City Escaldes vs UE Santa Coloma II Result & Analysis

Date: 04/05/2025

Time: 10:00

Final 1-0

City Escaldes

44%

26%

30%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

UE Santa Coloma II

Andorra: 2a Divisió

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

City Escaldes are expected to take all three points against UE Santa Coloma II in their Andorra 2a Divisió match on May 4, 2025. The home side's recent form has been concerning, having suffered two straight defeats, but they have been strong at home, scoring an average of 1.67 goals and conceding 1.33. In contrast, UE Santa Coloma II have struggled on the road, scoring just 0.5 goals and conceding 1.83 against stronger opponents.

The model predicts a 44% chance of a home win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 12.1% probability.

The model's selection is the home win, and they also suggest "Over 1.5" goals, which has an 81.4% probability. City Escaldes have a 44% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 30% chance of losing.

Results analysis

The win extends City Escaldes' run, their second consecutive victory after two straight defeats. The final score was 1-0, a result that contradicts the model's expectations, with the actual total goals far exceeding the predicted 3.0. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 44%.

The model's call was correct, but the scoreline was not among the most likely outcomes, which included 1-1, 2-1, and 1-2. The model's selection was not among the suggested picks, but the Over 1.5 selection, with a probability of 81.4%, missed the mark, while the actual result had fewer than 1.5 goals.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

City Escaldes win✓ Hit

44.3%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

26.1%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

UE Santa Coloma II win✗ Miss

29.6%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

City Escaldes

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.7

Avg scored

1.9

Avg conceded

1.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.00	2.08	1.43	2.00	2.67	2.17
vs Stronger (10)	1.60	2.20	1.20	2.00	2.00	2.40
vs Similar (3)	3.33	1.67	2.00	2.00	6.00	1.00
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	15% (-9pp vs league)

This opponent (UE Santa Coloma II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

UE Santa Coloma II

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.9

Avg scored

1.2

Avg conceded

1.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.53	1.90	1.93	1.93	1.13	1.87
vs Stronger (6)	1.50	2.17	2.00	2.00	1.00	2.33
vs Similar (21)	1.48	1.76	1.70	1.70	1.27	1.82
vs Weaker (3)	2.00	2.33	3.00	3.00	0.00	1.00
Clean sheet %	17% (-8pp vs league)

This opponent (City Escaldes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

81.4%

Under 1.5

18.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

58.0%

Under 2.5

42.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

35.6%

Under 3.5

64.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

61.1%

38.9%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

12.1%

2-1

9.2%

1-2

7.4%

1-0 ✓

7.1%

2-0

6.9%

2-2

6.2%

0-0

6.0%

0-1

5.5%

City Escaldes goals ↓

	UE Santa Coloma II goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	5.5%	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%
1	7.1%	12%	7.4%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.9%	9.2%	6.2%	2.8%	0.9%
3	3.9%	5.2%	3.4%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.6%	2.2%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = City Escaldes goals (down), columns = UE Santa Coloma II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Carroi

2.19

Atlètic Amèrica

1.88

City Escaldes

1.44

UE Santa Coloma II

1.00

Ranger's II

0.62

City Escaldes is 0.44 points better than UE Santa Coloma II in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Carroi

2.50

Atlètic Amèrica

2.19

City Escaldes

1.88

UE Santa Coloma II

1.31

Ranger's II

1.00

City Escaldes is 0.56 goals better than UE Santa Coloma II in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.31).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Carroi

0.88

Atlètic Amèrica

1.00

UE Santa Coloma II

1.81

City Escaldes

1.81

Ranger's II

3.38

City Escaldes and UE Santa Coloma II are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	81.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RI (34)

€5m

ACI (35)

€5m

USC (26)

€5m

CAR (29)

€3m

CE (51)

€0m

City Escaldes's squad is €5m less valuable than UE Santa Coloma II's (€0m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RI (0)

€0m

ACI (0)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

CE (0)

€0m

USC (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RI (0)

