Cliftonville FC are tipped to win at home, a 53% chance that eclipses the 25% draw and 22% away win probabilities. The match is expected to see about 2.9 goals, with a 24% chance that the total will settle on two. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.9% probability, a tidy draw that matches the overall goal expectation. Cliftonville’s home form shows they average 1.54 goals scored and 1.31 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Coleraine’s away numbers are 1.25 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selection for the game is an 80.3% chance of Over 1.5 goals, a strong edge over the other outcomes. Recent form adds texture: Cliftonville have slipped after two straight defeats, losing 0-2 to Dungannon Swifts, whereas Coleraine are riding a two-game winning streak, beating Portadown 3-0. This blend of probabilities and form suggests a competitive contest with a clear home advantage.
Results analysis
The Cliftonville FC win extended their recent form, turning a run of two defeats into a decisive victory. The final score was 5-0, confirming the home win that the model had predicted with a 53% probability. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was correct, and the model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.3% chance, also hit. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 24% did not materialise, but the 5-0 result still aligned with the model’s overall assessment. Cliftonville’s strong home form and Coleraine’s away struggles were reflected in the outcome, and the model’s predictions largely came through.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Cliftonville FC win✓ Hit
52.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Cliftonville FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.27
1.94
1.06
1.43
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.23
1.50
1.54
1.31
0.78
1.78
vs Weaker (8)
3.00
0.62
3.67
0.00
2.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coleraine FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.17
1.73
0.67
1.20
1.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.29
1.56
0.78
1.25
1.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.67
0.89
2.00
0.50
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.3%
Under 1.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
56.4%
Under 2.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
34.0%
Under 3.5
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
8.5%
0-0
6.4%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
6.0%
2-2
5.5%
Cliftonville FC goals ↓
Coleraine FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.4%
4.8%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
1
8.5%
12%
6.0%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.8%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.3%
6.0%
3.3%
1.2%
0.4%
4
2.4%
2.7%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cliftonville FC goals (down), columns = Coleraine FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Cliftonville FC is 0.75 points better than Coleraine FC in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Cliftonville FC is 0.81 goals better than Coleraine FC in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Cliftonville FC is 0.67 goals better than Coleraine FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Cliftonville FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.06
0.31
0.79
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.68
0.69
0.38
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (8)
2.00
0.12
2.67
0.00
1.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coleraine FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.93
0.33
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.67
0.78
0.33
0.42
0.92
vs Weaker (9)
1.00
0.44
1.17
0.33
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Cliftonville FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.88
0.75
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.82
0.85
0.92
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Coleraine FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.80
0.33
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.62
0.78
0.44
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.44
0.83
0.17
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Coleraine FC have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Coleraine FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Coleraine FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Coleraine FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →