vitalii Yermakov0%
Jon Ĺ porn0%
Illia Shevtsov0%
Bohdan Biloshevskyi0%
Kiril Popov0%
Ryan0%
Emil Mustafaiev0%
Danylo Udod0%
Kyrylo Sigeev0%
Luka Latsabidze0%
Yaroslav Kysyl0%
Caio Gomes0%
Oleksandr Pshenychnyuk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jon Ĺ porn40%
Yaroslav Kysyl40%
Yaroslav Rakitskyi38%
Ivan Petriak33%
Oleksiy Khoblenko25%
Bohdan Biloshevskyi25%
Danylo Udod25%
Ryan17%
Luka Latsabidze17%
Artem Habelok15%
Emil Mustafaiev14%
Moses Jarju14%
Kyrylo Sigeev14%
Yevgeniy Skyba12%
Denis Yanakov9%
Bogdan Butko8%
Kiril Popov8%
Artur Rudko0%
Oleksandr Vasyliev0%
Denys Bezborodko0%
Igor Kogut0%
Vitalii Yermakov0%
Illia Shevtsov0%
Caio Gomes0%
Oleksandr Pshenychnyuk0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Petriak33%
Illia Shevtsov20%
Yaroslav Rakitskyi12%
Yevgeniy Skyba12%
Bogdan Butko8%
Kiril Popov8%
Artem Habelok0%
Artur Rudko0%
Oleksiy Khoblenko0%
Oleksandr Vasyliev0%
Denys Bezborodko0%
Denis Yanakov0%
Igor Kogut0%
Vitalii Yermakov0%
Jon Ĺ porn0%
Bohdan Biloshevskyi0%
Ryan0%
Emil Mustafaiev0%
Danylo Udod0%
Moses Jarju0%
Kyrylo Sigeev0%
Luka Latsabidze0%
Yaroslav Kysyl0%
Caio Gomes0%
Oleksandr Pshenychnyuk0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Denis Yanakov18%
Emil Mustafaiev14%
Bogdan Butko0%
Yaroslav Rakitskyi0%
Artem Habelok0%
Artur Rudko0%
Oleksiy Khoblenko0%
Oleksandr Vasyliev0%
Ivan Petriak0%
Denys Bezborodko0%
Igor Kogut0%
Vitalii Yermakov0%
Jon Ĺ porn0%
Illia Shevtsov0%
Bohdan Biloshevskyi0%
Kiril Popov0%
Ryan0%
Danylo Udod0%
Moses Jarju0%
Kyrylo Sigeev0%
Luka Latsabidze0%
Yaroslav Kysyl0%
Yevgeniy Skyba0%
Caio Gomes0%
Oleksandr Pshenychnyuk0%
Livyi Bereh · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sidnney Silva Santos33%
Oleg Synytsia13%
Dmytro Shastal11%
Dmytro Semenov9%
Mykola Kohut9%
Andriy Yakimiv8%
Danyil Sukhoruchko7%
Yevhen Banada0%
Vladyslav Shapoval0%
Serhii Kosovskyi0%
Vladislav Voytsekhovskiy0%
Ivan Kogut0%
Oleg Sokolov0%
Ernest Astakhov0%
Ruslan Dedukh0%
Klim Prykhodko0%
Maksym Mekhaniv0%
Andriy Riznyk0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Valerii Samar0%
Andriy Spivakov0%
Taras Galas0%
Diego Henrique0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruslan Dedukh40%
Andriy Spivakov40%
Ernest Astakhov33%
Valerii Samar29%
Klim Prykhodko25%
Yevhen Banada23%
Andriy Riznyk20%
Ivan Kogut17%
Oleg Sokolov17%
Andriy Yakimiv15%
Diego Henrique14%
Maksym Mekhaniv12%
Dmytro Shastal11%
Dmytro Semenov9%
Vladyslav Shapoval8%
Oleg Synytsia7%
Danyil Sukhoruchko0%
Serhii Kosovskyi0%
Vladislav Voytsekhovskiy0%
Sidnney Silva Santos0%
Mykola Kohut0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Taras Galas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Serhii Kosovskyi14%
Diego Henrique14%
Danyil Sukhoruchko13%
Dmytro Shastal11%
Mykola Kohut9%
Oleg Synytsia7%
Dmytro Semenov0%
Yevhen Banada0%
Andriy Yakimiv0%
Vladyslav Shapoval0%
Vladislav Voytsekhovskiy0%
Sidnney Silva Santos0%
Ivan Kogut0%
Oleg Sokolov0%
Ernest Astakhov0%
Ruslan Dedukh0%
Klim Prykhodko0%
Maksym Mekhaniv0%
Andriy Riznyk0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Valerii Samar0%
Andriy Spivakov0%
Taras Galas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dmytro Shastal33%
Sidnney Silva Santos11%
Danyil Sukhoruchko7%
Oleg Synytsia7%
Dmytro Semenov0%
Yevhen Banada0%
Andriy Yakimiv0%
Vladyslav Shapoval0%
Serhii Kosovskyi0%
Vladislav Voytsekhovskiy0%
Ivan Kogut0%
Mykola Kohut0%
Oleg Sokolov0%
Ernest Astakhov0%
Ruslan Dedukh0%
Klim Prykhodko0%
Maksym Mekhaniv0%
Andriy Riznyk0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Valerii Samar0%
Andriy Spivakov0%
Taras Galas0%
Diego Henrique0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (25)
€9m
CHO (21)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€4m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
YM (6)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (5)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
YM (7)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BUK (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bukovyna
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
Inhulets
Metal Kharkiv
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Yarud Mariupol'
Probiy Horodenka
UCSA
Prykarpattia
Nyva Ternopil
Chernihiv
Vorskla Poltava
Podillya Khmelnytskyi
Metalurh Zaporizhya
Polissya II