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Cliftonville FC vs Coleraine FC Result & Analysis

Date: 10/02/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 4-1
Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
Vs
72%
18%
10%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Cliftonville FC are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 72% chance to a home win, a 18% chance to a draw and only 10% to a Coleraine victory. The 3.2 expected goals and the 3-goal total probability of 22% point to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 11.7% chance. Cliftonville’s home form is strong, averaging 2.1 goals scored and only 0.9 conceded against similar opposition, while Coleraine’s away record is weaker, conceding 2.4 and scoring just 1.0. The model’s suggested picks include an 83.5% chance of Over 1.5 goals and a 71.5% chance of a home win, reflecting the home side’s dominance. The recent form notes add context: Cliftonville, after two straight defeats, still shows resilience at home, whereas Coleraine, riding a two-game winning run, has struggled defensively away. The prediction aligns with the final 4-1 outcome, confirming the model’s assessment.

Results analysis

The latest clash saw Cliftonville extend their recent form, adding a win to a sequence that had ended with two defeats, while Coleraine continued a two-game winning streak. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Cliftonville triumphed 4-1. With a 72% probability, the prediction of a home victory was spot on. The model’s other selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals, projected at 83.5%, and the home win at 71.5% both materialised. The match delivered a decisive 4-1 scoreline, confirming the model’s confidence in Cliftonville’s dominance and the high likelihood of a goal-rich encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cliftonville FC win✓ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
18.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC win✗ Miss
10.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W41W22D41W20W21W21W30W10W22DH·CRU25/11A·DUN02/12H·GLE09/12A·LOU16/12H·BAL23/12H·CRU26/12A·NEW13/01H·BAL20/01A·CAR26/01A·GLE06/02
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.100.732.270.601.930.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)2.001.112.100.901.891.33
vs Weaker (11)2.270.092.600.002.000.17
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D11D32W23L12L13L13L06L02L10WH·CAR25/11A·GLE02/12H·LOU09/12H·DUN16/12A·LIN22/12A·BAL26/12H·LOU30/12A·GLE13/01H·CAR20/01H·GLE27/01
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.871.471.531.002.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.112.161.221.891.002.40
vs Weaker (11)1.451.361.831.001.001.80
Clean sheet %20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.7%
Under 2.5
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.4%
Under 3.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
9.3%
1-0
9.0%
1-1
8.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
5.5%
0-0
4.9%
Cliftonville FC goals ↓
Coleraine FC goals →
01234
04.9%2.5%1.3%0.4%0.1%
19.0%8.7%3.2%0.9%0.2%
212%9.4%3.8%1.0%0.2%
39.3%7.5%3.0%0.8%0.2%
45.5%4.5%1.8%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Cliftonville FC goals (down), columns = Coleraine FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Cliftonville FC is 0.75 points better than Coleraine FC in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Cliftonville FC is 0.81 goals better than Coleraine FC in terms of goals scored per game (2.11 vs 1.30).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Cliftonville FC is 0.67 goals better than Coleraine FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L11D20W10W10W01L10W00D02LH·CRU25/11A·DUN02/12H·GLE09/12A·LOU16/12H·BAL23/12H·CRU26/12A·NEW13/01H·BAL20/01A·CAR26/01A·GLE06/02
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.431.270.270.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.740.631.000.400.440.89
vs Weaker (11)1.270.091.800.000.830.17
Clean sheet %67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D21W01L00D10W01L02L00D00DH·CAR25/11A·GLE02/12H·LOU09/12H·DUN16/12A·LIN22/12A·BAL26/12H·LOU30/12A·GLE13/01H·CAR20/01H·GLE27/01
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.700.330.530.270.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.210.840.220.560.201.10
vs Weaker (11)0.450.450.500.500.400.40
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W40W11D21W10W11D20W20W10W20WH·CRU25/11A·DUN02/12H·GLE09/12A·LOU16/12H·BAL23/12H·CRU26/12A·NEW13/01H·BAL20/01A·CAR26/01A·GLE06/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.170.301.000.331.330.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.260.471.100.501.440.44
vs Weaker (11)1.000.000.800.001.170.00
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Coleraine FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D11D22D12L03L12L04L02L10WH·CAR25/11A·GLE02/12H·LOU09/12H·DUN16/12A·LIN22/12A·BAL26/12H·LOU30/12A·GLE13/01H·CAR20/01H·GLE27/01
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.171.131.000.731.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.891.321.001.330.801.30
vs Weaker (11)1.000.911.330.500.601.40
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Coleraine FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.5%-------✓ Hit
Home win71.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Coleraine FC have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Coleraine FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Coleraine FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Cliftonville FC and Coleraine FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
4
CF wins
2
Draws
1
CF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Cliftonville FC vs Coleraine FC · H/A from CF
DateH/AGameScore
28/10/23AColeraine FC Vs CF1-2
26/09/23HCF Vs Coleraine FC5-0
10/05/23HCF Vs Coleraine FC2-1
07/04/23HCF Vs Coleraine FC2-2
21/01/23HCF Vs Coleraine FC2-2
22/10/22AColeraine FC Vs CF2-4
13/08/22AColeraine FC Vs CF3-1

Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/02/24AGlentoran Vs CF2-2
26/01/24ACarrick Rangers Vs CF0-1
20/01/24HCF Vs Ballymena United3-0
13/01/24ANewry City AFC Vs CF1-2
26/12/23HCF Vs Crusaders FC2-1
23/12/23HCF Vs Ballymena United2-0
16/12/23ALoughgall Vs CF1-4
09/12/23HCF Vs Glentoran2-2
02/12/23ADungannon Swifts Vs CF1-4
25/11/23HCF Vs Crusaders FC3-0

Coleraine FCColeraine FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/01/24HCF Vs Glenavon FC1-0
20/01/24HCF Vs Carrick Rangers0-2
13/01/24AGlentoran Vs CF6-0
30/12/23HCF Vs Loughgall1-3
26/12/23ABallymena United Vs CF3-1
22/12/23ALinfield Vs CF2-1
16/12/23HCF Vs Dungannon Swifts2-3
09/12/23HCF Vs Loughgall3-2
02/12/23AGlenavon FC Vs CF1-1
25/11/23HCF Vs Carrick Rangers1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Cliftonville FC
Cliftonville FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWD1.92
HomeWDWWW2.11
AwayWWWWD1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %58%63%52%
AVG goals3.023.043.00
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %70%67%74%
Over 3.5 %30%33%26%
Scored1.982.191.74
Conceded1.040.851.26
BTTS48%44%52%
Clean Sheet36%44%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Coleraine FC
Coleraine FC
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.40
HomeWLLLW1.76
AwayLDLLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%52%28%
AVG goals2.842.683.00
Over 1.5 %84%72%96%
Over 2.5 %58%52%64%
Over 3.5 %36%40%32%
Scored1.341.561.12
Conceded1.501.121.88
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3890
71%
2.4
8521+64
2.8
79%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.6
-
2LinfieldLinfield3885
68%
2.2
8240+42
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.1
-
3Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3875
61%
2.0
8043+37
3.2
87%
68%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.1
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4070
52%
1.8
6746+21
2.8
82%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.1
-
5GlentoranGlentoran3960
44%
1.5
7446+28
3.1
79%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
6Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3950
38%
1.3
5575-20
3.3
87%
64%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.41.9
-
7Coleraine FCColeraine FC4049
32%
1.2
5272-20
3.1
90%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
8Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3847
34%
1.2
6469-5
3.5
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.71.8
-
9LoughgallLoughgall3845
34%
1.2
6068-8
3.4
84%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3837
29%
1.0
4570-25
3.0
76%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.8
-
11Ballymena UnitedBallymena United4031
22%
0.8
3171-40
2.5
68%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.8
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3817
11%
0.4
2699-73
3.3
82%
63%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.6
-
13InstituteInstitute23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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