€0m

ACI (0)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

CE (0)

€0m

USC (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

RI (0)

€0m

ACI (0)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

CE (0)

€0m

USC (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

City Escaldes vs UE Santa Coloma II · H/A from CE

Date	H/A	Game	Score
23/02/25	H	CE Vs UE Santa Coloma II	1-0
24/11/24	A	UE Santa Coloma II Vs CE	2-2
06/10/24	A	UE Santa Coloma II Vs CE	4-4

City Escaldes

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
06/04/25	A	Atlètic Amèrica Vs CE	2-0
23/02/25	H	CE Vs UE Santa Coloma II	1-0
15/02/25	A	Ranger's II Vs CE	1-6
08/02/25	A	Carroi Vs CE	3-1
02/02/25	A	Atlètic Amèrica Vs CE	1-3
26/01/25	H	CE Vs Atlètic Amèrica	4-2
14/12/24	H	CE Vs Ranger's II	1-4
01/12/24	H	CE Vs Carroi	1-2
24/11/24	A	UE Santa Coloma II Vs CE	2-2
27/10/24	H	CE Vs Carroi	0-1

UE Santa Coloma II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
13/04/25	A	Carroi Vs USC	1-0
05/04/25	H	USC Vs Ranger's II	3-1
29/03/25	H	USC Vs Ranger's II	4-1
23/02/25	A	City Escaldes Vs USC	1-0
16/02/25	A	Carroi Vs USC	2-0
09/02/25	A	Atlètic Amèrica Vs USC	3-0
25/01/25	H	USC Vs Carroi	0-4
18/01/25	A	Atlètic Amèrica Vs USC	0-2
01/12/24	A	Ranger's II Vs USC	2-1
24/11/24	H	USC Vs City Escaldes	2-2

📊 12. Overall Statistics

City Escaldes

Andorra: 2a Divisió

Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLWWL	1.31
Home	LLLWW	1.29
Away	DWLWL	1.33

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	38%	43%	33%
AVG goals	4.08	3.43	4.83
Over 1.5 %	85%	71%	100%
Over 2.5 %	77%	71%	83%
Over 3.5 %	62%	43%	83%
Scored	2.00	1.43	2.67
Conceded	2.08	2.00	2.17
BTTS	62%	43%	83%
Clean Sheet	15%	29%	0%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

UE Santa Coloma II

Andorra: 2a Divisió

Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWWL	0.92
Home	LDLWW	1.17
Away	WLLLL	0.67

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	27%	33%	21%
AVG goals	4.02	4.58	3.46
Over 1.5 %	90%	96%	83%
Over 2.5 %	79%	83%	75%
Over 3.5 %	58%	71%	46%
Scored	1.33	1.58	1.08
Conceded	2.69	3.00	2.38
BTTS	58%	62%	54%
Clean Sheet	10%	8%	12%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 13. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Carroi	16	35	69%	2.2	40	14	+26	3.4	75%	62%	44%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	3	0	0	0	2.5	0.9	-
2	Atlètic Amèrica	16	30	56%	1.9	35	16	+19	3.2	88%	56%	38%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	1.0	-
3	City Escaldes	16	23	44%	1.4	30	29	+1	3.7	75%	69%	56%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.9	1.8	-
4	UE Santa Coloma II	16	16	25%	1.0	21	29	-8	3.1	75%	56%	44%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	0	0	0	1.3	1.8	-
5	Ranger's II	16	10	19%	0.6	16	54	-38	4.4	88%	81%	69%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	0	0	0	1.0	3.4	-
6	Atlètic Club II	0	0	0%	0.0	0	0	+0	-	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	-

Andorra: 2a Divisió 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Andorra: 2a Divisió stats & trends →

← all matches

City Escaldes vs UE Santa Coloma II Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

City Escaldes

UE Santa Coloma II

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

City Escaldes

UE Santa Coloma II

📊 12. Overall Statistics

🏆 13. League Table

A Pro feature