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Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United Prediction & Stats

Date: 03/10/2026
Time: 14:00
Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
Vs
44%
26%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Cliftonville FC are tipped to win the match, with a 46% chance of triumph, a 26% chance of a draw and a 28% chance of Ballymena United taking the victory. The model expects an average of three goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 23%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12% probability. Cliftonville, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 2.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded, while Ballymena United, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.14 scored and 1.57 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.7%), Under 6.5 (96.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Under 5.5 (91.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.3%), Home +2 handicap (87.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.7%) and Home over 0.5 goals (82.2%). Both sides have recently suffered two straight defeats, with Cliftonville losing 0-2 to Dungannon Swifts and Ballymena United losing 0-2 to Glentoran.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cliftonville FC win
44.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United win
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L12L26L10W21W12L21W30W01L02LA·LAR28/03H·GLE07/04A·COL11/04H·DUN18/04A·LIN25/04H·DUN09/05H·CRU07/08A·BAN15/08A·LIN21/08H·DUN29/08
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.671.791.711.311.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.401.521.551.451.291.57
vs Weaker (5)2.202.402.672.671.502.00
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W22D11D32W00D12L23L30W12L02LH·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08A·CRU15/08H·GLE21/08
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.601.131.331.201.87
vs Stronger (12)1.001.580.801.601.141.57
vs Similar (18)1.281.611.301.201.252.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.4%
Under 1.5
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.1%
No
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.3%
1-0
7.1%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.4%
Cliftonville FC goals ↓
Ballymena United goals →
01234
06.0%5.4%4.4%1.9%0.7%
17.1%12%7.3%3.3%1.1%
26.9%9.2%6.2%2.8%0.9%
33.9%5.2%3.5%1.5%0.5%
41.6%2.2%1.5%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cliftonville FC goals (down), columns = Ballymena United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Cliftonville FC is 0.33 points better than Ballymena United in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Cliftonville FC is 0.23 goals better than Ballymena United in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Cliftonville FC is 0.04 goals worse than Ballymena United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Cliftonville FC or Draw
70.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
29%
covers Cliftonville FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC or Ballymena United
74.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
29%
covers Cliftonville FC + Ballymena United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ballymena United
55.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
26%
29%
covers Draw + Ballymena United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5
Over
81.4%
Under
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5
Over
50.1%
Under
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5
Over
23.8%
Under
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
Under
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Cliftonville FC, so a minus line means Cliftonville FC give that many goals of a start and Ballymena United receive them. At -1, Cliftonville FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Cliftonville FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC -2
10.2%
Draw -2
13.8%
Ballymena United +2
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC -1
23.9%
Draw -1
20.5%
Ballymena United +1
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC +1
70.5%
Draw +1
16.1%
Ballymena United -1
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Cliftonville FC)
Cliftonville FC +2
86.6%
Draw +2
8.7%
Ballymena United -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L24L00D21W11D10W20W00D00DA·LAR28/03H·GLE07/04A·COL11/04H·DUN18/04A·LIN25/04H·DUN09/05H·CRU07/08A·BAN15/08A·LIN21/08H·DUN29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.730.860.710.810.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.680.600.550.450.790.71
vs Weaker (5)1.601.402.001.671.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L10W11D00D01L13L10W12L00DH·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08A·CRU15/08H·GLE21/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.870.400.730.471.00
vs Stronger (12)0.331.000.401.000.291.00
vs Similar (18)0.500.780.400.600.621.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W02L10W00D01L11D10W01L02LA·LAR28/03H·GLE07/04A·COL11/04H·DUN18/04A·LIN25/04H·DUN09/05H·CRU07/08A·BAN15/08A·LIN21/08H·DUN29/08
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.930.931.000.500.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.720.921.001.000.500.86
vs Weaker (5)0.601.000.671.000.501.00
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W20W01L21W00D11D10W20W00D02LH·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04A·LIN08/08A·CRU15/08H·GLE21/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.730.730.600.730.87
vs Stronger (12)0.670.580.400.600.860.57
vs Similar (18)0.780.830.900.600.621.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.598.8%-------
Under 6.596.6%-------
Away under 3.5 goals95.3%-------
Under 5.591.4%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.0%-------
Home +2 handicap86.6%-------
Away under 2.5 goals84.9%-------
Over 1.581.4%-------
Home over 0.5 goals81.4%-------
Under 4.581.2%-------
Home under 2.5 goals76.2%-------
Away +2 handicap76.1%-------
Home or Away74.0%-------
Away over 0.5 goals73.7%-------
Home or Draw70.5%-------
Home +1 handicap70.5%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Ballymena United have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Ballymena United have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Ballymena United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Ballymena United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
CF wins
2
Draws
3
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cliftonville FC vs Ballymena United · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
21/03/26HCF Vs Ballymena United2-2
13/01/26ABallymena United Vs CF2-2
13/09/25HCF Vs Ballymena United3-2
05/04/25HCF Vs Ballymena United5-0
15/03/25ABallymena United Vs CF1-0
16/11/24HCF Vs Ballymena United0-1
21/09/24ABallymena United Vs CF3-2
20/01/24HCF Vs Ballymena United3-0

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts0-2
21/08/26ALinfield Vs CF1-0
15/08/26ABangor Vs CF0-3
07/08/26HCF Vs Crusaders FC2-1
09/05/26HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts1-2
25/04/26ALinfield Vs CF1-2
18/04/26HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts1-0
11/04/26AColeraine FC Vs CF6-2
07/04/26HCF Vs Glentoran1-2
28/03/26ALarne Vs CF2-0

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
21/08/26HBU Vs Glentoran0-2
15/08/26ACrusaders FC Vs BU2-1
08/08/26ALinfield Vs BU0-3
25/04/26ACrusaders FC Vs BU3-2
18/04/26HBU Vs Portadown1-2
15/04/26HBU Vs Bangor0-0
11/04/26ACarrick Rangers Vs BU2-3
07/04/26HBU Vs Glenavon FC1-1
21/03/26ACliftonville FC Vs BU2-2
14/03/26HBU Vs Carrick Rangers2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWLL1.46
HomeLWLWL1.58
AwayLLWWL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%46%38%
AVG goals2.943.042.85
Over 1.5 %80%83%77%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %34%38%31%
Scored1.501.621.38
Conceded1.441.421.46
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.04
HomeWDDLL1.21
AwayDWLWL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals2.822.623.00
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %52%42%62%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored1.261.291.23
Conceded1.561.331.77
BTTS54%54%54%
Clean Sheet20%25%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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